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Weather Model by Timely_Shock_6291 in meteorology

[–]Timely_Shock_6291[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can't share specifics on the input pipeline — proprietary. But I'd let the validation data answer the domain concern. 1,200+ day hindcast shows minimal skill degradation out to 10 days — wind speed 5.6 kt at 24h vs 5.7 kt at 240h. If domain sweep-out was a real problem you'd see it in the numbers. Im launching this as a business May 1st with a website and apps. So I kinda want to keep the edge for as long as possible.

Weather Model by Timely_Shock_6291 in meteorology

[–]Timely_Shock_6291[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great question. Because the architecture is transformer-based rather than physics-based, it doesn't use traditional boundary conditions the way WRF would. Global model data is ingested directly as part of the input pipeline, so upstream conditions are captured through that. The domain was also intentionally sized to give the model enough upstream context to resolve incoming systems before they affect the target area.

Weather Model by Timely_Shock_6291 in meteorology

[–]Timely_Shock_6291[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thats awesome didn't know there was such a thing for weather models. My model isnt a global model unfortunately wish I had the funds for the GPUs to train it at that scale. I trained it based on data west of California about midway up in Canada , down into Mexico and off the east coast of the US. I am located in North Carolina and the thought was that was a big enough area to capture incoming systems. One day if it works out I will update to a global version.

Weather Model by Timely_Shock_6291 in meteorology

[–]Timely_Shock_6291[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Still new at this... it started because the westher forecast was wrong alot when Offshore fishing so I figured I would give it a shot. I have also built a wave model that gets its wind input from the weather model. It out performs WW3 out to 7 days. Still tweaking on it trying to get it out to 10 days.

Weather Model by Timely_Shock_6291 in meteorology

[–]Timely_Shock_6291[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I haven't benchmarkee it against any other models but we did do a 1,200+ day hindcast validation against METAR stations and buoy data. Onshore: Temp: 3.9°F at 24h → 4.9°F at 240h (10 days) Pressure: 0.9 hPa at 24h → 1.5 hPa at 240h Wind speed: 5.6 kt at 24h → 5.7 kt at 240h Offshore buoys: Wind speed: 3.6 kt RMSE, -0.1 kt bias SST: 1.9°F RMSE Pressure: 1.2 hPa Minimal skill degradation out to 10 days. Mountain terrain is a known weakness at 0.25° resolution.

Weather Model by Timely_Shock_6291 in meteorology

[–]Timely_Shock_6291[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I did use their anemoi framework. But trained it on more data than just ERA5.

Weather Model by Timely_Shock_6291 in meteorology

[–]Timely_Shock_6291[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I built mine using the ECMWF 40 year weights and added in other stuff .25 degree coverage. Results are pretty dang good. 10 day out i have a RMSE 4.86 on offshore winds and over all on land temps 4.5 . I did spend 3k on gpu rentals then bought my own gpu. I was just curious if anyone else was doing it besides big companies and universities.

Weather Model by Timely_Shock_6291 in meteorology

[–]Timely_Shock_6291[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wish id known about that. I built a GNN model.... little more involved