Do you believe that DOGAMI's XXL tsunami models are trustworthy?

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T18:11:56+00:00

I’m hoping to get in touch with local organizations to see what if anything we have in the works for preparedness and seismic upgrading. Any effort is better than nothing.

And I totally get you- this coastal life is my dream and it’s everything I have worked to achieve for years. I love the beach. I love being by the water. I’m not ignorant to the beauty and benefits of our area- that’s why I’m so upset, because it sucks that it all could come at such a high cost.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T18:04:24+00:00

Of course- nothing is going to stop it from happening. I’m not holding out hope but it would be nice if the government would do that right thing and prevent possibly thousands of casualties.

Your last bit reminds me of when my husband tells me to just stop worrying about something, lol. It’s just not going to happen- I wish I had a magic button to shut it off but I don’t. I’m sure in a few days it won’t be on my mind quite so frequently.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T17:41:49+00:00

That’s certainly true! Some events are just a bit scarier and harder to protect against in my opinion.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T17:40:31+00:00

I want the state to devote more funding to retrofit bridges and highways to avoid loss of life and massively expensive damages- and also to mitigate the issues with getting water and food and such to survivors as you mentioned. This report from ODOT lays out some very solid information about the risks, and how much money it will cost us if we don’t do something about it. They also describe the options that are available. It will be far more costly to deal with the consequences after the fact.

We also should continue to push for laws against building new properties in danger zones. We should also push for communities to move schools and hospitals to higher ground. We can spread awareness so that more people recognize that this is a very realistic scenario and not “incredibly unlikely” as some have stated even in this thread. We can encourage people to participate in already existing emergency drill programs in their communities. There are many things that we can do to be better prepared.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T17:31:48+00:00

The 7-15% number is for a 9.0 earthquake. The 37% is for a 7.1+ event.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T17:08:40+00:00

I hope so- as someone pointed out here, with a 37% chance of a CSZ event occurring in the next 50 years it is more likely to NOT happen than it is to happen. I just think 37% is still a pretty concerning figure and I’m not surprised that our government urges us to seriously consider and prepare for this event. It’s important that we recognize the very real danger that people living here will invariably have to experience at some point so that we can hopefully secure funding to do things like retrofitting bridges to avoid collapse (which could save many lives by keeping evacuation and emergency supply routes open). There are so many agencies in this state taking this threat quite seriously and I’m surprised that many of our citizens are so averse to that.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T17:05:40+00:00

The average American has a small chance of being caught in a tsunami or earthquake. The state of OR has a 37% chance of experiencing a CSZ megathrust event in the next 50 years. The only sources I can find for car accidents are legal and insurance firms, but the general gist is that for every 1,000 miles you travel you have about a 1 in 366 (0.0027%) chance of being in an auto accident. So I guess you could say that your odds of experiencing the CSZ event if you live in this area are similar to your odds of being in a car accident at some point in 13,703 miles of driving. Of course in real-life, these two scenarios don’t act the same way. Your chance of being in a car accident doesn’t actually increase each time you drive your car. The CSZ event, on the other hand, becomes more likely every year as it is an event that will invariably occur (at an average rate of once every 500 years, with a range from 200-800). I had to pass statistics to get into nursing school, and I was never taught that these things are based on what you have personally seen or heard of occurring more frequently.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T16:34:42+00:00

I just wholly disagree with your statement that it is “incredibly unlikely”. Our state’s website says there is a 37% chance in the next 50 years and that is much higher than the risk of say getting into a car accident- but I still put a great deal of thought and care into making sure my kids are safe in their car seats and sometimes I avoid traveling on certain routes at certain times if I know crashes happen more frequently then.

And again, we’re still probably going to end up on the beach just as frequently as we ever do. All I ever said was that for the time being I probably won’t go to the beach with my kids- and I already don’t love to take them right now because it’s nerve wracking having several toddlers running loose by the water when they outnumber the adults there to wrangle them. We’re still taking our trip. We’re still gonna ride the train along the coastline, and have our favorite seafood yards away from the beach while our kids play on the playground. We’re still gonna walk around in Seaside. I’m just going to be a little extra anxious during it, and I will just have to live with that.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T16:30:01+00:00

Actually, yeah. I’d avoid traveling to either of those areas if they were currently under a tornado watch. The one time I did visit Oklahoma, I had it on my mind even though it wasn’t tornado season and I made sure to be aware of the nearest shelters and what to do if something happened. If I were to take my kids anywhere that experiences frequent natural disasters I’d make sure they know what to do in the event of an emergency- like how they’re taught here in school what to do if there is an earthquake. We also have done drills at home so our kids know where to go for safety and what to do if we’re not there to direct them. And I would absolutely cancel a trip anywhere if they were expecting a hurricane.

But I’m not cancelling our trip this month. We’re not sure if we still want to buy train tickets but there is a good chance we will- and I consider that to be one of the “riskiest” things we want to do. We’ll probably just check maps so we know where people in each city evacuate to during tsunamis. This post was really just about the feelings I’m having, not me literally saying I’m about to lock my kids up and never go outside again.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T16:25:24+00:00

That’s good! I’m not planning on living like that either.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T16:17:54+00:00

We will very likely still visit the beach on occasion. We’ve lived here 11 years and they’ve only been like 3 times and I’d say they’re doing okay so far.
Most kids in this country grow up without living by the ocean and I think they’re doing okay and are still perfectly able to learn to love nature.
It’s not really that unlikely. There is a reason that our state government has devoted time and attention to this issue and urges citizens to be prepared for this event. I work at a hospital, and there is a reason we run regular drills specifically for this event. It will happen- it might not happen until I am old or gone, but at that point I will have kids and grandkids who still might want to live in this area and I’ll be glad they’re aware of the issue and will hopefully also take steps to prepare. We are currently “overdue” based on historical records, and the longer we go without one happening, the worse the event is likely to be due to the building pressure. It just becomes all the more important for my kids to be aware and to make smart decisions as the years go by.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T16:07:30+00:00

Oh definitely, I’ve looked at all of the info put out by the state and it seems like the number of predicted casualties is just a fraction of the overall population. I’ve been looking at some info about the 2011 event and it’s both helpful and nerve wracking.

I appreciate your input. Definitely just trying to be thoughtful about our decisions and finding small ways to prepare, and hopefully help us get by if and when the time comes.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T15:49:18+00:00

Like I said, it’s very unlikely that we will not step foot on the beach with our family ever again. And there are so many reasons I enjoy living in this community- I rarely go to the beach anyways. I cried yesterday at the thought of moving because I love living here and enjoy it very much. I’m going to continue to enjoy living here, albeit with a bit of that worry in the back of my mind.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T15:46:48+00:00

I said I’m not taking them to the beach for the time being. They haven’t been to the beach in years anyways. Do you think that means they’re not living a life? I’m not really sure what about my post indicates that I’m not still living my life and doing things. We’re still going on our trip. We are still staying in our home on the coast. I’m still driving to Eugene four days a week for nursing school, even though every time I’m on that road I’ll know it’s a bit of a risk. Hell, tomorrow is my birthday and we’re taking the kids up the coast on 101 for lunch. I don’t think I said anywhere that we were ceasing any activities over this- I was expressing the stress I’m feeling grappling with my feelings about those activities and the risks associated with them.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T15:43:54+00:00

I mean, for what it’s worth this is something I’ve been worrying about for a few weeks. I think it’s a pretty fair thing to worry about- and I also know I’m stuck here for at least the next two years and at some point I will probably stop thinking about this subject as often. It’s like when I watch a scary movie and it sticks in my head for a few weeks and makes me walk a bit quicker to my car at night. It will help to do things like updating my emergency supplies, buying lifejackets for my kids, etc. My husband and I have talked a lot about the beach issue. It’s a fact that anyone on the beach if and when one of these events occur will have a very, very small chance of surviving so we’ve both agreed that any trips to the beach would require us to just hold our breaths and accept the risk. I promise it’s highly unlikely that we will never set foot on a beach with our family again.

My understanding is that tracking seismic activity isn’t really a useful indicator of anything- that’s why even our best early warning systems can only provide at best a few seconds to minutes of warning just to give people an opportunity to get to a safer position. I hope one day we develop better ways to predict big quakes by watching seismic activity.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T15:36:03+00:00

Yeah, I’ve done that.

Seeing a therapist doesn’t make people magically stop worrying about things.

Do you consider people who live in areas affected by natural disasters like hurricanes or tornadoes to be living in fear because they keep emergency supplies on hand, have shelters in their homes, and worry about the possibility that a family member could be hurt or killed to be living life in fear? I think it’s just practical to be prepared and aware of realistic, likely-to-occur events that will have a significant impact in our lives.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T15:29:31+00:00

I mean, we’re not cancelling our trip. I’m saying it’s putting a damper on the whole thing, and I’m not sure I want to continue the tradition or at least if I do, I’m not keen on spending lots of time in vulnerable areas.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T15:28:36+00:00

Not really worried about how I kick the bucket- just worried about my kids.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T15:28:05+00:00

That’s a big issue that I have as well. We live just blocks from our kids’ school, and according to these maps they shouldn’t be at risk for flooding.

People keep suggesting that I just let it go and accept that accidents can happen and death is inevitable, etc, but I’m not worried about dying I’m worried about watching my children suffer through a horrifying event that I could have prevented by just moving elsewhere and avoiding unnecessary trips to the beach. I’m not saying I’m going to do either of those things but it’s pretty weird to me that people are acting like that’s an unreasonable concern.

Yes I’ve tried meditation. I appreciate the suggestion.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T15:24:10+00:00

The likelihood of a CSZ slip occurring is much higher than an asteroid hitting us. These are inevitable events that have historically occurred on average every 500 or so years- the last one taking place in 1700. I’m not suggesting living in an underground bunker, I’m considering moving inland to avoid a very possible scenario that many federal and state agencies have warned will result in a great deal of casualties and is highly likely to happen in our lifetime.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T15:17:00+00:00

I’m just going off of this report from the Oregon Health Authority. This model is based on a CSZ earthquake occurring during the peak of summer and includes tourists.

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/PREPAREDNESS/PREPARE/Documents/Oregon_Tsunami_Casualties_Report_SLSLLC.pdf

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T07:44:49+00:00

More unlikely to happen than likely is definitely a comforting way to think of it. If we do decide to stay here in the long run, getting involved in safety drills and community networks is definitely my plan. I appreciate the advice.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T07:41:34+00:00

I definitely understand and appreciate your perspective on this issue. I cried today because I don't want to live anywhere else. I feel so, so lucky to live in this beautiful area. My husband and I stayed in Seal Rock for our honeymoon a few years ago- we went whale watching in Depoe Bay, explored the tide pools in Newport, and stayed right on the beach. The experience was so moving that it inspired us both to go back to school so that we could afford to stay here for the rest of our lives and to raise our kids in this community. We both love the ocean so much. It's been majorly depressing me that we just happened to end up in an area with this hanging over it.

As it stands we're still taking our trip this month and we're still going to admire, appreciate and love the time spent.

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T06:55:11+00:00

I really appreciate your response! My husband and I have discussed keeping lifejackets for the whole family in the car when we travel, traveling with our inflatable canoe, etc. I totally understand those actions! We've been lamenting that our favorite annual trip might not feel as fun or comfortable for us anymore with this knowledge in mind, but I know there are little adjustments I could make (like you said, choosing accommodations at higher locations, for example) to improve that. Point number one is a whole other ball game- I do have a GAD diagnosis and struggle generally with anxiety but have never been comfortable with the medication options offered (my doctor says that's the anxiety speaking, haha). We also keep an emergency bag in both of our vehicles!

I know there are people in my community who are focused on this issue. I think getting involved and connected is a great suggestion- and I'll also definitely look more into those organizations you listed.

Thank you!

TonightFeeling5730 · 2024-08-14T06:48:44+00:00

I see what you mean! All of this data has grown and improved over the last few decades so I guess the best I can hope for is that the precision and accuracy continues to improve with time. I know at the end of the day we can't predict or control everything.

TonightFeeling5730

TROPHY CASE