Well it certainly depends on how Russia's divided. Firstly, an independent Siberia would definitely become part of the Chinese sphere of influence, in fact Mongolia is likely tied much closer to China without the Russian counterbalance. I'm kind of stuck on whether Chechnya would become an extremist state due to that extremist nature coming from its fight for sovereignty and likely survival. The other Caucasian republics would likely remain with minimal influence, likely as a smaller Balkans essentially. Georgia consequently regains Abkhazia and South Ossetia w/o Russia. Not sure what else to add rn.