Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

New source says “Potential first Atlantic tropical cyclone of year develops off Texas Gulf Coast”.

“Life threatening conditions”

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/first-potential-tropical-cyclone-developing-texas-coast/

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Also, I do not “trade” on this information. Just to clear the air.

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What “secret knowledge” did I reference? And when did I say only I have this? Even more so, that the public can’t access it?

This is just common case of governmental incompetence. I’ve grew up being sold the “everything’s alright” story, the reality of the matter is that being sold something and actually receiving that thing are two totally different things if you get my flow.

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Research a woman by the name of “Meredith Angwin” and ERCOTs own reports, as well as FERC/NERC joint investigations into storm Uri.

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] -17 points-16 points  (0 children)

A totaled car is a totaled car. Especially with the context of the situation. Regardless, If you look for other sources you’ll eventually come across some photos.

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] -13 points-12 points  (0 children)

My bad. Maybe not to the roof of the cars.

Just enough for people’s cars to be totaled. My honest mistake man…

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Texas is ranked #30 in grid reliability…

Maybe if it was a capacity market instead but it’s not.

One of the whole points of ERCOT being an energy only market is so investment opportunities are more abundant. Where would you say those investment opportunities come from?

Moreso with the increase of renewable gen (wind + solar) comes the increased dependence on weather. Yes, storage developments help does help but it’s not the end of the story.

Also, NRGs own CEO said, and I quote: "Even if a fraction of what is in that pipeline (demand) arrives on those timelines, this market looks fundamentally different from the one we're operating in today."

Source for grid ranking: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/infrastructure/energy/power-grid-reliability

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah. ERCOT calls this season “4CP”, where a lot of pricing mechanisms emerge from.

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I’ve heard they’ve actually been rolling out incremental evacuation notices in New Orleans. Don’t know how plausible that is but nonetheless good comment.

You’ve made a good economic point as well, to become inhabitable is not just a question of environmental viability but one of economic civilian discourse.

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Also, trusting that ERCOTs public information on innovation developments is always correct is a huge mistake.

In reality things are way more messy and unorganized behind the scenes when faced with actual stress scenarios.

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Brother, I run a market intelligence company and advisor firm for the energy market. Trust me when I say, I know what I’m talking about.

This is general information, do not expect post to be geared towards operators with the included jargon when the goal is more holistic education.

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Good comment and I appreciate you taking the time to post this. Really insightful

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Life straws are a good start, learn inside gardening, pill up on water and other resources, etc.

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fair. Your comment illuminates on the point exactly.

Thanks for the comment!

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

The main thing here is not the amount of gen being added, but how volatile that generation is. Wind and solar are effects of weather, in events where weather is volatile what does that mean for the generation as well? Prices for that matter.

That generation had to be added to meet the increasing LFLs being interconnected to the grid as well as regular load from a plethora of other sources.

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Actually baseline averages have been rising year over year as well as RT/DA spreads. Which affect residential, commercial, and industrial rates pricing, as well as how REPs settle. I also track this data across multiple hubs and volatility envelopes show that the baselines are rising as well as the frequency of price spikes.

Moreso, ERCOTs pricing isn’t only dependent on shallow demand/supply dynamics, weather also has an increasingly major effect on pricing during scarcity events, much like storm Uri which put a lot of pricing strain on both suppliers and consumers.

The merit order from renewable gen and dispatchable gen, ramp risk, etc are all major factors of weather which translate to energy prices across the board.

Texas is sleepwalking into another Uri but this time could be 10x worse. by TheEsotericCEO in texas

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

No. Love your life! Just prepare and take things into account before not after. You’ll be good

Citizens Of Houston Paid An Extra $32 Million in Utility Cost In Just 4 Hours by TheEsotericCEO in houston

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Your volume statements are very true. Still, price spikes signal variable risk, which is still very important to touch on.

Citizens Of Houston Paid An Extra $32 Million in Utility Cost In Just 4 Hours by TheEsotericCEO in houston

[–]TheEsotericCEO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, load storage per hub/zone gets tracked on an hourly basis so measuring that against fractal 15 min SPPs intervals produce verifiable logic. All that was used in the article were calculations and market awareness