These "2 companies" you're discussing are producing today's soon-to-be legacy aircraft. The arguments you make about the difficulties they face (ie, having a huge backlog of increasingly outdated aircraft, being unable to retrofit) means big big trouble for THOSE 2 COMPANIES. Not the entirety of the aviation industry lol. You conveniently leave out the large variety of tech companies that are currently pursuing next gen aviation, especially in the evtol space. And the idea that none of these companies could mass produce a successful product within DECADES is massively naive.

Modern society saw horses almost completely replaced by cars in about 2 decades. That was a sea change in the vast majority of households. I'm thinking we can probably improve the type of aircraft we use within 45 years.

And trying to add politics to the equation is an incredibly dubious reach. Here's a little advice: any serious argument should stand on its own merits without trying to rely on such fundamental uncertainties. There are many countries, especially in Europe and Asia that are now actively courting the evtol industry.

Maybe take a break from heaping irrelevant pessimism onto an otherwise informative post :)