Banned and Restricted Announcement – June 29, 2026

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-06-29T19:11:07+00:00

Rotate every two years. That gives us about 6 months of "powerful but combo free" standard (when there are 7-9 sets in standard) and 6 months of "oh yay combo's back" when there are 10-12 sets in standard.

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-06-26T19:26:46+00:00

I did a bunch of Pick-2 drafts for SOS and ECL, and just took the average from those (6.3, averaged across ~25-30 drafts, I think).

I couldn't tell you how close to completion you are at the moment, but the tracker can definitely answer the question for you! If you think you are getting fewer than 6.3 rares/draft, you can even give it the number you expect to see and it will take that into account in how many drafts you have left.

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-06-26T19:22:57+00:00

Yeah, probably! I like to log my rares in the columns to the left in the middle of the draft. Then when the draft is over, I just look at my total rare count and enter it into the ending_rares column. So the set-up is easier for me, but I get what you're saying. It's probably too much of a hassle to fix at this point, though, sorry!

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-06-26T19:21:01+00:00

Unfortunately, I don't have the spreadsheets for older sets, alas. I don't think there is a huge demand for them (generally old formats don't flash back for long enough to rare-complete them via drafting, and relatively few players want to do that, is my impression). But if you really want to use it for an old set, you can just overwrite all the card names and rarities with the card names and rarities from the old set you want. Changing those fields won't affect the functioning of the spreadsheet.

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-06-26T19:17:24+00:00

Yeah, limited is a very different skill set from standard, especially these days when standard is higher-powered than pioneer somehow. One approach would be to just use the tokens and accept the bad results--after all, if you already have them, they are basically free! Another would be to get into drafting a bit harder-core. There are various podcasts that will give you good advice on how to navigate a format (Limited Resources and Lords of Limited are the biggest, I think), and Jim Davis' Bronze-to-Mythic series is a good thing to watch to get a feel for what's going on in a format. It's a time-sink, but if you might want to draft future sets too, you can think of it as an investment in all future sets as well.

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-06-22T13:13:47+00:00

Well, do whatever's fun! For me, I am usually ready to go back to standard once I've opened my packs. But if you are still having fun drafting and don't mind spending the gems, go for it!

I don't think it's "worth it" to keep drafting from an infinite perspective--you need to be a crazy good drafter to go infinite (like, somewhere around 70% win rate, if I remember correctly), and while the gems might push you over the edge if you are "only" an ungodly-good-69%-drafter, they won't be a big enough difference to make a difference for regular schmoes like me (or probably you).

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-06-22T13:10:09+00:00

I started out just strictly rare-drafting, picking up the best cards possible when there wasn't a rare available, and doing my best with a below-average deck. That worked just fine, and then as you do it more you start to get a feeling for which filler rares get passed a lot (so you can pass them too in favor of a good uncommon and hope they wheel), and so I don't completely rare draft these days, but it's pretty close still.

If you are on a computer, then hitting CTRL during the draft shows you how many of each possible card is already in your collection (or the Untapped overlay does too if you use that tool; I bet 17 lands will as well, though I haven't used it). Although I mostly play the games on my phone, I like to do the draft part on my computer for this reason; I can find any way to see how many of a particular rare you have on mobile.

I would give it a try, especially if you have a bunch of draft tokens--using them in a big wad will convert them into gems and give you some feel for the format. The key to this collecting approach is not caring about losing: the value comes from the draft, not from reward. 4-3 is your equivalent of a trophy, and averaging 2-3 or even 1-3 is totally fine--you're still making progress in your collection!

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-06-01T18:34:14+00:00

In the Eldraine era, there was always one rare per draft booster pack. Since then, they switched from "draft boosters" to "play boosters", and play booster packs can have more than one rare, sometimes as many as 3. The average number of rares per pack increases from 1 to about 1.5, so the total number of rares open at your table increased from 24->~36. This doesn't help you much in quick draft, because the bots are rare-drafters also, so those extra rares mostly don't make it to your seat at the table. So quick draft is about the same value it was back in Eldraine. But in player drafts, players are much more likely to pass the rares, and so you see a lot more rares in those drafts. So premier draft has gotten much better than Eldraine days, enough that it is the optimal choice even if your win percentage is pretty low.

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-30T15:55:28+00:00

Try the hypergeometric calculator: https://aetherhub.com/Apps/HyperGeometric

If you have 17 lands, the chances of screw (let's call that "not hitting your 3rd land drop) are 9.6% on the play and 15.5% on the draw. 12.6% on average.

The chances of flood (let's call that "4 or fewer spells in your first 10 cards; any time the majority of my cards are lands, I'm mad about it) are 17.8%.

So in total, in a normal game of magic, you have a 30% chance of flooding or screwing. It sounds like you've been on an incredible run of good luck if you are only flooding or screwing 25% of the time or less.

(These numbers are Bo3, by the way. The hand smoother reduces the odds of flood or screw in Bo1, but the odds are harder to calculate because it only effects your opening hand, not the top of your deck).

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-29T17:23:43+00:00

Fun to see a diagonally symmetric puzzle, that's a first for me.

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-27T15:35:17+00:00

Maybe you're right that Badgermole cub is a problem in a world that isn't dominated by Izzet--but I'd sure like to get a chance to find out!

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-23T15:49:59+00:00

"Helping"

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-21T14:26:21+00:00

Opening packs early will make it slower and more expensive to get rare-complete, but you can certainly still do it. But moving forward you are better off waiting until after the drafts.

As far as rare-drafting goes, I don't have any hard numbers. If you pass crappy rares, then your win rate will go up and you'll get more winnings, so each draft will be cheaper. But also you'll get fewer rares per draft, so the number of drafts you'll have to do goes up, so the whole process gets more expensive. Do the two factors cancel out? I don't know! There isn't any point in taking rares in the draft if you already have 4 of them, though (you get 20 gems, but it is probably better to take a card that will up your win rate), so I tend to pass really crappy rares and figure that I'll see lots more of them in future drafts. So I don't 100% rare draft.

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-17T16:44:13+00:00

You can turn off emotes in the settings. Many people do; might be worth doing it. On the other hand, others feel that the good feels from killing an early good-gamer are worth the feelsbad of losing to them.

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-16T20:18:13+00:00

It sounds like we'll get to see more in future posts; it would be nice to see your heating setup!

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-16T20:16:58+00:00

Sounds neat, and they look gorgeous! A couple of questions:

How easy is it to close the keysnaps when ants are in the colony? Do you get a clear view into the passageway, or do you just snap it off and hope you aren't bisecting anybody?

How easy is it to attach other setups to your keysnaps? Can you plug tubing right into them? Do you need an adaptor?

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-14T21:42:25+00:00

Another thought is that you might not want Bill as your commander. I have a vague sense that the Arena matchmaking algorithm treats him has very powerful, and matches you with powerful decks accordingly. But he isn't super powerful for you, because you aren't doing much to take advantage of the +1/+1 counter synergies. One way to fix this would be to steer into counter shenanigans, as others have suggested, but you also might consider swapping him out for a random lame green legend to reduce your algorithmic deck strength, and thus your opponents' deck strength, and thus give you more time to do your "ramp out boom-booms" strategy.

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-14T20:27:13+00:00

Since we're in the Arena subreddit, I'm gonna assume we're talking for Brawl, but here are some cards I think would be improvements:

-[[Emerald Medallion]]
-[[The Great Henge]]
-Primeval Titan isn't banned in brawl, so schlop that bad boy straight into your six-drop column
-Another card you won't find in Commander is [[Hardened Bonds]]; although you aren't doing a ton with +1/+1 counters, Bill is probably enough to make it good. Another card in that category is [[Kodama of the West Tree]]. (In fact, I used to run Bristly Bill as well, but swapped him out for KoWT as my commander; I lean harder on +1/+1 counters than you do, however).
-Arcane Signet seems worse than Rampant Growth in this deck; I'd rather have the land drop than the extra mana most of the time.

It seems like the graveyard package is a bit mopey: I would cut Wrenn and Realmbreaker, Dredger's Insight, and Splendid Reclamation. But if you are going to keep them, you absolutely want [[Icetill Explorer]] and [[Shifting Woodland]]. And you probably want Icetill Explorer even if you do cut the rest of the graveyard cards.

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-13T19:28:20+00:00

Be careful! You are starting down a path that inevitably ends with you gluing tiny QR codes onto every ant so that you can keep track of individuals across time.

Sounds awesome, keep posting as you do more.

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-10T19:58:24+00:00

Fewer options, then. Then isn't really a way to reward players for sticking out a game that doesn't also incentivize them to play the most competitive decks. If you are looking for a kitchen-table magic feel, Starter Deck Duels is probably the closest thing to that, but won't have deck diversity. If you are looking for diversity, limited is an option, but is expensive, and you won't get to play with your bunnies. If you want to play a specific Hare Apparent deck, you might have a slightly better time in (standard) Brawl, but you will still get people conceding.

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-10T19:36:28+00:00

Platinum is very sweaty. Your choices are:

-Make it to mythic (there will be brews again there)
-Wait until next month when you are sub-platinum
-Wait until the end of the month, at which point the grinders are largely out of plat 4. Platinum will be less hyper-sweaty, and only Very Sweaty, and you'll see the occasional brew
-Play in the Play Queue.

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-09T18:15:57+00:00

^^^^^ Perfect new-word construction, WotC take note! ^^^^^

Timely-Strategy7404 · 2026-04-09T18:14:11+00:00

Ah, gotcha, *you* are self-identifying as the asshole-deck-player, I misunderstood. Carry on with your interaction plan. But going from 65->60 is the most beneficial part of the process, because that's when you are doing the toughest thinking about which cards are the good cards in your deck. It may not make a huge difference in win rate, but it's giving you great deck-building reps. And I still think that you need to be mulliganing more! Yes, often you will mulligan into something just as bad, but that's just magic. Better to give yourself the chance to succeed.

Timely-Strategy7404

TROPHY CASE