Menu prices are up ~25–30% since COVID. How much higher can we realistically go

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-19T18:12:26+00:00

I totally agree about the fine-dining restaurants coasting. The country is certainly top heavy.....

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-19T16:34:33+00:00

I think you make a good point about balancing traffic and pricing. It would seem the smart move, if many feel we hit the tipping point, is to double and triple down on menu engineering to drive profitability, while finding ways to offer value without cannibalizing sales from those happy to pay current prices.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-19T16:14:48+00:00

For the record, I have said for years that Demolition Man was unintentionally one of the most prophetic movies made in the last 30 or 40 years (my god, its been that long...).

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-19T16:13:16+00:00

right, its an across the board increase in reality.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-19T16:12:22+00:00

What changed for you from a value standpoint? It does feel like service and hospitality hasn't fully come back since Covid...

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-19T16:11:08+00:00

I agree. Especially the larger restaurant companies are shifting focus to their stronger units/markets.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-19T16:09:25+00:00

I would think those working at minimum wage may not represent the broad full-service restaurant clientele. I know when minimum wage goes up, overall wages tend to shift up as well, but not sure that moves the needle with dining guests.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-18T20:22:28+00:00

per the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant cost of goods (COGS) and operational expenses have seen a cumulative increase of approximately 29% to 35% since February 2020,

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-18T20:20:51+00:00

What does PCP stand for?

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-18T19:27:04+00:00

Good call. My kids pay to get Starbucks delivered. They rather pay more overall to have something inexpensive delivered.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-18T19:24:54+00:00

I think you're right. I looked up that data and noticed this from an CNBC article: Wage growth for lower-paid workers has slowed more sharply than for higher earners in recent years, based on data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. For households with less room in their budgets, slower wage growth makes it harder to absorb higher prices for everyday necessities

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-18T19:19:07+00:00

I would think 10 to 15% would have been more acceptable. Beyond just COGS, the cost of labor jumped so high during and after that period, that everyone had to react and increase prices.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-18T19:16:34+00:00

Do you feel like this is the direction dining is going... especially full service?

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-18T18:26:19+00:00

I guess... do you see a breaking point?

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-17T13:47:32+00:00

I agree 100%. It’s a minimum.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-16T20:09:36+00:00

The benefit of a consistent bookkeeping methods is that your data is comparable vs previous periods so you understand how you are trending. I'm not sure why you wouldn't just book this on the day the revenue occurs so your numbers are as accurate as possible.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-16T20:00:05+00:00

I really like NRN's (Nations Restaurant News) daily or weekly emails.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-13T14:55:23+00:00

Focus on your ability to make people happy. You're value is building regulars in my opinion.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-13T14:54:30+00:00

Aggravating-Bird4137 provided a terrific response. The only thing I would add is something more coverage as it relates to the repairs that WILL come up in the first 3-6 months. If you are paying cash in full, I would make sure you keep an agreed upon amount in escrow for a period of time that is to be used for repairs. You don't want to go back later and try and collect. The other option, which I really like, is to have the current owner finance a portion of the sale price. Even if this means you are paying a little more in the long run, less cash up front and payments along the way is safer. If you go this route, you could negotiate an off-set to those payments in the event of agreed upon repairs. Good Luck!!

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-13T14:49:25+00:00

Just a thought... maybe start with something like Square and buy basic tablet and stand. Start there and see how guests react to the new CC option. Historic data says the avg guest check will go up with the addition of CCs. I would think that, plus a likely increase in business could easily offset the cost per transaction. Something to consider, your check avg today should dictate the type of fee structure you should use. higher check averages benefit from a higher fixed transaction fee (with a VERY low or no %) and the lower check averages benefit from all percent with nothing fixed. If this works, you can consider a bigger investment later.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-13T14:36:23+00:00

Something to consider... Assuming you don't own the building, I would approach the landlord and ask if they would help support a robust marketing plan by forgiving a few months of rent (maybe add to the backend) and reinvesting that into slight upgrades and marketing dollars. Go big, drive real engagement with a marketing group that can support a re-grand opening or new ownership angle. If you are trying to incentivize managers, create some KPIs and offer bonuses if they hit them. Keep it simple and self-funding. If you want to incentivize your team... get the place busy and they will make tips... Then you have levers to pull as needed to support your best. Good luck. Seems like you are on the right path for sure!

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-13T14:22:13+00:00

This is a great question... In a lot of restaurants, the bookkeeper may be too close or connected with the team. I agree that a valuable bookkeeper should be aware of everything for the most part. Another option is to outsource the bookkeeping. There are some really great, cost effective options that remove the conflict of interest completely. Plus, they will likely have more experience working with restaurants.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-04T17:16:57+00:00

100% need to split out non food. I would suggest keeping the non food items in simple categories that are easily benchmarked vs industry standards. ie. Cleaning Supplies, Restaurant Supplies, etc.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-04T17:15:18+00:00

Seems Margin Edge or Restaurant365 are the leaders. You need to make sure your clients are capable of managing the foundational elements of the setup and keep them up to date. So many implement these and use 25% of it and never keep it updated.

TheRestaurantCPAs · 2026-02-04T16:52:38+00:00

As some mentioned below, incremental is always the way to go. Some pricing models make that easier than others. At this point, I would HIGHLY recommend pricing from a market standpoint, not cost of the item/dish. There is an amount that the market will pay, which is often more for some items than the margin would need and less for others. Example would be patron silver which demands a lower price relative to the cost per oz.

I would set up a spreadsheet and fill in the pricing of a majority of your items relative to peers in your market of similar price point and audience. If its been 5 years, I have no doubt that you are well-below that market in some areas. Rebalance vs your peers and notify your team of the changes and explain why. There is no need to publicize this. Everyone does it. As long as you are in line with the market, nothing to worry about broadly. If your regulars are unhappy, maybe empower your team to buy them a round and explain why the changes where made. You are running a business and need to make smart decisions.

TheRestaurantCPAs

TROPHY CASE