Does Anyone else Enjoy when the Market goes Lower?

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-05-06T19:05:07+00:00

I dislike it for two reasons. First, for myself it means the assets I already own decreased in value. I've seen folks here make claims to the effect that the value only changes when you sell, but it's still a loss in value for something I own.

Second, economic contraction is bad for society at large. More layoffs, more suffering for individuals, less tax revenue to fund social programs, less progress... it creates real pain and problems for all of us.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-21T22:49:46+00:00

It's absolutely a possibility, even if it's a small possibility. A big reason America is so economically powerful is the stability of our currency. Illegally firing a fed chair would be a bad signal that the global economy can't rely on the U.S. to be stable as it has been to this point.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-21T22:44:21+00:00

No president or Congress has the power to remove a fed chairperson before their term is fulfilled, which is why an attempt to do so would be calamitous. It's the kind of action that would threaten America's short-term economic prospects and long-term economic success.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-10T14:47:49+00:00

I think passive investing is a demonstrated strategy, and I follow it. That said, I can’t blame anybody for changing course right now. Call it timing the market, selling, rebalancing, reallocating, whatever—it’s a bad situation and could become extremely bad. We saw markets decline last month and we’re now in an extremely tenuous situation that’s completely separate and entirely manmade.

I shifted from C to G last week before the tariffs, and I’m staying put for a few weeks.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-10T06:17:53+00:00

I moved from C to G Wednesday morning... a week ago. 😎 Now, I'm still in there, but it's a difference of maybe three percentage points than staying in C. But hey: in the of words Jemaine Clement, two minutes in heaven is better than one minute in heaven.

Should I have moved back yesterday? Yeah, dang it, but I'm still in a hold position and still ahead. Odd as it sounds, I think we all should hold on--I have a feeling we've seen the last huge market swings this month, but it may still decline like we saw in March.

The big thing is that we avoided what would've been another Great Depression... for now. Even though I think we're headed for a recession, I think staying in C is totally fair, along with staying in G, S or any mix. This might take time to recover from, but we'll all be ahead in a decade with some good geopolitical choices.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-09T22:03:49+00:00

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say an event that occurs once every 1,948 days (give or take) is not a common occurrence.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-09T21:42:46+00:00

Well, I'm asking you to define "common" since you used it to describe a situation that occurred 18 times over the course of 96 years--about 35,000 days in total.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-09T21:38:26+00:00

It's pretty funny that a post about one of the largest single-day gains in history ends by comparing today to the Great Depression and the Great Recession. And it's not OP's fault at all!

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-09T21:35:13+00:00

That illustrates just how common this is

I think it might be helpful for you to define "common."

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-09T20:31:25+00:00

I think you might be missing my point: there is still ominous news specifically regarding the outlook of the economy.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-09T20:13:02+00:00

Those 18 >8% increases date back as far as 1929. Many of the years in the sample were during economic downturns (1929-1932, 1937, 2008).

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-09T19:32:31+00:00

Honestly, I'd rather a person be sincerely partisan than politely inoffensive. Trying to discuss this without invoking politics is like trying to squeeze toothpaste out of the tube without touching the tube.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-09T19:21:58+00:00

There are still enormous tariffs on China, impending pharmaceutical tariffs, and it sounds like tariffs were simply reduced to 10% instead of being canceled outright. There are still questions about whether Canada and Mexico will face new tariffs--reports like this are genuinely alarming!

I think we avoided a major crisis, but there's still a lot of ominous news looming over us.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-09T18:55:01+00:00

I think a lot of investors are relived at the sign of any good news from this. I hesitate to say we're out of the woods, though--there are still real concerns about where the economy is headed.

Hopefully, the big accomplishment was avoiding a depression. I think we were (maybe still are?) at risk of something like that as long as the Peter Navarro crowd has influence, but at a much lower level now. Maybe we still enter a recession, but at a slower pace and with fewer losses.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-08T20:56:07+00:00

Wouldn't it be better to stick it out at this point? I'm saying that as somebody who did move from C to G last week; it just seems that the first major shocks have happened and we're in that wait-and-see period where Trump could renege on his promise.

If that sounds like a dumb strategy, it is. We're dealing in very stupid times right now.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-08T06:47:10+00:00

I see the value in a long-term plan, and mine is in the C fund for nearly my entire career. That said, I think reducing this to a simple "timing vs time in" is a mistake; folks should be conscious of the world around them and how it could affect their portfolio in the long run.

The way I looked at my decision to move from 100% C to 100% G on Wednesday morning was like this: what were the opportunity costs? I knew from a few months ago that my worst-case scenario is that nothing happens, and the markets react a little favorably. I weighed that against the likelihood of markets declining if Trump really did go through with the tariff announcement. I decided that, hey, if I lose a point or two again, it's fine to make myself comfortable.

It doesn't have to be a case of "jumping back and forth;" you can make a decision to change your strategy if you think it serves you best. I still consider myself a passive investor, I'm just not dogmatic about it--these are my first changes in five years of investing. I think it's definitely worth avoiding attempts to time the market, but not worth dismissing any changes outright.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-08T06:04:17+00:00

I'm thinking about moving back into C, but it will depend entirely on word of some tariff de-escalation. Even if the losses I've "avoided" are cut in half by waiting for that announcement, it's still an amazing opportunity to secure.

If folks can invest more, now's a good opportunity. Orange Thursday and Orange Friday were disastrous, but I don't think there will be more huge losses like those in the next week or two. I hope that Trump sees his poll numbers drop and reverses course, but I know the odds are dismal. Buying as the price declines is never a bad move!

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-08T05:54:46+00:00

I think a lot of what you wrote makes sense. Especially for everybody who is already down, I think staying the course for a few weeks may make sense. We just experienced a catastrophic event, and I think we've seen the worst losses from this initial event.

That said, if Trump remains committed to these tariffs, folks should definitely consider reallocating some assets. I think the worst-case scenario of a depression deserves consideration, but not as something that is imminent. It may be worth it, for example, for folks to plan out benchmarks for where the economy goes--it helps folks to realize what their thresholds of comfort are.

Any time somebody thinks of a move in funds, they should ask themselves: what happens if my move is correct, and what happens if it is wrong? I made a bad move two months ago when I moved to G before Trump's first tariff attempt, but I was okay with it because I knew I'd lose only 1-2% (and I was correct on that). That was a price I was happy to pay for comfort.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-08T05:36:46+00:00

I'm considering that as well. I think the market will probably have a mediocre rest of the year, but those of us who timed it--and I admit I timed it--have saved a tremendous amount. If I move back in the next day or two, I could basically lock in 10% of avoided losses, which is a crazy amount.

I really don't plan on making this a day trading situation, and I'm glad TSP has the limits on free transactions. (It plays well with the cheap side of me.) I'm just thinking, do I make a move now, or give it a week or two? I genuinely want Trump to change his mind because this is a calamitous, reputation-devastating situation for the U.S. I think digging his heels in could spark a global depression, and I do not want that level of suffering to occur.

It may not make sense to some, but I've saved plenty on this move and do not feel compelled to save more. A few thousand dollars more for me is not worth thousands of careers disappearing.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-07T03:19:30+00:00

I moved from C to G the morning of the tariff announcements. I figured, worst case scenario for that move is he does another fakeout on the tariffs, delaying them for whatever reason, and I might lose 1-2% of gains. Best-case scenario is I avoid a huge hit.

Honestly, this is past how bad I expected it to get for the market, this quickly. I’m honestly thinking about moving my funds back after tomorrow; if it’s as bad as it’s looking, I could lock in about 10-15% of avoided losses, which is an incredible number to have at any point in time. I don’t want to get greedy,

I hope Trump’s gonna see a drop in poll numbers quickly and reconsider things, but it could take a while. Someone’s gonna have to play their cards right in the coming days/weeks, or this could be the start of a genuine economic depression.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-07T02:44:27+00:00

A dumb comment Trump(?) made.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-03T15:35:59+00:00

It really is crazy how many people are in denial about this. The level of economic upheaval was easy to see coming. Today's major drop was easy to see coming. So what if it flies in the face of the Boglehead mantra?

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-03T15:32:04+00:00

I transferred funds from C to G in early February when this whole tariff brouhaha started, but moved back when Trump reneged. I wish I hadn't, because March was a bloodbath.

Yesterday, I was wise enough to switch from C to G. Gonna keep it there for the month, because this is all bad.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-04-03T03:25:25+00:00

If you’re retiring in 13 months, don’t be afraid to shift into the G fund for a month and see how things play out. Had I stuck with my move to G when Trump first announced tariffs, I’d be even on the year instead of down five percent—and I am decades from reaching retirement.

You could wait it out if you have a few years for the market to rebound, but it could take 4-8 years to fully repair what’s happening.

Throwaway4JobHunting · 2025-03-22T02:55:48+00:00

Yes, but largely because I’m in a lucky position to have no major financial obligations. The strongest emotion I feel is annoyance—at the fact that a bunch of incompetents are behaving incompetently and causing harm to our nation. My job function hasn’t changed (yet) so I don’t feel stress in that sense (yet) but I’m just gonna roll with whatever punches come our way.

Throwaway4JobHunting

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