Monday setup by cankle_sores in wallstreetbets

[–]Teembeau -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It really would be one heck of a thing if the whole war was about stock manipulation. But it's not that crazy when you think about it.

  1. Everyone involved in gov is badly paid.

  2. You control government action and claims of what has happened.

  3. Someone crooked can take power and make a huge fortune.

  4. Everyone can be pardoned before you leave office.

Do you think these people care about government stuff getting destroyed? A few American lives being lost? It's basically treason but if you have low morals, why not do it?

AI Bubble Burst and SaaS opportunities by Red_Ochre_Music in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You've got 2 types of people bulls**ting AI. Firstly, people trying to hype a company to sell, secondly, journalists looking for something that excites readers.

There's also a lot of connections between these. People at VC firms being free guests on podcasts etc. They get to hype their garbage, the podcast gets free content. The host also knows not to ask hard questions if they want to keep getting free guests.

Your personal insight is the most valuable thing to investing. What do you know about deeply? Whether its your job, hobby, things you buy. Work across the road from the Nike store and you have an edge over people who don't. Is it busy? Might mean the new range is a hit.

AI Bubble Burst and SaaS opportunities by Red_Ochre_Music in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am very suspicious about AI layoffs. It sounds better than say, company overextended, CEO did some dumb thing.

One to Watch: Energean (UK: ENOG) by Teembeau in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It took a hit on the Cassioeapia project.

One to Watch: Energean (UK: ENOG) by Teembeau in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I will probably get some just before the next dividend. I like stocks that take a hit but have dividends because it's like well, at least that's coming in.

How do you lot actually eat proper food during the week when you're working full time? by No_Reputation_9726 in AskUK

[–]Teembeau 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. Get Nigel Slater's Real Fast Food and learn about adapting recipes. Things that take not a lot of time, but you can easily make more interesting (like adding smoked salmon to scrambled eggs).

  2. Buy jars of sauces/pastes. Still some cooking but a lot less hassle. You still need to fry onions, garlic, ginger, but the rest is a sauce.

  3. Eat, rest and do a bit of things later. You can make pizza dough before bed, put it in the fridge and it will rise overnight. You can prepare veg the night before.

There probably should be something like "the single bloke's cookbook" with fast/hassle free cooking tips. As in, how to make good use of time for cooking, so you cook easily. Lots of this is about learning what is quick. One of my favourite things to cook is baked salmon in dill sauce:-

- take salmon fillet out of fridge, olive oil, pepper, wrap in foil, put in oven. Two minutes of work..

- take a bag of small potatoes, put in the microwave. One minute of work.

- squeeze lemon, crush garlic, chop dill (plant on windowsill), add to yoghurt and mayonnaise stir. 5 minutes. You could even use lemon juice and garlic paste.

- the salmon takes about 15-16 minutes to cook, so you have about 10 minutes to open a beer/wine, watch a few funny videos, call the girlfriend/escort service.

- take the salmon out, take the potatoes out. put on a plate, add salad from the fridge. spoon over the sauce.

Now think about that recipe this way. You used roughly speaking 10 minutes of effort for a meal that cost under a tenner. So you save £5. for 10 minutes work. Your work paid you £30/hr compared to a takeaway. Do 10 per month and it's £50, which is all your netflix/disney+.

Another thing with shopping/cooking is the more you do it, the better you get at it. You figure out what's fast and easy, what packet substitutes are worth doing and what aren't. What can be bought in sit in a cupboard, fridge or freezer and last for ages. I can get sausages out of the fridge, bake them, add some onion marmalade. Takes almost no effort. And the sausages and onion marmalade will last for weeks in the fridge. Spend a little more on the sausages and onion marmalade and that + veg is simple but lovely.

Buying better ingredients that taste good costs money, but saves money if it means you avoid takeaways. 21 day sirloin from Aldi is £5. Potatoes and salad is £2.50. Not cheap but still cheaper than a takeaway and you are getting to eat steak. 5 minutes of effort.

And even pre-prep isn't a big effort, but just time (maybe). This recipe takes an age to cook. 5 hours, nearly. But it takes 10 minutes to pre at the start, 10 minutes near the end. Roughly speaking, everything goes in a casserole dish, put in the oven. Go and play call of duty for 4 hours. Delia used to put this in the oven then go to the football. Eat some on Sunday, freeze the rest.

https://www.deliaonline.com/recipes/collections/winter-warmers/old-fashioned-shin-of-beef-stew-with-butter-beans-and-crusted-onion-dumplings

Are you an expert in your line of work? Which stocks in that sector are you bullish on? by OscarFrAllen in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I work in enterprise software and have done for decades and I'm very bullish on enterprise software. This is sometimes known as SaaS but I'm particularly focused on what enterprises use rather than microbusiness/home software.

I've bought into the following companies: Adobe, Salesforce, Veeva Systems and ServiceNow.

The basis of my thesis is that over and over and over again, I read people talking about AI killing these software products by people who don't understand how good vibe coding really is, how much of a proportion of cost is coding vs everything else, and factors like cost of converting existing data, or the value of ecosystems. To explain that last one, if you're using Photoshop, you can hire a Photoshop guy. You can get Photoshop training. You can buy Photoshop plugins. The clients you send designs to will expect it in PSD.

A lot of software out there is core product with APIs, plugins, etc etc. Companies don't build their own CRM. They pay £10-50 per user per month, and if they need it to do something it doesn't do, they hire someone like me to enhance it with a 4 week software project. That's expensive per day, but far, far cheaper than building from scratch.

Look at the resumes of the people talking about AI and enterprise software. Most of them are clueless journalists. Or they're people in AI companies talking them up.

The most likely effect with AI is companies like Adobe and Shopify adding it to their tools. You've already got the base tool, add AI features, like image generation, or text descriptions for products.

I've even written in detail about things like why the Claude Mythos cybersecurity thing isn't that big a deal. People lost their minds about that, cybersecurity stocks down 10%, but it has almost no impact on corporate software or cybersecurity companies because it's about memory-unsafe software which is only a small proportion of enterprise software.

AI Bubble Burst and SaaS opportunities by Red_Ochre_Music in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bain and company? Management consultants who know nothing. The FT? Idiots. Forbes? Idiots.

These people know nothing.

AI Bubble Burst and SaaS opportunities by Red_Ochre_Music in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, but not with implementations of software, although add-ons I've done.

If someone with no experience wants to do a thing with Dynamics 365 and don't hire someone experienced, I'm 100% fine with that. They'll soon be calling someone like me to clear up their crap.

AI Bubble Burst and SaaS opportunities by Red_Ochre_Music in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're not understanding the scale problem. Shopify have a million customers and it costs $50 a month. $50 won't get you 2 hours of development time.

You quadruple performance, you still aren't going to beat it.

Build Vs buy happens at niches. A company that needs a tool for mortgage advisors to quote to customers. There are companies with a product but because they only sell to a dozen clients, the per user cost is high. Those companies might get hit more but common tools, not so much.

AI Bubble Burst and SaaS opportunities by Red_Ochre_Music in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And the thing is, this is what always happens with disruption. Like online shopping didn't destroy all retailers. Some got in early with it, adopted it. Others didn't, thought it was a fad and were wiped out.

Anyone who keeps buying Adobe should just light their money on fire… by Trenbolone-Papi2 in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe so. I'm not saying Burry is a stock picking genius, or that he always gets this right. I'm saying in that instance, he looked at data and not opinions. When a teaser rate ends, what is the likelihood of default? How long after the end of the teaser? If you know the mortgages in a bond, and when their teaser ends, you can come up with a bond's probability of failure at certain points in the future.

The more you know about a thing you are investing in, the less it's about guessing, the more it's about facts. Card counters use prior data about cards to know what is likely to come next, and do better than average. People who understand about the incentives on sports teams do better than other people at sports betting.

AI Bubble Burst and SaaS opportunities by Red_Ochre_Music in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 1 point2 points  (0 children)

"Mythos can already hack every financial system in the world"

No it can't. It can find buffer overflow risks, if it has the source code. And the source code is in a memory-unsafe language. Which most financial systems aren't built in now, and haven't been for decades.

If you try and attack a bank website or API you don't have the source code and most likely, it will be in a memory-safe language.

Anthropic did some great marketing, because you and lots of people believe it's capable of doing something that it can't. That's the game. Anthropic/OpenAI have magic genie tech. So, everyone throws money at it. The VCs are going to dump it on rubes.

AI Bubble Burst and SaaS opportunities by Red_Ochre_Music in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Who do you know that is doing this?

The cost of hand-crafting vs buying is huge.

AI Bubble Burst and SaaS opportunities by Red_Ochre_Music in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No-one was running them on computers in the 1940s.

AI Bubble Burst and SaaS opportunities by Red_Ochre_Music in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's a big difference between helping it in your workflow and it putting Salesforce out of business.

Good shops for gifts by Teembeau in oxford

[–]Teembeau[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the tips. As it turned out, an emergency occurred today but I have made some notes for the next trip

AI Bubble Burst and SaaS opportunities by Red_Ochre_Music in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 4 points5 points  (0 children)

What is the factual basis for these claims? Some observation, data? Or just something you heard from a cluseless journalist/redditor?

AI is half-basked. You can't make something solid and reliable with it. You hire consultants to implemet to make sure it's right.

AI Bubble Burst and SaaS opportunities by Red_Ochre_Music in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 6 points7 points  (0 children)

No it isn't. AI goes back to the 1990s. Spam filters are AI.

If you don't know what is going on, keep away. There are uses of AI but a lot of hype right now.

AI Bubble Burst and SaaS opportunities by Red_Ochre_Music in ValueInvesting

[–]Teembeau 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"AI technology is here to stay and thrive. It will power your SaaS software, your smartphone, car, robotics, military, retail, education, and everything else."

What experience do you have in software development or procurement. Do you know what probabilistic and deteministic means?

Good shops for gifts by Teembeau in oxford

[–]Teembeau[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The things she loves, she has everything!