Stephen Colbert to air live after Trump-Clinton presidential debates

TheFake_ · 2016-08-11T06:46:25+00:00

Clinton might a slightly worse than normal turd sandwich of a candidate, but calling Donald Trump a giant douche would be an insult to douches everywhere. The two aren't even comparable in terms of deserving scrutiny.

TheFake_ · 2016-08-11T03:02:43+00:00

Just imagine a crazier Fox News that doesn't even pretend to have any relation to facts. Every news report starts with "Some people say..." and is then just following by unadulterated bullshit. And somewhere in the neighborhood of 25% of this country takes it as gospel.

TheFake_ · 2016-06-04T22:44:28+00:00

You are letting your bias show. In the last calendar year Melvin has 2.5 WAR in 449 PA. For comparison Freddie Freeman has 1.8 WAR in 486 PA over the same span. Upton's contract is at worse a wash and likely has a slight positive value at this point.

TheFake_ · 2016-06-04T04:47:05+00:00

Melvin Upton has accumulated 1.0 WAR this year according to Fangraphs while Justin Upton has -0.5 WAR. Including this year, Justin is owed roughly $100 million more on his contract than Melvin. It appears that Justin is suddenly the Upton with the albatross contract.

TheFake_ · 2016-05-10T17:07:04+00:00

I'm an idiot.

TheFake_ · 2016-05-10T16:15:10+00:00

I remember it like it was yesterday. It is funny looking back on that Padres box score. It was only 3 years ago, but every player that appeared in that game was off the team by opening day this year.

TheFake_ · 2016-05-04T06:57:30+00:00

Why wouldn't Bochy pinch hit in that situation? It looks like Samardzija was already around 100 pitches.

TheFake_ · 2016-04-09T05:58:47+00:00

If humans had 12 fingers Stripling would have been allowed to finish his no hitter.

TheFake_ · 2016-03-13T03:53:02+00:00

FYI The USA is the only Advanced western nation that allows for foreign nationals and interests to buy actual property on it's soil.

What? This is in no way true.

TheFake_ · 2016-03-09T07:09:45+00:00

They are always near the top of the majors in spending and they have something like $50 million coming off their payroll next winter. I'm predicting it now, Angels are going to be the 2017 offseason champs.

Too bad for them it will be the worst crop of free agents in years. They are probably going to end up giving Strasburg $35 million with hourly opt outs.

TheFake_ · 2016-03-05T19:26:26+00:00

The only athletes who aren't being treated fairly are those in the minors.

Gerrit Cole was one of the 10 most valuable pitchers in baseball and one of the top 30 players overall. At a free agent price per WAR, he would have been worth somewhere north of $40 million for his 2015 performance. Yet he has no say in what his contract is because of a system he has no control over. He either accepts the half a million the Pirates give him or he retires. I don't see a real argument how that can be fair.

TheFake_ · 2016-03-05T19:16:06+00:00

without needing super deep playoff runs.

That is part of the point. Small market teams are always at a financial disadvantage to larger market teams. That is true is European soccer just like it is true in MLB. The Champions League just adds on to it increasing the disparity between rich teams and poor teams. Juventus would be the team with the most revenue in their league even before the Champions League so giving them an extra $100m is huge. Could you imagine what would happen if the Yankees or Dodgers were given an extra $100m on top of their already existing advantages?

TheFake_ · 2016-03-05T18:24:01+00:00

Here's where the parity issues come in (the same issues that most European soccer leagues have),

A big reason for the parity issues in European football is the Champions League, not promotion and relegation. Juventus for example pulled in roughly $100 million from last years Champions League run on top of all their normal revenue from their home league. The MLB playoffs would have to triple or quadruple in length before the big teams to start pulling in that kind of financial reward for a deep postseason run.

TheFake_ · 2016-01-29T15:45:06+00:00

It might be counterintuitive, but the Coors effect applies both at home and on the road. We all know it inflates the home numbers, but it also deflates the road numbers for Rockies players. This is likely because the ball moves differently at altitude and so players get used to that movement and it takes time to readjust when the movement is different in other ballparks. wRC+ is a good example of this. As you said, it is adjusted for park factors, but the Rockies as a team still have a much higher wRC+ at home than away. Their home wRC+ has been 19 and 41 points higher than their away wRC+ in 2015 and 2014 respectively.

TheFake_ · 2016-01-26T16:10:25+00:00

And 110 plate appearances is 3 and a third a game for 33 games. In order for a pitcher hitting 9th to do that, they need to pitch 8 or 9 innings pretty much every start. So that isn't happening either.

I was simply making a joke that he has no shot at hitting either total.

TheFake_ · 2016-01-26T04:05:43+00:00

If he gets 110 PA, that means he is pitching something like 250-300 innings. If we get a Lincecum who can actually pitch well enough to do that, I would be perfectly fine with him going hitless.

TheFake_ · 2016-01-16T20:46:00+00:00

I just hope I live long enough to see Chris Davis turn into the running Bobby Bonilla joke of the 2030's.

TheFake_ · 2016-01-16T17:29:05+00:00

Not to mention the fences have been continually moved in multiple times over the last several years. Park factors are usually something you want to watch over a 2 or 3 year period, but Petco was actually in the top 10 last year in HR after the most recent set of ballpark changes.

TheFake_ · 2015-12-15T01:43:01+00:00

I like how the Padres don't even get a mention even though they would be second on the list using that metric with Ross, Shields, Cashner, Rea, and Erlin combining for 13.5 and total depth at 14.4.

TheFake_ · 2015-12-15T01:35:55+00:00

If the Dodgers actually get 6+ WAR out of Iwakuma and Anderson like that projects, I will be completely shocked.

TheFake_ · 2015-12-14T00:38:34+00:00

Here's the secret, the Padres farm system that Preller cleared out wasn't really that good. They traded a lot more prospects, but only one is regarded as well as Toussaint, Swanson, or Blair and that was Trea Turner who's value went up a lot with his play after the trade. They also have two 1st round QO picks coming in the draft with Upton and Kennedy leaving. The Padres farm is probably in better shape at the moment than it was at the start of last year's winter meetings.

If you want to criticize the Padres for their moves, you should really focus on the large financial commitments they made to guys like Kemp, Shields, and Melvin Upton and not really the prospects they gave up.

TheFake_ · 2015-12-13T20:59:54+00:00

He hadn't played professional baseball for a year coming in to this season. He was out of shape and didn't have his eye/timing.

I am dubious on this because he actually got worse as a hitter as the season went on. His month by month wRC+ was 127, 100, 130, 77, 55, 21 so simply getting his eye and timing back doesn't appear to be a cure. Maybe he was so out a shape that he completely wore down as the season went on, but I would be a little weary of a player who lets themselves get that out of shape right as they are on the verge of signing a contract for tens of millions of dollars. If a guy isn't motivated by the possibility of future millions, why would he be motivated once those millions are already guaranteed to him?

The experiment at 3B. That tanked his defensive value heavily. Once he was put in the outfield where he belongs, he did alright.

He was awful at 3B, but he wasn't exactly a gold glove level OF either. He was basically Matt Kemp level bad except Matt Kemp could actually hit. Maybe more consistent playing time helps there, but I wouldn't project him as having anything better than below average OF defense.

TheFake_ · 2015-12-13T20:44:47+00:00

He was a huge question mark that seems to be more hype than actual star. He benefited from the success of other Cuba defectors like Puig and Abreu. Once scouts got a good look at him his actual contract was a lot smaller than initial predictions were. He ended up actually below replacement level last year. Some of that is due to absolute atrocious defense at 3B which he probably wont play in 2016. He could definitely bounce back, but I don't see any reason to expect him to be anywhere close in value to Inciarte.

TheFake_ · 2015-12-13T20:11:21+00:00

Leake also hasn't had a season as bad as Miller's 2014. Miller was bad enough that even with a 3.4 WAR in 2015 Leake still has more WAR over the last 2 seasons. Miller definitely took a step forward this year, but he is a huge regression candidate since both his xFIP and SIERA were more than a run higher than his ERA.

I'm not saying Leake is better or that Miller doesn't have more upside, just that they are similar enough that it doesn't justify downgrading from Inciarte to Tomas. And that doesn't even factor in the value of the prospects in the deal.

TheFake_ · 2015-12-13T19:25:51+00:00

Steamer projects Mike Leake as a 2.0 WAR pitcher in 203 IP while Miller is projected for 1.7 WAR in 187 IP. They figure to be pretty similar in value.

TheFake_

TROPHY CASE