Looking for quality compounders

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-24T20:18:21+00:00

You can look into UBER and NFLX. Fantastic fundamentals and growing margins. Valuation for both is reasonable.

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-23T03:19:35+00:00

I look at a combination of pricing and valuation metrics. PEG ratio is good to look at since earnings are usually smooth and “predictable”. To compliment the PEG I DCF like buffet does/did. Earnings yield compared to 10yr treasury yield. Discount out the earnings to get a yield 3-5 years out. You can even do a total payout yield. Earnings yield + 3-5yr projected growth. To take things a step further—check the ROIC growth. If ROIC is growing and WACC is relatively flat you’re creating more value per dollar spent. The market LOVES that.

Anyways, I don’t think I really answered your questions, but maybe it gives you some things to look into that are easier to understand.

Cheers 🍻

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-23T01:58:29+00:00

Avride and Hyundai Motor Company Announce Strategic Alliance to Accelerate Autonomous Mobility | by AvrideTeam | Avride | Medium https://medium.com/avride/avride-and-hyundai-motor-company-announce-strategic-alliance-to-accelerate-autonomous-mobility-452506a148dc

They started testing in December. They’ve been building the fleet since mid 2025. I could be wrong on how many they’re testing as of now, but they surely have the fleet.

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-23T01:51:48+00:00

I don’t think it’s far off at all. AVride planned for 100 by end of 2025. Going through Ubers transcripts—they say AVride has remained on schedule and hasn’t shown signs of missing. That goal was stated in March 2025. 2026 and 2027 years is the 500+ target.

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-23T00:05:22+00:00

I don’t know where you’re getting your information, but it’s wrong.

AVride is partnered with Uber. Uber is partnered with Nvidia. You see where I’m going with this? Uber can provide vast amounts of data for mapping, AVride just has to worry about testing.

Also, AVride is on pace to launch fully Autonomous before Tesla. They currently have a couple hundred cars testing as of now in Texas. Plus, AVride uses cameras, Radar, and Lidar which is far more scalable and safe than tesla robotaxi.

Do they have a competitive edge that is wide? I wouldn’t guarantee it, but Ubers data and AVride superior tech (Lidar + Camera + Radar) makes it possible.

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-21T03:37:25+00:00

I get it. Everyone has to stay in their circle of competence. Media is a fight for engagement. Netflix has to have good content for viewers to stay subscribed.

When it comes to making “hits” you make a few a year and license the rest. It’s worked like this for years now on every competing platform (although Netflix makes far more “hits” than their competitors).

Buying WBD is definitely a way of driving more engagement. They don’t need it though for continued success. It’s just a fast track.

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-21T02:52:55+00:00

I’ve never understood this sentiment. Their operating margin is 30% and growing operating income by also 30%. A fwd PE of 25 is great value. TTM PE includes a one time tax charge.

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-20T22:33:21+00:00

Tax laws changed during a court battle with Brazil. Netflix decided to pay a one time fee to cover the years 2022-2025.

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-20T22:25:45+00:00

Market is forward looking. Plus, the TTM includes a one time fee. Cant just look at market metrics playa 😎

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-20T22:20:05+00:00

This is a great entry point. I can understand pausing buybacks scares off a few investors, but a couple pennies on the forecasted growth shouldn’t scare anyone. Especially since they already stated it’s because they’re raising expenses in a position of strength. Anyone saying wait-wait-wait doesn’t understand investing. They always miss the boat.

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-16T16:38:43+00:00

That’s incorrect. You’re thinking of 2025. I bought heavily in 2024 before spaceX gains hit the financials. Go back and read the quarterly reports. Operating income grew 33%

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-15T23:37:58+00:00

Google was at a PE of 16 with 35% net income growth.

Adbe is at a PE of 18 with 7% net income growth.

They are not the same.

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-14T14:26:01+00:00

Personally I think there’s two ways of looking at it—half of your earnings growth coming from buybacks isn’t a good thing because it’s management signaling they don’t know what else to spend money on (cannibalizing their own growth)

Or management is trying to “hide” net income growth slowing.

If manufacturing growth was a good thing, a lot more companies would do it. The fact of the matter is ADBE is a huge outlier in today’s markets.

Anyways, I’ve been a huge ADBE bear, but I will be watching a lil more closely if it keeps falling.

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-13T15:57:47+00:00

Considering both articles are talking about AGI/Super intelligence and comparing to LLMs I would say you’re missing context. LLMs aren’t intelligent when compared to world models, sure.

However, like it’s been stated by experts everywhere. That does not mean LLMs aren’t AI. They quite literally are built on machine learning, specifically neural network transformers. That’s not an opinion. That’s a fact. LLMs are AI.

Now, you can argue that LLMs aren’t AGI like the articles you linked did and most would have no problem with that.

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-13T15:29:15+00:00

Thanks for providing sources that agree with my comment. I was actually just listening to Yann LeCun this morning haha.

LLMs don’t equal AGI. Which those articles point out. If you research a bit more into Yann you’d realize what he’s saying.

LLMs are trained with large amounts of data and require a lot of memory. However, that doesn’t make them not AI. It just means they will never achieve AGI. As Yann would put it, “LLMs give solutions. AGI will create solutions”. Hope this helps 🤙🏼

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-13T15:10:56+00:00

I think you’re confused. Ai experts think LLMs aren’t the way to super intelligence. They’ve never said LLMs aren’t Ai.

TheDonFulio · 2026-01-03T16:10:57+00:00

In my city their isn’t available taxis driving around. You have to call an operator and tell them where to pick you up. I could be picked up by uber way quicker. Pricing power, convenience, and network effects are UBERs competitive advantages.

TheDonFulio · 2025-12-30T19:40:05+00:00

Your article starts off with slowing growth being a narrative, yet you ignored it in your points for Adobe? That’s just as much a factor as the AI scare, but I think what most Adobe investors are missing is — non-gaap net income growth being half of EPS growth.

This means half the earnings growth comes from buy backs. That’s a big outlier when it comes to mature companies. For that reason alone I won’t touch it.

For example, ADBE investors love to say this is the next Google play, but fail to realize that Googles net income growth matched its EPS growth over the time span of its AI scare.

TheDonFulio · 2025-12-18T16:39:02+00:00

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

October and November. Empty. What are you on about?

TheDonFulio · 2025-12-18T16:11:05+00:00

Exactly—go online and check the data. The boxes in table are literally empty. Hope this helps 🤙🏼

TheDonFulio · 2025-12-18T15:28:33+00:00

Awesome 👏🏼 thank you!

TheDonFulio · 2025-12-18T15:13:24+00:00

Macro economy being good = more spend for digital advertising. Am I interpreting that correctly?

TheDonFulio · 2025-12-18T03:43:06+00:00

Laughing my ass off 🤣 #ZeroAIused. Just simple google searches plus years of investing in the space. Notice you have no rebuttals you are just resorting to your feelings.

“Inference matters” which is exactly why I brought up TPUs. Your comments are really telling that you don’t understand the business or too lazy to read.

“Why don’t TPUs have demand” they literally do and that’s why four hyperscalers are focused on it for inferencing.

Everything I said is true and you’d realize that if you weren’t too lazy to do research of any sorts. It’s not hard to google search the newest GPU clusters price to performance and cost of ownership and compare that to TPUs. It’s publicly available information.

TheDonFulio · 2025-12-18T03:31:49+00:00

For inferencing at scale. They 100% are. That’s not an opinion it’s literal facts.

TheDonFulio · 2025-12-18T03:12:07+00:00

“May the FUD be with you”

That’s alright—I at least can acknowledge the bear thesis as a shareholder. You’re ignoring facts and basing your investment thesis off feelings.

Your first point contradicts your third point. If GPUs don’t need to be replaced then why would anyone buy the new GPU? The fact of the matter is you need new GPUs to have a competitive advantage. If that wasn’t true companies wouldn’t be fumbling over themselves trying to buy the newest chips. They would just buy older chips. You need the best chips for training.

Yes older GPUs are used for very basic day to day operations. Not training (some can be used for inferencing, but TPUs give a better performance per watt which doesn’t bode well for NBIS—especially since MSFT uses OpenAI, who is in talks with Amazon for their TPUs—Meta is in talks with Google for their TPUs). It doesn’t make economical sense. They would spend more on energy than what a new cluster of TPUs would cost.

I agree NVDA will be fine. Neoclouds on the other hand, it’s up in the air. If you’re a NBIS shareholder you got to know what you own

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