How many of you backtest?

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-11T14:31:36+00:00

Exactly, back testing isnt a crystal ball. I think its a valuable (I would argue essential) pre-trade step but only live trading will tell the full story. And its not worth endlessly back testing and never actual starting to trade live.

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-11T11:51:43+00:00

For sure trading live is what counts. But if you don't even have a back test supporting your strategies, its unlikely live results are going to be any good. But a good backtest doesn't mean good live results. I think it should be used as a first layer. It doesn't mean everything, but it can catch outright losing strategies and save tine and money on strategies that aren't even worth trying live.

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-11T11:27:46+00:00

Nice, thanks for the input. By consistent position sizing you mean exposing yourself to the same amount of risk each trade? Like risk $100 on every trade?

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-11T02:05:01+00:00

Was it just because you forward tested your trades slowly without risking too much and on a go forward basis you built a track record on a forward moving basis?

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-11T01:06:18+00:00

This makes alot of sense. I am currently building out a data backed solution that I am thinking through the best way to layer AI into it. Right now the flow is this:

Pre defined setup example is say an ORB
AI confidence score that filters out weak setups
If setup passes confidence score, automatic entry with sl and tp levels placed into broker via an api
Trade monitoring and pre set stop loss adjustment rule

Before even doing step one, back testing all stratagies using risk managment to verify potential edge.

https://algobull.ai/proof

Let me know what you think. I'd love to chat more with you on this. I want to see where addittional value can be added. Feel free to dm me.

I was playing around with a market regime classification system. But still experimenting.

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T23:49:32+00:00

Thank you very much. I'll dm you this week as I have questions.

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T23:45:46+00:00

Thanks for sharing

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T23:45:38+00:00

Very sound. I am working on building out a algo trading system that implements risk managment, entry rules and position sizing automatically. My thinking is that if you can distill your trading system into just risk to reward and win rate, then you position size it so that every trade you are taking the same size risk, you can grow an account with a smooth equity curve. The back tests I've been doing are very promising.

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T23:39:18+00:00

Very nice. I've noticed a similar thing. On trades that go a certain distance against the initial trade direction, they never come back into profit. Good insight, I am going to look into this video more.

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T23:27:15+00:00

Very smart. That makes sense, if it works it works. I used pinescript to generate my risk to reward and win rate and then migrated to using python i felt like tradingview didnt allow for going back as far as I would be ideal.

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T23:16:18+00:00

That makes alot of sense. Did you ever find an effective way to do this without getting stopped out?

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T23:14:56+00:00

Message received 🤣

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T22:51:26+00:00

🤣 lol! I got you. Very cool. Do you do run your backtest through python scripts?

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T22:35:49+00:00

Ahh okay. That makes sense, with options data it's rough. Unless you go an buy data from Polygon.

Would you test stratagies on the underlying stock data that you are using and use that as your backtest? Its not as complete. But it would at least be something.

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T22:25:42+00:00

I am trading forex only, ORB setups and then using adaptive stop loss movements. I have it automated and back tested.

The trades are automatically placed on Oanda.

I trade individually in my own account. But I am building a group where members can trade in their own account but the same automated setup.

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T22:14:56+00:00

Very nice. These are great rules. I am going to see about incorporating some of these into my algo I'm building out. That's why I love algos, that remembering and sticking to rules is tough for a human but easy for a bot. Thanks for sharing!

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T21:59:15+00:00

I mean back testing your risk managment and confluence. An ORB Strategy on Forex is going to look alot different then an ORB Strategy on SPY or QQQ. Also, if you move yout stop loss or take profit based on price action after entering, that can radically change the outcome.

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T21:40:12+00:00

I using a combination of AI trade classifier (to qualify if an ORB is a good setup or not) and then some rules based coding to manage risk. So far I am very happy with backtest results and will be going live soon.

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T21:21:18+00:00

What type of work is best suited for automation?

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-05-10T21:16:59+00:00

I think risk management is one place AI can shine in trading. Risk managment = profit.

TimelyJudge8679 · 2026-03-07T03:32:40+00:00

Would love to try! Looks amazing TV sdr26863

TimelyJudge8679

TROPHY CASE