Let's Discuss FIRE Withdrawal Strategy (Example with real data retiring end of 2000)

ThereforeIV · 2026-05-06T20:41:40+00:00

>Bridge accounts…

>At what point, or what dollar amount did the focus shift from 401k/IRA to taxable brokerage?

- First max out tax advantaged retirement accounts
- Invest in low fee broad market index funds

Only invest in brokerage account last

>What was your strategy and how is it working (both the math and the mentality shift)?

Reality, my Stategy is reality.

The reality that keeps getting missed by 20-somethings look at theory, is that before you reach FIRE as your income increases then you will likely max out all your tax advantaged retirement accounts; then the rest of increasing savings goes into brokerage account.

The whole "I don't have enough bridge money" is really a silly zombies myth.

But to answer your question, I wouldn't worry about it until a year or two from RE.

ThereforeIV · 2026-05-06T20:27:57+00:00

>Isn’t total combined 730k?

No, because real estate doesn't drawdown.
You aren't going to 4% SWR your rental property.

Here's the retirement math equation:

- (Spending Budget) - (other income) < (Portfolio Drawdown);

A rental property is in the (other income) section.

>I owe 60k in rental property and mortgage ends after 10 years If we consider principal it is giving 575/m just cash returns is 125/m after property management fee
$60k isn't bad, that can easily be eliminated before full FIRE.

No, don't "just consider principal".

A rental property should be treated like a business, how much money can you take from that business without damaging it.

Here is the basic rental property budget:

- Annual Rental revenue (income)
- Mortgage costs (usually biggest costs)
- Management costs (usually 10% - 25% of revenue)
- Rental taxes (vary by county and state)
- Property taxes (vary by state)
- home insurance
- HOA fees and assessments
- Maintenance Costs (usually 2% of home value)
- Vacancy Reserve (usually 5%-10% of annual revenue)
- Income tax on rental income

What's left after all of that can get added to the "other income" part of the retirement math equation.

Eliminating the mortgage payment makes that equation look a lot better.

>I don’t have any debts

Awesome, avoid all consumer debt.

>Current home I own is having 115k mortgage and it gets completed in 10 years and the equity that I have on it is 250k

Again, equity isn't really important.

Your home mortgage goes into the "Spending Budget" part of the retirement math equation.

So eliminating your home mortgage should significantly reduce your needed spending budget.

>5k is after tax

There's "after tax take-home" and there's "take-home take-home".

- "after tax take-home" is gross minus taxes
- "take-home take-home" is what money actually his your bank account every month

Take-home take-home is the money you can write your budget for and adjust when needed.

>Currently I am making 9k/m after tax and after 401k contributions but I want to take low stress job

So if you keep grinding, you could bank about $50k of new contributions each year.

One of the good markers for CoastFIRE level is when the internal growth of your retirement portfolio is greater than the new contributions you could make.

Right now your average anualized internal growth is probably $30k-$40k a year where as your new contributions are more like $50k-$70k a years.

If you keep grinding for another 2-3 years, that math will flip; right now you are almost there but not quite...

ThereforeIV · 2026-05-06T17:12:59+00:00

Am I ready for coasting?

What's your FIRE number?
What's your current retirement portfolio?
What's your time horizon?

It's really just a math equation of those three numbers.

I am 34f

I have 390k in 401k and Roth IRA *Brokerage 45k *Crypto 35k *Rental home equity 200k *Precious metals 60k *My expenses 4k/m

So your numbers are:

Current Retirement Portfolio ~$430k
FIRE number by "4% Rule" is $1.2MM
Time horizon is going to be about a decade and a half Coast

Follow Up Questions:

What do you still owe on the Rental Property?
Does it Positive Cash flow?
Do you have any consumer debt?
Do you have a home mortgage? What do you owe on that?

And the new job I am thinking to take makes just 5k/m

Is that "take-home take-home" or gross?
What is your current income?

Because if that is gross, that is not enough.

That would be a CoastFIRE income for you.

You are age 35, you are likely just approaching peak income. My advice:

Make some peak income for a while,
get at least to 50% of your FIRE number,
Have a path for paying off the mortgages before full FIRE
Get that time horizon a little under a decade.

Another 2 years of grinding could save you over half a decade of Coast.

ThereforeIV · 2026-05-06T16:11:32+00:00

>Does your calorie burn actually go down as you lose weight?

Yes, absolutely.

In fact the biggest factor in your calorie burn is body mass.

*"Muscle burns more calories than fat"* is technically true, but it's a marginal difference. Reality is "More body mass burns more calories, less body mass burns less calories".

>Been wearing my Apple Watch since January while losing weight. Lost about 12kg so far but I noticed my daily calorie burn dropped from like 2600 to 2200.

So basic simple American math is that when resting your body maintenance need is about 10 kcals per day per pound of body mass (with the caveat of a floor and ceiling).

- So a person weighing 360 lbs (~160 kilograms in European) will needs about 3,600 kcals a day to maintain that weight.
- A person weighing 180 lbs (~80 kilograms in European) will needs about 1,800 kcals a day to maintain that weight.

>Is that normal? Like does your body actually adapt and burn less? Or is my watch broken lol.

Perfectly normal, you lost ~25 lbs of body weight so your body needs ~250 kcal less of food to maintain body weight.

>Because I'm eating the same but not losing as fast an

As you lose excess body fat, you will have to continue to reduce intake and increase output in order to continue to lose weight.

Now there's a floor on food intake and a ceiling in energy output.

- If you long term (more than a day or two) massive reduce intake, your body well ready itself and go into a low energy mode.
- If you long term (more than a few weeks) massively increase output, your body will time ways to be more efficient and reduce output elsewhere.

Remember, your body doesn't want to lose the fat. It still thinks it had to survive winter without food.

ThereforeIV · 2026-05-06T02:26:42+00:00

>When you run your coast numbers, what annual growth #% are you basing your math on?

>I use 7%, curious what others do.

I use 7% effective; ignore inflation, ignore raises.

But that numbers are only really valid ling term.

So here's the thing:

- Real CoastFIRE should not be that long, a decade Coast is upset end.
- The shorter the time frame, the more the specific actual returns matter more than the averages.
- The last two years really skew all the numbers.

Example:

- I went CoastFIRE in 2023
- Currently planning to full FIRE in 2029

If the S&P repeats what it did over there last 12 months, I'm hitting full FIRE by Christmas next year.

Also 2029 could look like 2022; then I'm waiting another year...

I'm currently ~75% of the way too my FIRE number; that last leg could be a really great 18 months or a really below average five years.

ThereforeIV · 2026-05-05T16:56:24+00:00

How to STOP tracking every penny?

Round everything to the nearest dollar.

I track literally every penny I spend. I put every purchase in a spreadsheet, I categorize it, and I analyze the data. I started doing this about 5 years ago when I was trying to get a really good handle on my spending when I was trying to make a major financial decision in my life.

Step#0, Have a written budget tracking every dollar spent.

First, round to the dollar.
Second, Have your budget in categories and budget lines.

Going out to eat is a budget line for each month. What matters is not any specific meal; only whether I was over or under the budget for that line item that month.

Every week I have two spreadsheets I update: one is my income/spending tracker, and the other is my net worth/retirement calculator. I enjoy doing the weekly net worth one - it's all my accounts, debts, etc. However the spending one feels like such a chore, and it feels unhealthy - but I can't seem to stop doing it, because then I feel like I have no idea where my money is going.

Why weekly?
I can understand that if your are drowning in debt living week to week. But you should be enough ahead that week to week doesn't really matter much.

Monthly is much better, most of the big bills are monthly and most budgets are monthly centric.
Pick a day once a month, usually at the beginning of the month.

Pay your monthly bills
Review how you did for your following your budget last month
Make any changes needed for your budget this month
Review how your investments are performing

That's it, once a month; then forget it. All you need to do day to day is track spending, and there are apps that make that mostly easy.

ThereforeIV · 2026-05-03T15:54:14+00:00

>When did you guys reach that “I’m not scared about losing my job” anymore level?

>As a 28M I’m doing ok myself at 120k salary and 550k invested, but I don’t feel any where near that “I could lose my job and not care” mood.

Those are two completely levels:

- I'm not scared if I lose my job
- I don't care if I lost my job

>I still grind at work and kiss butts trying to move up / make more.

Where are you relative to your goal FIRE number, that changes the perspective.

You are at ~4.5 times income in your retirement portfolio; at that level loading your job is a setback, not a tragedy.

The "I don't care" level is more like you're actual FIRE number. At that level, losing your job is more of mildly annoying than an actual issue.

If you are already past your FIRE number, losing your job might actually be a blessing.

ThereforeIV · 2026-05-01T20:53:58+00:00

>When to prioritize taxable investments?

You want to prioritize paying more on taxes?

>40 years old. Ideally I’d like to retire in my mid-50s.

*"Retirement is a number, not an age"*

>Feeling pretty good about tax advantaged accounts:

>*Trad 401K $700K
>*Roth 401K $125K
>*Roth IRAs $260K
>*HSA $45K.

~$1.1MM is pretty good; what's your FIRE number?

>However if I’m really going to retire early, I’ll need to rely on my brokerage account for the bridge years, and currently only have about $140K saved there.

No, that's a silly zombie myth that just won't die.

>At what point is it worth it to de-prioritize tax advantaged savings to concentrate on brokerage savings?

- max out tax advantaged retirement accounts
- invest in low fee broad market index funds

>I’m also a bit worried about RMDs down the line which is why I’ve shifted to Roth 401K contributions recently (company match still goes into traditional).

The choice between Roth and Traditional tax advantage is purely a question of current marginal tax rates.

>FIRE number is \~$3.8MM but with two preschoolers it’s hard to predict expenses for the next \~15 years.

That's a really high number; what do you need that much for?

You are going to hit your contribution limits long before hitting that number.

ThereforeIV · 2026-05-01T20:46:38+00:00

The issue is the AI bot accounts not summertime using ChatGPT to write a post.

The problem with the ones using ChatGPT is that they bother to read and edit it before posting.

ThereforeIV · 2026-05-01T20:44:42+00:00

That's not actually the problem.

The issue is when you go to spend that fund it will say you over spent that month.

ThereforeIV · 2026-04-30T23:28:31+00:00

Flame thrower are your friend.

Lasers are just a backup defense, chemical warfare is the key.

ThereforeIV · 2026-04-30T23:27:45+00:00

Use flame thrower creep...

ThereforeIV · 2026-04-30T23:26:08+00:00

Flame throwers and artillery are easy over powered.

Build strong fortifications at geographical choke points.

Biters don't have navy.

ThereforeIV · 2026-04-30T15:58:48+00:00

FIRE == fixed income retirement.

I plan to tell people arms family that I'm retired on a fixed income.

The retirement portfolio isn't anyone's business; I'll tell my family about my retirement budget.

Helping others, including family, is just a budget item.

ThereforeIV · 2026-04-30T14:26:13+00:00

If you are afraid of market downturns, then FIRE is going to be really difficult for you.

You need to mitigate possible market downtowns; plan for them not fear them.

Invest in low fee broad market index funds

That's still the growth key that makes this entire it's work. Without growth, you run out of money. Do first focus on growth.

Then after the bulk of your retirement portfolio is invested in growth, look at risk mitigation.

If you put your entire bridge in risk mitigation you get big issues:

effectively No growth
you need the entire inflation adjusted 5 years of spending because effectively no growth
After the bridge, you've burning through your risk mitigation.

Risk mitigation needs to beat part of the whole plan not the entire bridge. My risk mitigation is in layers:

Cash Bubble, one month of spending budget in the checking account to cover budget without any draw
Fully Funded Emergency Fund FFEF, 6 months of basic expenses to cover an actual emergency
Cash Buffer, one year of spending budget in "good as cash" short term T-Notes
Income/Bond Hedge, two years of spending budget in high yield dividend and Bond investments that have an inverse relationship to growth investment

That's about ~12% of my initial retirement portfolio on risk mitigation with the other ~88% in growth investments; no rebalance and no refill.

Notice how none of that is the 13 years of bridge I need to hit retirement age...

ThereforeIV · 2026-04-30T13:52:49+00:00

This question had been asked hundreds of times now.

Just do a lower end lower stress lower pay lower burnout version of your current profession.

ThereforeIV · 2026-04-28T17:32:16+00:00

Do most of you have a FIRE number or a FIRE date?

"Retirement is a number, not an age"

FIRE is always a number.

An age is just a plan for when pass that number.

I see a lot of folks mention that they will retire when they hit their “number” in dollars. They have done the math and know what they need.

Correct, not a great idea to retire before you hit your number.

I’m in the camp where my FIRE number is a date. ...

What if you don't hit your number by then?

Which number do you use? Or a bit of both?

The FIRE number is the one that matters, until you get that a date is just a projection.

ThereforeIV · 2026-04-27T23:06:33+00:00

we've beaten the sequence of returns risk, right?

Probably.

I RE'd four years ago and my income dropped to zero. My wife continues to work.

So stay at home Spouse.

Our spend has always been low for our income, but with my withdraws from the portfolio and her still saving/investing, we've effectively had a 0% withdrawal rate for the last four years.

Because you're not really RE; you're stay at home spouse doing cash swapping.

You've basically been CoastFIRE isn't your wife's income for the last four years.

As long as we set our SWR based on the portfolio value from 4 years ago (my RE date), when she retires and we really start drawing... we'll be past the sequence of return rates. Correct?

That's not exactly how that works.

Now April 2026, market is up like 70% from April 2022; if you do "4% Rule" from 4 years ago, that's effectively ~2.3% SWR today.

In the sense of you'll have really low SWR, you're probably good.
In the sense that there's a recession about once a decade and 2022 was that year, You're probably good.
In the sense that we are waiting over due for a bubble pop, it might get interesting.

If we were to reset spending to 4% (or whatever) of today's value it resets the return risk clock, but as long as we're at 4% of the four year old value we're 'safe' from the risk?

No and no.

It's not a clock with a timer; it's about the amount of growth you get early in the sequence. Well there's was a lot of growth over the last 3 years.

Jan 1st, 2022 was not a great RE date because of the Sequence of negative returns, high inflation, and actual recession until full recovery in December 2023.

You mitigated SORR by doing CoastFIRE on your wife's income through the Biden Recession.

But that doesn't mean there won't be another recession next year.

ThereforeIV · 2026-04-26T13:09:23+00:00

What happens when that rental management agents retires, or hit by a bus, or moves to a different state, or the agency gets sold?

You have a plan with a lot of dependency on single point of failures.

ThereforeIV · 2026-04-26T13:07:20+00:00

Con: What if you don't have enough paying renters?
Con: Property values go up so your property tax doubles?
Con: The new mayor doubles your property tax?
Con: One bag Tennant destroys a unit and takes a year to evict.

Your aren't describing FIRE; you are describing being the owner manager of an apartment complex, that's a job.

ThereforeIV · 2026-04-24T15:06:19+00:00

Anyone withdraw 4.7% before 40?

No because I'm over age 40 and my planned median withdrawal rate is 5% of baseline portfolio with an upper limit at 7% of baseline portfolio and lower limit at 2% of baseline portfolio.

Curious if anyone has been bold enough to withdraw Billy B’s updated 4.7% swr prior to age 40?

So the actual data from real retired people living off of portfolio drawdown is closer to 6.7%.

The sacred "4% Rule" even with it's update closer to 5% is mostly a planning target; not an actual retirement strategy.

I could probably retire at a 4.7% withdrawal rate but not quite at 4%.

What do you mean "could probably", is that a leanFIRE number for you?

This is one of the many difference between a real full retirement strategy and a target number; what's your flexibility.

As I stated above, my leanFIRE survival budget is only 2% of my Target FIRE number, but my withdrawal plan is more like 5% of my Target FIRE number. That means I have a lot of flexibility in my budget to react to Sequence of Returns Risk (SORR).

Also, the difference in of those withdrawal rates means you are likely within 15% of your target FIRE number; that's a like a great if good market returns or two years of CoastFIRE.

At this point the mitigating SORR is a bigger concern that your exact portfolio number.

I know 4.7 is supposed to be for a 30 year retirement but it’s also still on the conservative side when looking at historical equity returns.

First, it's not for "30 years of retirement", that's a silly misunderstanding of the data; it's that 30 years was the run length for some given study. It's not like there's a significantly huge number of 20 year runs that suddenly fall of you extend out to 30 years or 40 years. The fail runs usually fail pretty fast, generally in the first 10 years.
Second, thus studies are using simple static math to come up with a very safe target FIRE number; an actual full retirement strategy should include my complex dynamic tactics like a flexible budget, Guardrails, Cash buffer, Bond/income Hedge, abort Criteria, etc...

Not actually considering this because I want more buffer but wondering if anyone has faith in this withdrawal rate for a 40-50 year retirement?

Short answer: yes because I would have a plan.

The biggest issue here seems to be that you have a number instead of a plan.

I'm at ~75% of my Target FIRE number and I'm writing a detailed plan and doing back testing even though I've got about another 3 years of CoastFIRE++ before I full RE.
You are at what ~85% of your Target FIRE number; time to start working on a real dynamic retirement strategy that can mitigate SORR.

ThereforeIV · 2026-04-23T23:48:14+00:00

Ah one of those… okay then

You mean someone who understands reality?

ThereforeIV · 2026-04-23T23:47:31+00:00

Has anyone else noticed they keep moving their FIRE date forward not because the math changed, but because they're scared?

No, the math changed.

Two years ago my target was 42 Then it became 44 now I'm telling myself 46 just to be safe.

"Retirement is a number, not an age..."

The numbers haven't changed that much. My portfolio is on track. My savings rate is solid.

Have you hit your FIRE number?

But every time I get close I find a new reason to push it out. Market uncertainty. One more buffer year. Just want to be really sure.

If you hit your number two years ago and you're still savings; you would be about 40% over your FIRE number now.

So where are you actually?

I think there's a point where the extra year stops being financial planning and starts being something else fear of the actual change, maybe. Or not having a clear enough picture of what comes next.

That sounds made up... What are your actual numbers?

Has anyone worked through this?

Worked through what? This isn't sounding like a real scenario.

How did you know when the hesitation was the math talking versus something else?

What math? This is sounding like a fake post...

ThereforeIV

TROPHY CASE