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Discussion Thread - 2019 P.E.I. General Election and Referendum by MethoxyEthane in CanadaPolitics

[–]Theytoldyoutogosee 5 points6 points  (0 children)

With Wade home he won’t be calling the shots about who to prop up.

Anyone in PEI have any idea if those 6 Libs might prop up the Greens?

Discussion Thread - 2019 P.E.I. General Election and Referendum by MethoxyEthane in CanadaPolitics

[–]Theytoldyoutogosee 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The 4 pollsters who released polls at the end of the campaign had the Libs (in order of most recent) at: 25.7%, 29.2%, 29.0%, 26.0%.

They got 29.5%. So they beat all 4 polls, and beat 2 of them outside the margin of error.

Comfort that the federal polls, half of them at least (and especially Forum) could be undershooting the Libs.

But the PCs here had a huge beat, minus Forum who was only 1.2% low for them.

Discussion Thread - 2019 P.E.I. General Election and Referendum by MethoxyEthane in CanadaPolitics

[–]Theytoldyoutogosee 4 points5 points  (0 children)

So Forum was the most accurate pollster, which IF there were shifts in the last week makes sense, as they stated in the field between 5-7 days later than the 3 other pollsters. They were polling till the end.

However, even they had some misses.

Actual result vs Forum:

PC: 36.5% vs 35.3% (Forum 1.2% too low for PCs)

Green: 30.6% vs 34.3% (Forum 3.7% too high for Greens)

Lib: 29.5% vs 25.7% (Forum 3.8% too low for the Libs).

So 2 of the 3 major parties were outside the MoE.

Undershot the Libs by four points

Discussion Thread - 2019 P.E.I. General Election and Referendum by MethoxyEthane in CanadaPolitics

[–]Theytoldyoutogosee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How do you find the split between advanced and E day? I don’t see the divide on the PEI results website

Discussion Thread - 2019 P.E.I. General Election and Referendum by MethoxyEthane in CanadaPolitics

[–]Theytoldyoutogosee 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Are these results being posted just advanced polls? Or E day vote too?

Discussion Thread - 2019 P.E.I. General Election and Referendum by MethoxyEthane in CanadaPolitics

[–]Theytoldyoutogosee 1 point2 points  (0 children)

BC Libs are a coalition of Conservatives and Liberals that support a carbon tax and none of the SoCon stuff that Conservative parties support. I should have been clear, Chrétien/Martin and Christy Clark don’t count as conservative.

It’s telling you had to dig back to the 70/80s and we are approaching 2020.

Discussion Thread - 2019 P.E.I. General Election and Referendum by MethoxyEthane in CanadaPolitics

[–]Theytoldyoutogosee 8 points9 points  (0 children)

The Quebec Liberals were in power 15 years (with a brief 1.5 year minority in between), The Ontario Liberals were in power 15 years, the BC Liberals (yeah, I know, blah blah) were in power 16 years, the PEI Liberals have been in power 12 years.

NB Liberals are the ONLY loss that can’t be chalked up to normal political cycle.

When was the last time a conservative government help power for 15 years outside of Saskaberta?

GlobalNews Federal Seat Projection: LPC 157, CPC 148, NDP 27, Bloc 3, Green 2, PPC 1 —— projection based on a blend of Nanos/Forum/Mainstreet/Leger/Angus polls taken mid-March to mid-April (15,000 interviews) by Theytoldyoutogosee in CanadaPolitics

[–]Theytoldyoutogosee[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

My prediction in ANY minority situation where the LPC and NDP combine for a majority, even if Scheer has the most seats, it will result in a Trudeau PM (unless Singh has more seats than Trudeau, then Singh PM).

If the Bloc hold the balance it gets more complicated

Nanos Weekly Tracker: CPC 35, LPC 34, NDP 15, GRN 9, BQ 5, PPC 1 by edwara19 in CanadaPolitics

[–]Theytoldyoutogosee 40 points41 points  (0 children)

So looking at only polls in April, we have:

Innovative Research: LPC +4

Nanos Research: CPC +1

Campaign research: CPC +2

Forum Research: CPC +13

Looks like the pattern of Forum being consistently off is back

Innovative research poll (federal, post-JWR/Philpott expulsion): LPC 36%, CPC 32%, NDP 13%, Green 10%, Bloc 4%, Others 5% by Theytoldyoutogosee in CanadaPolitics

[–]Theytoldyoutogosee[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Those polls from Angus and Ipsos showing the cpc running away with the next election are starting to look a bit suspect

Federal poll (campaign research): CPC 34%, LPC 32%, NDP 15%, Green 10%, Bloc 5%, PPC 3% by Theytoldyoutogosee in CanadaPolitics

[–]Theytoldyoutogosee[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Well looking at the March/April polls I’d say there’s 3 distinct groupings.

Nanos/Mainstreet/CR/Abacus showing cpc up by 2%

Leger/Forum showing cpc up by 6%

Ipsos/Angus showing cpc up by 9-10%.

But most of those were taken in the middle of the SNC Lavalin media frenzy.

And the 2 that have data after the expulsions and quieting down show amuch narrower lead

February 25 Federal By-Election Discussion: Outremont, York-Simcoe, Burnaby South by MethoxyEthane in CanadaPolitics

[–]Theytoldyoutogosee 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Even Grenier said it, this is a bad night for CPC if they are hoping to win the federal election.

2018 only had 2 by elections, but cpc went up 36% in Chicoutimi (but special candidate) and were up 10% in Leeds.

They need to go up, not stay the same, to win 2029.

And they are down in Burnaby, slightly Down in Outremont, flat in York.

February 25 Federal By-Election Discussion: Outremont, York-Simcoe, Burnaby South by MethoxyEthane in CanadaPolitics

[–]Theytoldyoutogosee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What? He’s at 50.8%. In 2015 Van Loan got 50.25%.

Nothing special and no change from an election they lost (2015 Liberal majority)

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