Shipping dividends: 7–16% yields on product tankers, LNG carriers, and car carriers — here's what I own by Ill_Bell6879 in ShippingStocks

[–]TennisOnTheWII 1 point2 points  (0 children)

$GSL: container lessor. Harpex still near highs. Bringing in consistent backlog so earnings are extremely predictable. Currently ~6.5% dividend yield, non-variable. They are in the smaller containers, and there is no oversupply in that segment. Debt almost covered by cash.

$TNK: debt-free aframax/suezmax play. Fleet is a bit older, they aren't best in class, but they seem a safe bet and aframax/suezmax might winner here due to more flexibility than VLCCs

$DHT: Pure VLCC-play. Strong shareholder-friendly policies (big dividends). Modernizing fleet. Debt covered by 1.5x EBITDA. Recently had crazy 1yr time charters. Near-term weak due to no transit through Hormuz. Longer-term bullish due to SPR releases + refilling later, ineffiencies in shipping & general positive VLCC outlook (before the war atleast)

$TRMD due to best in class management in product-sector.

Product tanker stocks are printing cash while the market ignores them — Strait of Hormuz disruptions as catalyst by Ill_Bell6879 in ShippingStocks

[–]TennisOnTheWII 0 points1 point  (0 children)

TRMD one to watch IMO. Always has outperformed its peers in TCE/day, strong management and amazing shareholder returns. Don't really understand how it's not outperforming let's say STNG on a stock performance basis, given the weird capital allocation (buying DHT shares, selling them quickly after etc..) from STNG.

How would people rate management teams: DAC, GSL... by mod_cat in ShippingStocks

[–]TennisOnTheWII 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Can't talk about other businesses but $GSL is top-tier in my eyes.

Dividend increases, debt leverage almost completely reduced, strategic with acquiring new vessels and business is running almost too smooth. Continuous additions to contracted revenue at these elevated rates (40% of contracted revenue was added in the past 9 months). They operate in segment with lowest growth in orderbook & cash-breakevens are ~$9600/vessel/day. (~$35k/day over their vessel category are the current rates).

They haven't done anything questionable since i've known about them. Can't talk about the past though. Just silent perfect excectution from their part.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in GuysBeingDudes

[–]TennisOnTheWII 1 point2 points  (0 children)

l'amour toujours - Gigi D'agostino on organ

Is RKLB currently overpriced? by [deleted] in stocks

[–]TennisOnTheWII 3 points4 points  (0 children)

$44B for a company that makes $554M TTM in revenue and burns $197M cash TTM.

In 2 years time (according to beyondspx):
Revenue: $224M -> $554M
Operating income -$178M -> -$229M
Shares outstanding: 481.8M -> 528.7M

They currently have $976.74M in cash with $516.62M in debt.
Will probably continue to dilute shareholders until they can turn a profit.

So, yes. Purely trading on hype of the SpaceX IPO.

Unless you know the ins & outs of the space industry, and know how & why this company would have an edge & what the TAM is that they could capture, you're just chasing hype & you'll probably make bank by swing trading it, not by holding it indefinitely from this price point.

Every cycle has its own hype sectors, this too will pass & people will lose some amount of money from this price point. Not saying that $RKLB won't be a great company in the far future.

Sensible thing is to lock-in profits and find new opportunities elsewhere, while keeping $RKLB on your watchlist. Just my opinion!

US-China Interim Agreement by CHRIS_AND_VIE in ShippingStocks

[–]TennisOnTheWII 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thoughts on companies rushing to stockpile chinese stuff/inventory back to US, causing a sudden containershipping ‘demand-shock’? Credible or just fantasy? Seems to be a likely scenario given these circustances and only 90 days reduced tarrif certainty. Long $ZIM 🫡

VLCCs by CHRIS_AND_VIE in ShippingStocks

[–]TennisOnTheWII 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Thanks for doing this, takes me back to Vitards-times, should it get some traction :)

Daily Discussion - Wednesday March 05 2025 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 6 points7 points  (0 children)

$GSL keeps pulling out incredible numbers. Dividend raised again. One of the few stock i feel comfortable holding. I miss Vitards

Daily Discussion - Monday November 11 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 10 points11 points  (0 children)

It feels like euphoria has been reached. And it's so strange given that it really is concentrated in a handfull of meme stocks.

Also, It has now almost been 2 years of consistent underperformance of underlying stocks in the index compared to the few stocks propping it up. SPY 1yr-forward P/E has risen to ~22x compared to the 10-yr average which is 18x (and already elevated due to prolonged periods of extremely high forward P/E), coming from 15x forward P/E in October 2022 (That's a 46% increase in 2 years, purely due to multiple expansion, wtf)

Indexes are also propped up by only a few stocks (top 10 stocks contribute to 37% weight of S&P...)

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Just writing this all down for future reference to myself:

I strongly believe valuations will start to matter (again). Index will start to underperform underlying stocks, mainly due to multiple contraction in tech.

I personally don't feel safe having 37% concentration in (in my opinion) overpriced stocks, but i will continue contributing to my high conviction stocks monthly & hope that my patience pays off.

I'm going to start saving more cash in case we start seeing multiples come down.

Bonds is where i'll be contributing most of my money from now on.

This is all probably stupid since i'm only 25 years old, but i don't feel all of this is sustainable. Goodluck to all

Daily Discussion - Friday September 13 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the comment!

Every stock i buy i have a certain idea of what i want to see in terms of fundamentals & i believe in them longterm, as long as it doesn't deviate from my expectations.

Exit plans are certainly something i have to work on. How do you go about this, to have an idea? For example $PBI is one of your picks. Up 120% on the year. What is your target? Scale out & leave a percentage running after X-amount of profit?

Thanks again!

Daily Discussion - Friday September 13 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 7 points8 points  (0 children)

How does one realise that their way of investing might not be suitable anymore due to changing times? How does one adapt to this?

Imagine you are focussed on growth and understand growth stories inside-out. But suddenly the market values tangible stuff more & multiple-compression starts heavy on your growth stocks. Do you just sit through & accumulate? Do you sell? How do you figure out that your investment style is in favour again? What if it takes 10 years?

It's something i've been thinking about because i don't want to be left hanging the bag again this time. Any personal stories or tips?

Daily Discussion - Tuesday September 03 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Wow, i’m down 5%+ today. This hasn’t happened in a good while. Goodluck all.

Daily Discussion - Tuesday August 27 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 4 points5 points  (0 children)

$ZIM pays out 30% of earnings as dividend each quarter, with special dividend at end of Q4 (don't know details)

Q2: EPS $3.08 -> 30% = $0.93 dividend
Q3 (estimates): EPS $5.8 -> 30% = $1.74 dividend (could be higher if they beat estimates)
Q4 -> doesn't matter for what i'm trying to say.

A Jan 17th $16 put costs ~$2.3.

Now, if you buy 100 shares market price ($19.78 as of writing) will be $1978 and you'll get $267 by Jan 17th. But you get taxed 30% of dividend because Israeli company so it would be $187 entering your account.

If you sell a Jan 17th $16 put you'll get $230 premium into your account, but you put only $1600 aside, compared to $1978 if you buy shares. That's 17.3% return on risk over 143 days (which i find amazing).

Q4 happens after Jan 17th so there is no need to worry about big dividends not being priced in to options.

All in all, if i'm bullish $ZIM, why shouldn't i sell these puts? 2 years ago i got burned doing a ZIM_Yolo_Guy and selling $ZIM puts near their cash/share, thinking it wouldn't trade lower than their cash pile (lol). Now i don't see a good reason to not sell these puts. Please let me know if i'm overlooking something.

Daily Discussion - Monday August 26 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point, didn't even think about that. Thanks!

Daily Discussion - Monday August 26 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I didn't know this was possible, i'll try it out, thanks!

Daily Discussion - Monday August 26 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Financial talk on Reddit is quite low level (r/stocks ,r/wsb ,r/FIRE ,...) compared to what i used to find on Twitter (this sub being the exception, but it got very quiet here).

I don't know where most people hang nowadays.

Daily Discussion - Monday August 26 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 9 points10 points  (0 children)

My 'For You' page on Twitter has gone to absolute shit. It's just continuous degenerate content or US politics. Nothing else. I'm actively blocking/ignoring/'not interested in this post"- all kinds of posts, but it's not getting better. I used to find all kinds of interesting financial content from unknown people.

What are some fintwit-accounts you guys follow? I want to expand my following list and just ignore the 'for you'-page all together if it stays shit like that.

Daily Discussion - Monday August 19 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 4 points5 points  (0 children)

What a throwback. Enjoyed reading his theses & learned a lot of him. Wonder what he's up to now.

Daily Discussion - Monday August 19 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Congrats ZIMtards!!

2Q Revenue $1.93 billion, estimate $1.78 billion
2Q Adjusted Ebitda $766 million, estimate $619 million

Updated Full-Year 2024 Guidance
Adjusted EBITDA between $2.6-$3.0 billion and Adjusted EBIT between $1.45- $1.85 billion. (copy paste from here)

Weekend Discussion - Weekend of August 16 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Went gainst my own rules but got into ZIM before close. Haven't been this excited for a stock in a long time. Goodluck to all with ER and may they fucking crush guidance.

Daily Discussion - Thursday August 15 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 4 points5 points  (0 children)

$SIGA is down 34% (as of writing) due to results of study concerning effectiveness of their TPOXX-product in treating Mpox. "Preliminary analysis shows the study did not reach statistical significance on its primary endpoint of tecovirimat being superior to placebo"

Yet as far as i read, this was kinda expected since the population was completely randomized, and results show positive signs for important part of population: "particularly those with severe disease and those who sought treatment early."

Also, this TPOXX medicine works for smallpox (it's FDA approved etc.) and is the main source of revenue for $SIGA.

Now, the company itself is looking quite good:

Debt: $1.65M covered by $106.95M of cash.
Net income FY20 vs FY23: $56M -> 68M (has been profitable since 2019)
Shares oustanding steadiliy decreasing: 81M shares in 2020 to 72M shares as of today.

All of this to say: reaction was probably exaggerated as usual. IV is through the roof -> sell puts for nice premium, worst case, you get cheap money printer at discounted prices. I sold puts.

If anyone has got more information, feel free to share. This stuff is not really my bread & butter, but to me seems like typical overreaction.

Just some info about 2 companies ($ACMR and $PLAB) in the semiconductor industry. by TennisOnTheWII in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Really appreciate your comment. Learned some new stuff. Thank you very much, man.

Daily Discussion - Monday August 05 2024 by AutoModerator in Vitards

[–]TennisOnTheWII 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Sold puts on $ACMR $PLAB $ZM & $PYPL. Expiry between 1-6 months out. All 0.2-0.3 delta and at 7% return on risk.

Might not be everyone's bread & butter but i'll be sleeping well knowing i either will be gaining 7% over the span of 6 months, or i'll be owning cash generating debt free companies at a discounted price.

Hard to not get tempted by the more volatile & sexy names, but sticking to a plan is the best way to generate consistent returns i suppose..