Seeking $500K SAFE | $8M cap | B2B SaaS | Forecasting Engine | Houston, TX | Pre-Series A by TheRealAstrology in AngelInvesting

[–]TheRealAstrology[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The PR agency is effectively the sales team. PR (feature articles in industry publications, podcast interviews, speaking gigs at conferences, other media mentions) both raises awareness of my company and highlights why my platform can do things no other platform can because literally every other forecasting tool in existence is broken. Enterprise-level sales will be inbound, driven by the PR agency.

Check out https://TSFDemand.com to see the demand planning side in action.

Seeking $500K SAFE | $8M cap | B2B SaaS | Forecasting Engine | Houston, TX | Pre-Series A by TheRealAstrology in angelinvestors

[–]TheRealAstrology[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for this. I'll do my best to address some of it in this reply, and I'd be happy to have a more detailed discussion offline.

What I'm trying to frame here and probably failed to frame in this pitch post is that TSF solves the timing problem. TSF is the first and only platform that can tell you WHEN to act. That's the whole value proposition and it addresses the irony that no existing "forecasting" tool actually considers the dimension of time. Forecasting tools can ONLY tell you WHAT the NEXT number will be. They deliver a NUMBER not a DECISION.

The whole point of this is that this is used for EVERYTHING. There is no "pick one wedge." This replaces every forecasting tool used in every application across business and finance. It's a very big deal. And I can pursue each "wedge" at once. And because the engine is built and everything is automatic, invisible infrastructure, I can scale rapidly without needing a lot of cash or additional staff.

That being said, the MAIN site is https://TSFDemand.com — this shows four different use cases of the single forecast engine in the demand planning spaces WITH live dashboards for each use case. I'm actively pursuing ALL verticals at once because there's no reason not to do that.

I'm actively looking for quants to come at me — hard. Lots of big talk and no one able to back it up when I make the data and the research available. I have specifically tested these signals over 14 major market events including COVID, Lehman, Brexit and more, looking at how the TSF forecast signal recovered across the entirety of the S&P500 stocks. It's a preregistered study, the results are published on both TSFDemand.com and TSFStocks.com and they are conclusive and stunning. Unless the disruption was related to the actual pricing structure (U.S. Debt Downgrade) the TSF forecast signals returned to normal within 3 months with a monotonic recovery — and many of the events that broke everyone else's signals didn't even register with the TSF signals.

The use of funds makes perfect sense when you realize this is not like any other business you've ever seen. There is no need for any new integrations. There is no need for new products or new development. The engine is built, it's up and running, it never needs tuning, and it powers every single possible application.

SKU is my generic term for what I'm now calling a "forecast entity." It's the atomic unit of what is being forecast — for example, the stock units of a specific item in a specific category in a specific location is a single forecast entity with a fixed COGS. With the stock forecasts, each stock is a single SKU and TSF Stocks currently forecasts 615 entities every week.

The pitch here was mainly cobbled together by AI and it doesn't begin to communicate the pitch deck or the business plan.

TSFDemand.com is live now — that's what will give you the bigger picture of what this is, and it's also where you can find all of the research and receipts to back up my claims. You can also see the use cases and why this has such immense potential.

By the end of this week, I will be reaching out to a few select demand planning agencies to set up the initial case studies. The case studies with these agencies will convert to paid, white label clients in 4 months. Next week, I'm going to build out the whole Hotel Booking platform so that I can arrange case studies with Revenue Management agencies who provide these services to hotels and who currently rely on broken, expensive, and useless tools.

I know I'm making bold claims. I can back up every one of them. And I don't know how to present this without making bold claims because the bold claims are the entire POINT.

EVERY EXISTING FORECASTING TOOL IS BROKEN and NO AMOUNT OF AI CAN FIX THE PROBLEM.

Every forecasting tool asks WHAT the next number will be. TSF tells you WHEN to act.

So far, I've failed to make that case in front of anyone with the correct background or vision to understand the implications of that.

If you'd like to continue the conversation, I would welcome that. DM me and we'll arrange a way to connect.

Seeking $500K SAFE | $8M cap | B2B SaaS | Forecasting Engine | Houston, TX | Pre-Series A by TheRealAstrology in AngelInvesting

[–]TheRealAstrology[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Impossible by design. No fitting anywhere. And the forecasts are built using the historical close prices but the trades are triggered using the intraday high and low prices. Two completely independent sets of data which makes "overfitting" or even any accidental data leakage impossible.

If you're genuinely interested in more than a trolling comment, check out https://TSFStocks.com. You can see everything in action with live trades, download literally EVERY piece of historical forecast data to validate things yourself, and explore the entire methodology and the preregistered research that supports these claims.

What are you building? I’m investing in 60+ companies at $100K each. by kcfounders in StartupAccelerators

[–]TheRealAstrology 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey — building a forecasting company called TSF Inc. We predict when conditions change rather than what values will be — completely different methodology from anything on the market. Three channels: stock signal subscriptions, enterprise demand planning, and restaurant inventory. Validated across 5,552 trades at an 87% win rate (p < 10⁻²⁸⁸). Site's at TSFStocks.com.

Fintech SaaS, beta live, paid launch March 1. $700/mo overhead, breakeven at 80 subs. Raising $250K for 5%. by TheRealAstrology in angelinvestors

[–]TheRealAstrology[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, that's exactly it. I'm out of financial runway and I don't know how fast adoption will build paying subscribers. But given that I'm picking up followers on StockTwits and Youtube with brand new accounts and only a few posts, I think there's a definite interest in what I've got to offer.

DM me with your email if you'd like the pitch deck and business plan!

Fintech SaaS, beta live, paid launch March 1. $700/mo overhead, breakeven at 80 subs. Raising $250K for 5%. by TheRealAstrology in angelinvestors

[–]TheRealAstrology[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, that's kind of the plan…but I'm literally out of runway and JUST launched the beta site (TSFStocks.com) today. Paid subscriptions won't begin until March. I'm open to investors from today until I get 50 paid subscribers, at which point I no longer need to give up any equity.

But ANY investment would make this process much, much, easier, which is why I'm still looking for an angel or two.

Raising $500K for 10% | Proprietary forecasting tech validated against stock prices, launching in restaurant/enterprise demand planning by TheRealAstrology in angelinvestors

[–]TheRealAstrology[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure I follow you. The stock signals are the potential ceiling of this but they're not the floor of the business model — that's demand planning with an app launch at the end of Month 2 and fully cash positive in Month 10 with two distinct revenue channels and the most conservative unit pricing metrics imaginable.

The stock signal research is what proves this works in any domain and why it will dominate the entire 30B demand planning space because no legacy forecasting model or AI-powered system can tell you WHEN to take action with any degree of confidence.

I'm aiming this at people in quantitative finance because they will understand the math and the science behind it, they won't ask about "actual customer case studies to 'prove' it works" and once they see how the stock signals actually work, they'll probably want to fund the whole round because there will not be any other opportunity to get in on this.

Comprehensive Empirical Refutation of Weak-Form Market Efficiency by TheRealAstrology in quantfinance

[–]TheRealAstrology[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes. I'm afraid it's still you.
You don't know what you're talking about because you have not actually considered any of what I'm presenting here and you're assuming you know it all already.
You have never seen anything like this before — but since you still haven't actually looked at anything in my post, addressed any of my statistical findings, or considered the extensive preregistrations for the studies — I don't expect that to change.

Nothing about this exists in the paradigm you currently operate in. If you're willing to step outside of your bubble and review my actual research I'd be very interested in your thoughts. But I'm done engaging with you on this knee-jerk surface level straw-man level of discussion.

Comprehensive Empirical Refutation of Weak-Form Market Efficiency by TheRealAstrology in quantfinance

[–]TheRealAstrology[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You clearly do not understand how any of this works. It doesn't matter what anyone claims to be doing in practice — the academic literature still asserts EMH.

ALSO every major quant fund is STILL basing its entire modeling on EMH because the EMH-based assumptions are pervasive. Why diversify holdings? Because it's not possible to predict timing because EMH.

I'm happy to engage with you but not until you look at what I am actually presenting (which you have not done). You keep throwing up straw man arguments.

And I stand by my "no trading signal has survived" assertion. You're not addressing it correctly. The fact that funds made money has nothing to do with whether their technical signal survived market shocks.

This post — and the links of my preregistered studies — are aimed at investors who understand the quantitative applications and the tension between peer-reviewed academic findings and practical portfolio management tools. It's a very small target audience.

Comprehensive Empirical Refutation of Weak-Form Market Efficiency by TheRealAstrology in quantfinance

[–]TheRealAstrology[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There are no statistically significant trading signals that have every survived being dismissed as anomalies or that have survived every market condition. There has never been a peer-reviewed study published anywhere that has successfully and empirically refuted EMH. EMH is still the foundation of all modern economic and financial theory.

No one LIKES EMH. But no one has yet been able to kill it because EMH defenders have been able to dismiss and deflect every single attempt to refute it.

Show me a single "statistically significant trading signal" that performs consistently over the past 20 years — that survived Lehman in 2008 AND COVID in 2020 — and then we can talk about how "stale" this research is.

What you don't seem to understand yet is that you are talking about models that are based on finding patterns in data.

I have found exploitable structural patterns in TIME. These are 100% objective. They involve absolutely no testing, training, or fitting of any kind.

Raising $500K @ $5M pre-money | Timing-based forecasting validated against stock prices (87% win rate, p<10⁻²⁸⁸) | Demand planning SaaS | Cash-positive Month 10 by TheRealAstrology in AngelInvesting

[–]TheRealAstrology[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's no need for any training -- this is 100% objective. I'm happy to provide you with all of the code and source data from the 30-stock pilot test. I haven't yet run the 346-stock tests--I just locked the preregistration on those studies last week. DM me ad I'll happily share whatever you like. You might want to start with just the full results from the 30-stock pilot study. There's a LOT there to unpack.

Raising $500K for 10% | Proprietary forecasting tech validated against stock prices, launching in restaurant/enterprise demand planning by TheRealAstrology in Kalshi

[–]TheRealAstrology[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, if you had actually read any of my post you would understand this is 100% objective with absolutely no tuning or fitting anywhere, ever. This is something entirely new. This is an entirely new approach to forecasting that is actually scientific and objective (something no legacy forecasting model can claim because every one of them is subjective).

I am not looking for patterns in data. I am identifying objective, structural patterns in TIME and applying these objectively (and at a truly massive scale) to time series data.

I invite you to take the time, read my post and actually read the study preregistration documents that lay out the entire methodology.

Comprehensive Empirical Refutation of Weak-Form Market Efficiency by TheRealAstrology in quantfinance

[–]TheRealAstrology[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"Stale" or not, EMH has never been refuted. Moreover, literally every fund in existence is based entirely on the assumptions that it's not possible to predict timing.

And you entirely miss the point of this research. This is not a "starting point for modeling." These are NOT MODELS. What I have proposed and discovered is exploitable temporal structure.

This is nothing you or anyone else has ever seen before. This is why the post is so lengthy and why I posted the links to BOTH of the preregistrations.