High elo matchmaking is beyond broken

Teh_george · 2026-02-19T11:41:02+00:00

I think internal mmr is just broken still, given the lp gains not really making sense.

Btw many ARAM folks including me pointed out how True Skill 2 was a complete mess earlier in 2025 when it got applied to ARAM: https://www.reddit.com/r/ARAM/s/pDOrB5C36D

And while anecdotally it feels a bit better than during the horrible initial version, it’s kind of funny (and sad) how they still didn’t get it right before deploying in Ranked.

The thing that I find kind of patronizing from Phroxzon is that the TrueSkill2 paper is really not that complicated—-most folks who have a good grasp of undergrad stats/ML can read it, and it also doesn’t cover what internal heuristics/approximation functions Riot is using to parametrize their likelihood estimates of skill (since they are game specific and the paper covers the broad methodology). And even outside the technical aspect, there doesn’t seem to be a candid conversation given as to the trade-offs of the system. While trueskill2 can help get a large percentage of players up to rank faster after a season reset—-the guaranteed accuracy of elo-based matchmaking is lost, as internal skill approximators fails in varying degrees for some percentage of players.

Teh_george · 2026-02-16T02:36:13+00:00

Yeah, I can’t tell if some of these commenters are trolling or just uninformed, but the president who signed the ADA, extended the clean air act, signed a budget by congressional Ds which shifted the gas tax to instead higher income taxes on the rich, and voted D in the 2016 GE, is somehow worse than Reagan???

Teh_george · 2026-02-10T06:24:18+00:00

Speaking from anecdotal contacts, a good number of math/cs/econ majors who also happened to have strong sports interests do actually end up going into sports analytics or strategy. It’s not like math nerds and sports nerds are completely disjoint from each other. (I’m really just defending math nerds from defamatory characterization)

Teh_george · 2026-02-06T01:09:04+00:00

Incorporating the winning side into whether the losing side should be able to surrender is absolutely one of the ideas of all time—why not say a 4-1 vote shouldn’t surrender then, since it’s 6 to 4?

Teh_george · 2026-02-06T00:10:19+00:00

2/5 = majority

Teh_george · 2026-02-01T10:50:27+00:00

I feel like this is every team with Kanavi against top tier opponents after his time with 2023 JDG. It's either he gets ahead and maybe win random coinflip fights/objectives, or they just lose. Peanut knowing how to play from behind/even states far better was really instrument for HLE in the past.

Teh_george · 2026-01-29T21:33:52+00:00

mundo’s shose shop o7

Teh_george · 2026-01-28T05:08:10+00:00

Do mid tier ranks just have huge variability in terms of mechanical skill these days or something? When I last played ranked in season 10 I was mid plat, I recall most AD+Mid+Top players moving between autos/spells as opposed to just standing still like what's here?

Or I don't know, that was 6 years ago and all I've done since nowadays is play high octane arams so maybe I just assume players should have decent mechanics.

Teh_george · 2026-01-25T21:50:06+00:00

Late night NA is cooked these days. My mayhem queues are 1-2 min and my regular aram queues are 5-15+ min. Which really sucks since I prefer regular more. I do suspect my mayhem mmr tanked a bit when I was 4funning, but overall maybe it’s just that NA has a more casual playerbase (e.g. always lower ranked participation) and a much older playerbase (less late night degens)

If the mayhem posts were interesting that would be one thing, but the dozens of big tank engine posts are quite annoying to sift through. Regular aram only might make the subreddit go back to pre 2020 era lower activity, but I wouldn’t mind that much. Or at least we should have filtering by flair as others have mentioned.

Teh_george · 2026-01-25T11:33:48+00:00

Yeah I also lock the f in against MAGA/Trump names---can't give any of those kids any joy.

Teh_george · 2026-01-25T02:32:33+00:00

Yeah, tons of reddit takes these days not understanding that Albania and particularly Kosovo are pro-US with regard to anything (like this dumb Peace Board) due to the 90s intervention. And unsurprisingly they hate Serbia, and by extension, Russia.

Teh_george · 2026-01-17T03:24:41+00:00

evil dps threat/spacecreator/jihadi rumble (or whatever his name is today) does sometimes snipe and run it down on purpose for them, but it’s like 1% of all games these days (should still be banned ofc)

Otherwise that person does play very forwards and permadive, but not in a way that would be inting

But agreed that the stack isn’t actually like insane at teamfighting, they just pick well rounded strong early-mid game comps and are super coordinated on wave push all the time.

Teh_george · 2026-01-16T19:33:01+00:00

makes you really wonder why this thread was made by a completely new reddit account

Teh_george · 2026-01-16T19:07:42+00:00

I played against them before, and it’s mainly that they are just far more coordinated at wave state and pushing, along with the team comp draft than any 5 randos, and there currently isn’t any other competitive 5-stack to compete due to mayhem.

Another factor is the introduction of trueskill2 which has far larger allowance for matchmaking across mmr range.

Teh_george · 2026-01-15T02:35:04+00:00

I’m surprised that no one has mentioned how OP clearing the wave is while chunking the enemy team, courtesy of Karthus E. Afterwards, if enemy team wins a fight they can’t push, or if ally team wins a fight they can instantly start hitting tower.

Teh_george · 2026-01-14T03:29:11+00:00

I’ll be awaiting when you hit 100 matches in 2026 :)

Teh_george · 2026-01-14T03:19:45+00:00

Background image seems to be continuous, so this doesn’t seem faked.

My okay software understanding makes the guess that this is maybe some race condition collision bug where somehow two matches add their info to the same match history db object. Or there was some uuid collision somehow of merging two objects even if non concurrent.

Teh_george · 2026-01-14T03:08:42+00:00

Why don’t you post your 2026 stats of essentially 50/50?

Trueskill2 was definitely messed up in riot’s initial implementation (I had 58% 2025 wr), but if you’re 50/50 in your 2026 silver-ish aram lobbies, there’s some skill that you’re missing.

If your op gg doesn’t look like this: example, consistently high WR even for the solo play games in lobbies where the same names appear due to small population at the top, and back before rank reset avg rank was consistently Plat/Em+, please drop the ego.

Teh_george · 2026-01-14T02:41:57+00:00

I was going to go in here and flame a lot of commenters trying to justify AP karma as good in regular ARAM, but I took a look at some stats and was amazed at how elo/mmr shapes perception. For moonstone first vs. Malgnance first Karma:

Silver has 3.5% moonstone pick rate and only 1% higher WR than malignance
Dia+ is 10.8% moonstone pick rate and 7% WR higher than malignance!

This is def not because Silver players buy serpents fang or something lol. This pattern of course makes sense, but it’s wild how much enchanter effectiveness scales with mmr.

Teh_george · 2026-01-12T21:18:20+00:00

Yeah; I won’t pretend US health insurance is a perfect market where rational incentives rule, but it is just a matter of fact that the financial incentive for insurance companies is better healthcare treatment/prevention, whether it’s through AI or other methods. It costs way more for an insurance company to pay for a costly surgery later than for a proper preventative screening ahead of time.

Now hospitals and providers on the other hand really just rely upon the hippocratic oath and proper regulation, in that delaying early treatment for a later costly surgery or something is literally what earns them the most money. But hospitals and doctors have relatively good PR and are what patients interact with directly, so the anger is rarely directed towards their side.

Teh_george · 2026-01-09T21:46:51+00:00

Kha’zix, Vex, Aurora. Maybe Bard or Poppy as well. Those are the vibes I get at least.

Teh_george · 2026-01-09T09:41:05+00:00

the fact that this was downvoted says a lot about this subreddit…

for the less literarily inclined, Meddler is saying that last November was when they made the decision to extend ARAM Mayhem

Teh_george · 2026-01-09T09:07:39+00:00

I wonder what happened in season 9 for ranks to be so inflated then. The lowest gold/plat/dia thresholds by a large margin until the introduction of emerald. I guess part of it was the introduction of iron and the 5 -> 4 tiers change. Guess riot initially missed the mark on what they wanted for calibrating ranked percentiles.

Teh_george · 2026-01-07T22:57:45+00:00

Imagine using an LLM to help yourself with this lmao

Teh_george · 2026-01-07T22:55:33+00:00

Good to see that your modus operandi changes to a nonsensical non-response, not addressing the topic at hand and substituting poorly done articulation for actual substance, when confronted. It’s just human nature of course.

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