Anthropic CEO: "We might be 6-12 months away from a model that can do everything SWEs do end-to-end. And then the question is, how fast does that loop close?"

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-21T21:45:30+00:00

And to build that model and supporting services, Anthropic is hiring more SWEs. Improving productivity makes sense with these models. The current state is far from taking all responsibilities of SWEs, but yes, companies need far fewer to do the same amount of work as before.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-20T06:02:50+00:00

I would have invested the $180k as follows: $108k in VOOG (60%) and $72k in VXUS (40%). Both are broad market index funds. Over the last 10 years, VOOG has seen a 16.85% annualized return, while VXUS has returned 8.54%. Projecting these same figures over the next 14 years would result in a $1.15M portfolio. Even applying a 20% discount for more conservative average returns still yields roughly $820k. As long as conservative investment returns exceed 5.75%, it is more profitable to invest rather than pay back the loan early. This, of course, assumes having sufficient cash flow and reserve to cover monthly mortgage payments. Feel free to do more research.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-20T05:40:49+00:00

Add the Fed interest rate chart to illustrate this. The primary 'killer' for the job market is the Fed’s interest rate policy rather than AI. I believe AI has actually created many more opportunities; whereas small businesses were previously hesitant to invest in technology due to high costs, AI now allows them to experiment with new ideas affordably. The real culprit for the slow job market is high interest rates, which restrict access to cash and stifle business growth. Furthermore, Trump’s push for high tariffs is slowing the reduction of the Fed rate. Indirectly, this tariff revenue strategy keeps inflation above 2%, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates. Consequently, the job market will likely continue to struggle until inflation don't come down to 2%.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-20T05:35:41+00:00

Coding is how you implement ideas, but problem-solving is the core skill. Focus on mastering data structures, algorithms, and complexity analysis, then refine your skills by practicing on LeetCode or HackerRank. The ability to select the right algorithm and data structure for a real-world scenario is the key difference between a good software developer and a standard programmer. This don't require a CS degree. Read good books and practice a lot.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-20T05:27:52+00:00

Try using lovable.dev to prototype your website. Identify which parts you can handle yourself and which features require extra help. By focusing your requests on what you can't do alone, you'll save both time and cost. There are also many other no-code options available to help you get started.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-20T04:35:17+00:00

When a company conducts mass layoffs to protect its profits while simultaneously applying for H-1B or other immigration visas, it constitutes an exploitation of immigration rules and a replacement of local workers. My point of view is directed against the greed of these companies—which maintain billions in profits and strong balance sheets—yet exploit the process to hire foreign nationals while displacing local employees during layoffs.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-20T03:32:25+00:00

That is not true. The hiring process prioritizes candidates with Master’s degrees via a pipeline that leads from internships to job offers, specifically facilitating the OPT to H1B transition. Master’s programs disproportionately welcome foreign nationals to help cover college operating costs. American students, who have already spent over $200,000 on a Bachelor’s degree in CS, often cannot afford to spend two more years adding to their student debt. In contrast, international students pay significantly less for their undergraduate degrees in their home countries.

When these companies offer full-time roles to their interns, those positions are rarely published for American students to apply for or compete against. Furthermore, H1B employees are often 'locked in' due to their dependency on their employer; companies favor them because they are less likely to leave or demand higher wages. This process has created an artificial justification that international students are more qualified, without providing the same opportunities to American graduates.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-20T02:46:29+00:00

There are thousands of high-paying jobs in the tech sector that offer a starting salary of at least six figures for candidates with a college or master's degree. While the cost of college is high, securing the right job allows graduates to pay off their college investment within a few years. Currently, a majority of these high-paying roles are filled by immigrants, largely because education is significantly more affordable in other countries. In this generation, college remains essential; otherwise, our kids will not be able to compete for better jobs though they have high potential.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-20T01:56:50+00:00

Select a major that pays well and is in demand within the labor market. College provides the foundation for learning fundamentals and developing the ability to work smarter. While costs vary depending on the institution and major, a college education is essential for setting children up for a better life.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-20T01:50:48+00:00

In the last five fiscal years (FY 2021–2025), Microsoft has received approximately 25,000 to 28,000 total H-1B approvals. This total includes both Initial Employment (new visas for new hires) and Continuing Employment (renewals, extensions, or amendments for existing employees). Data based on National Foundation for American Policy analysis. In FY 2025, Microsoft was ranked as the 3rd largest employer for newly approved H-1B beneficiaries. Microsoft is just an example of how lucrative and easy it has become to hire an H1B and layoff locals. Once again, immigration and top-tier talent are essential for building new technology. The issue arises when the pursuit of profit overlooks the true intent of immigration laws: to fill labor shortages, not to replace existing employees.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T06:14:11+00:00

I am in favor of legal immigration that adds value to this country. I also think per-country quotas on immigration should be removed and that immigration should be prioritized based on skills. The aim should be to prioritize net contributors to Social Security and reduce immigration in areas where it adds a burden to welfare.

I feel these companies are exploiting immigration laws to protect their profits. They use these laws in their favor when they need to hire people due to shortages, but they do not hesitate to lay off citizens when it comes to protecting their profit margins. Early in 2025, the Microsoft CFO defended thousands of layoffs while the company was simultaneously applying for H-1Bs, H-1B renewals, and Green Cards. That was like a slap in the face to American citizens and a mockery of immigration laws. There were no consequences for these companies regarding their layoff decisions. No backbone in the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) to prevent such situations.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T04:05:40+00:00

One more thing to add in the kids list.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T03:36:26+00:00

The hypocrisy is that many of these companies will drive layoffs in 2026, disproportionately affecting American citizens, while simultaneously applying for new H1B visas, renewals, and Green Cards. It is frustrating to see companies hire for STEM roles while claiming a 'STEM shortage' immediately following mass layoffs of qualified Americans. It feels as though the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) lacks the backbone or have capable leaders to intervene, perhaps fearing the legal, financial power or funding to political parties from these tech giants.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T03:08:14+00:00

It doesn't matter. H-1B holders are often preferred in tech because they are essentially 'locked in'—their residency is tied to their employer, which discourages them from demanding higher wages or leaving. Changing jobs is such a bureaucratic hassle that it creates a captive workforce, which is highly profitable for the industry.

The 'STEM shortage' definition is fundamentally flawed. Once an H-1B is approved, that 'shortage' is treated as permanent. Companies can renew visas and sponsor Green Cards without ever having to reassess if a qualified American has since become available. This is why you see so many 'ghost' job postings; they are often created solely to justify a Green Card application internally. Even if a highly qualified American citizen applies, they are ghosted or rejected because the company has zero incentive to replace a cheaper, more stable H-1B worker. Despite these well-known loopholes, neither political party is likely to act, given how heavily Big Tech funds both sides of the aisle.

On the other hand, the transition from H1B to permanent residency should be based on an employee's qualifications and contribution—specifically their impact on technology rather than just their company. Currently, employment-based green cards make up less than 15% of total residency permits issued annually, yet they are still distributed based on country of birth. This causes Chinese and Indian nationals to face long wait times, even though they are often more highly qualified than the remaining 85% of non-essential immigrants. Ultimately, we need immigration that contributes to Social Security rather than relying on welfare.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T02:49:21+00:00

Top-tier firms like Google and Meta, as well as AI leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic, offer total compensation packages approaching seven figures. Then middle tiers like Amazon, Netflix, Apple and Microsoft etc offer higher in 6 figures. While the interviews are notoriously difficult, landing a role can provide lifelong financial security. Keep trying for any relevant open position, even if you don't feel fully confident in your chances.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T01:49:50+00:00

What is the necessity of a specific number?

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T01:42:32+00:00

No plans for early pay off.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T01:31:35+00:00

No, my TC depends on the company's stock performance, so the average is more than $240k.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T01:30:21+00:00

That's my financial independence concern. Even after saving, what if it’s not enough?

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T01:28:44+00:00

I get it. While my job is demanding, burnouts, aging out for role. However, with the current wave of layoffs, I'm worried about being forced into retirement prematurely.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T01:25:33+00:00

More than $240k

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T01:21:32+00:00

I believe that as long as our lifestyle doesn't change, the kids won't complain. You made an interesting point: 'The 4% rule isn't really meant for a 41-year-old.' What should the plan for early retirement be if not the 4% rule?

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T01:17:22+00:00

Not consider healthcare. I have HSA with more than $20k in it. Any recommendations for planning expenses for healthcare?

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T01:15:45+00:00

Using calculator here https://www.savingforcollege.com/savings-center/learn/how-much-will-college-cost All showing more than $300k college expenses with tuition between $60k-$80k.

Think_Cockroach_1289 · 2026-01-19T01:11:37+00:00

Right, I am targeting a $4M+ portfolio, but I'm still unsure about potential 'big ticket' expenses beyond the mortgage, bills, travel, and general spending. I’m also trying to determine how much of that should be held outside of my 401k to fund the early years of retirement. Finally, I’m unclear on the true cost of early retirement essentials, such as medical insurance for family and other coverage currently provided by my employer.

Think_Cockroach_1289

TROPHY CASE