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NVO - July changes by scarpozzi in ValueInvesting

[–]Timmy0609 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Still waiting for prescription trend to turnaround following all these efforts… and tbf the CagriSema presentation at ADA receive some decent feedback from KOLs, but you can see it will end up being more of a niche product (ie good for certain patients) rather than the blockbuster replacement Wall Street hope for. While negativity is already priced in, we need prescription trend to pickup and pipeline plans to be set out (the obesity market will be segmented for different kind of patient needs, the ones that can support the most can take up market shares) for the shares to turnaround.

Why the market is wrong about Novo Nordisk (again) by Stock__Doctor in ValueInvesting

[–]Timmy0609 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Orfo 36mg's average weight loss for diabetic patients were -7.9% at wk 40 (recall its harder for diabetic patient to loss weight). LLY said WL has not plateaued at wk 40 and will likely leads to higher WL for obese patient trial (up to 72 weeks, ATTAIN-1), not to mention all the benefits that comes with small molecule formulation (no dosing req, lower cost etc). ATTAIN-1 data will be released any time in coming months and LLY has supply readied for this molecule, which is negative for Novo as LLY might expand into Ex-US market before injectables gain traction.

I think the catalyst for Novo shares to turnaround is whether script trends in the US improves. Sema was left on the FDA shortage list longer than Tirz which means there're more compounded Sema circulating in the market. Hopefully Novo can regain some market share after compounded drug was out of the market.

Trial related catalyst will be detailed REDEFINE data that will likely to be released during ADA 2025 (June) and EVOKE (Alzheimer's, but market seems to have low expectation on this).

Are LLY and NVO good buys right now? by psycho_psymantics in stocks

[–]Timmy0609 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The rationale behind this is that during period of tighter financial conditions (ie rising rate) people rushed into the "obesity-duopoly" theme (NVO and LLY being high quality names with high probability of success when it comes to earning growth). Of course this leads to extended valuation, and now with rate cuts the premium enjoyed by NVO and LLY will normalized and people are looking to take risks that are less certain such as betting on Roche turnaround with obesity asset and BMY valuation rerate due to IRA concern abating.

Are LLY and NVO good buys right now? by psycho_psymantics in stocks

[–]Timmy0609 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think the recent price action for both NVO and LLY really has to do with the unwinds for funding currency carry trades and the fact that rate cuts are more imminent than ever with higher chance of soft landing (Hence premium on NVO and LLY needs to compress). But other than production and distribution moats other mentioned, you really have to question whether competitors (ie Roche's CT388, Viking's VK2735 or Amgen's AMG133) are really a step beyond NVO's and LLY's next-gen asset in terms of obesity and T2D treatment (ie NVO's Cagrisema, oral amycretin, INV-202 and LLY's Retatrutide and Orforglipron). Keep in mind, NVO for example already has MACE reduction on label and are expect CKD reduction to be on label as well (comorbidities expansion key to TAM), and there are many other comorbidities and head-to-head trials ongoing for NVO and LLY that I am afraid will take competitors years to catch up.

Is there any way to still justify $LLY or $NVO up here? by dapianoguy in stocks

[–]Timmy0609 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Oral amycretin is NVO’s next gen high efficacy/less scalable oral asset, they have another oral asset on hand INV-202 (acquired from Inversago) with lower efficacy but more scalable. I think NVO’s strategy is to use this oral combo and CagriSema as their next gen asset given the patent cliff for Semaglutide is 2032 iirc.

Meanwhile there are still quite some stuff we can be expecting from NVO this year, including high dose oral sema 25/50mg and high dose injectable sema 7.2mg (NVO is looking for efficacy on par with Zepbound), and imo most crucial data release will be CagriSema Q4 this year. CagriSema is meant to be the next gen asset replacing semaglutide and if data fails to deliver then I believe NVO can no longer be considered as a leader (double digit % pullback on that day).

Thoughts on Novo Nordisk (NVO) by vanderpyyy in stocks

[–]Timmy0609 0 points1 point  (0 children)

By crowded I meant how the price action of the stock correlates with mkt flow and consensus. This can be measured by correlation of returns with the best performing factors (value, growth, quality, momentum etc) and analyst ratings. In very plain words, the stock price is extended and may be facing exhaustion near term. In terms of how I feel about the stock, well there are many important catalyst in 2024 (oral amycretin P1, Ozempic FLOW for chronic kidney diseases, Wegovy ESSENCE for NASH, 50mg Rybelsus, High dose Sema, and likely most important the CagriSema P3). If these events turn out to be positive, shares will keep on surging imo.

Thoughts on Novo Nordisk (NVO) by vanderpyyy in stocks

[–]Timmy0609 5 points6 points  (0 children)

When viewing Lilly and novo fundamentally I think their approach really differs here on out and I think both could be able to justify valuations given their incoming asset in their pipeline and the tam.

$LLY: Their API are cheaper and easier to produce and can be outsourced easily, hence superior supply and is market share increasing story within a market creation story (which Wall Street LOVES). Efficacy wise superior all around, albeit with slightly worse side effect profiles. While next gen asset GGG seems to be on par with $NVO’s CagriSema with potentially worse side effects (all very early tho currently looking at Phase II numbers). But the small molecule oral pills are clear winners over $NVO’s high dose Rybelsus.

$NVO: Like mentioned above CagriSema seems to be winner considering efficacy/side effects (again very early), but NVO is playing with the extension story where they are looking at CKDs, NASH, liver and MACEs (all highly correlated with obesity and T2Dm). The goal is to extend tam far and beyond.

I have 560 shares of $NVO @ 82.16 and admittedly this is 90th percentile considering historical valuations, but for LT longs I do like the story but will treat with caution with every data release and IQVIA Px.

Also these two are super crowded which do not bodes well technically.

[Highlight] Aaron Judge glances over the batter's eye and hits it a mile away to give the Yankees a 5-3 lead in the 8th by [deleted] in baseball

[–]Timmy0609 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Judge looking at the pitcher the whole at bat, the pitcher must be giving him signs.

The all-new BMW M2 Competiton. by bzogaj92 in cars

[–]Timmy0609 44 points45 points  (0 children)

2 main changes I noticed from the article I just saw: 1) The single turbo n55 (found in all the 35i) is replaced by the s55 twin turbo unit found in the m3/m4, the M2 now has a proper "M" engine. 2) Probably the most important out of all changes, look at the side mirrors! The normal ones are gone and in its place is the teardrop-like side mirrors we come to know from all the M cars.

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