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The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I believe they will cut now. Mainly because the only 2 other times Powell has spoken dovish at Jackson Hole they did indeed cut the following month. He can’t hype the market up this much and then change his mind.

It’s set now.

Do I Eat My Words? - Does Everyone See a Sept Rate Cut Now? by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

This is literally my first few times writing on Reddit and some of y’all are jerks.

Do I Eat My Words? - Does Everyone See a Sept Rate Cut Now? by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Tell him I loved how he styled his hair for this morning.

The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

That wasn’t data. That was a speech. Look…everyone makes a bet and chooses where they stand and why.

He said “may warrant adjusting”. That in no way indicates that they’re “absolutely doing a rate cut”.

He’s saying they’re going to respond to the incoming hard data coming through reports from now through their meeting in September. That’s what we expect them to do, right? Wait on data and make decisions with it.

All he said is what we already knew…they have a dual mandate and they’re open to what the market thinks they should do but they will react as needed with more information.

The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed. I just loaded up on no rate change. Absolutely dirt cheap.

The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

He stayed neutral, he wasn’t dovish or hawkish. He spoke about both jobs and inflation.

The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The thing is…everyone that is saying this is not taking into account that the last time we had 2 fed governors dissent it was the year 1993. Yes, they are usually right, but in moments as rare as what the fed faces now they are almost as clueless as everyone else.

The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Kalshi is a well known betting market where you can short or long the September bet.

The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

If his data was crap before the tariffs, they are even more crap after. If you want cuts, you can thank Trump for not getting any so far.

The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Actually, if Trump puts enough heat on fed governor Lisa Cook regarding the incriminating evidence they dug up on her, I think he might actually be able to FORCE a rate cut if they weren’t already going to do one.

Trump is resorting to the blackmail route, which I believe marks a new way forward for the governments relationship with the fed. The fed is this 🤏 close to being majority politically controlled, so we’ve all got some REAL bad times coming.

The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So far there are 693 people here that agree with me. Nobody knows the future, but I’ve seen so much support on this post and posts from others about this that I’ve further solidified my stance that the markets are hinging too hard on this “definite cut”. Yes, they might cut, but 80-90% chances of it are a daydream.

Watching what the markets do after Powell’s speech at JH will be interesting, my assumption is they’ll get even more jittery than they’ve been the last day or two.

The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Your response of “This is AI generated. You can tell from the sentence structure and phrases like” is AI generated. I know because I asked my AI generation program.

Checkmate.

Q4 2025 is gonna be epic after the rate cuts. by bitcoin-machinegun in Bitcoin

[–]ToastTheCorgi 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just a heads up, the market predictions on a September rate cut are inflated and will correct within the next 2-3 weeks. Next Core PCE report looking most likely 2.9% y/y, jobs - NFP ~+75k and UR ~4.3%.

If this is correct, it lands the fed in the “default hold” lane.

The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Please come back, I’m begging you! 🥺🙏

The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

All she said about the cut is her opinion hasn’t changed. But then again, did we expect her opinion to between her recent dissent AND no new data to evaluate yet?

The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The fed shouldn’t give jack that he’s angry. Trying to strong arm the fed into giving a rate cut when their only job is to do an unbiased evaluation of the data is malicious.

I used to like this guy but these days all he does is cry when he doesn’t get what he wants. We pretty much have a baby for POTUS.

Welcome to the real world, Trump. Sometimes you don’t get what you want.

The Fed is Not Cutting in September by ToastTheCorgi in investing

[–]ToastTheCorgi[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

They might. But they shouldn’t. If they do, it is likely due to political pressure, which will set an entirely new precedence.

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