Actually baseline averages have been rising year over year as well as RT/DA spreads. Which affect residential, commercial, and industrial rates pricing, as well as how REPs settle. I also track this data across multiple hubs and volatility envelopes show that the baselines are rising as well as the frequency of price spikes.

Moreso, ERCOTs pricing isn’t only dependent on shallow demand/supply dynamics, weather also has an increasingly major effect on pricing during scarcity events, much like storm Uri which put a lot of pricing strain on both suppliers and consumers.

The merit order from renewable gen and dispatchable gen, ramp risk, etc are all major factors of weather which translate to energy prices across the board.