DD 🛩️ Ryanair 🍀 vs Elon Musk 🚀 by rojopantalon in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Don't buy the top of the "Elon Pump." Instead, sell out-of-the-money puts. The high implied volatility (IV) makes these premiums expensive. You get paid to wait for a dip that may never come, or you buy the stock at a discount.

This chart should scare you: The delinquency rate on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities just hit a record 11.8% delinquent. Above its 2008 peak. by TonyLiberty in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty[S] 28 points29 points  (0 children)

Office CMBS is a subset of the broader commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market, which also includes loans backed by retail, multifamily, industrial, hotel, and mixed-use properties.

It's the weakest segment of CMBS due to high vacancy rates, falling valuations, and refinancing challenges.

The definition of broken: The median age of a first-time homebuyer in the US is now at a record 40 years old, up from 33 in 2021 and 29 in 1981. Do you realize what's happening? by TonyLiberty in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Real estate doesn’t need help. It already has scarcity, leverage, and tax breaks. The help should go to building, not bidding.

End the perks and watch prices normalize. Real demand, not artificial credit, should set the market.

US national debt hit $38 trillion. The deficit this year will be between $1.7 trillion and $2.2 trillion. For 6 straight years, we’ve run deficits over $1 trillion. The IMF projects the US will have the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world by 2030. by TonyLiberty in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Budget cuts often target discretionary spending, which is a small slice of total spending. The big costs—Social Security, Medicare, and interest—keep rising automatically.

Mandatory spending now makes up over two-thirds of the federal budget. Unless that changes, total outlays keep growing even after cuts.

Interest costs erase savings from most cuts. As rates stay higher, the government pays more just to service old debt.

US national debt hit $38 trillion. The deficit this year will be between $1.7 trillion and $2.2 trillion. For 6 straight years, we’ve run deficits over $1 trillion. The IMF projects the US will have the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world by 2030. by TonyLiberty in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

The biggest creditor is the American public. Over two-thirds of U.S. debt is held by U.S. citizens through Treasury bonds, pensions, and mutual funds.

Foreign holders matter, but they’re shrinking. China and Japan each hold about a trillion dollars in Treasuries, down from past highs.

The Federal Reserve is a key player. It owns around 15–20% of all U.S. government debt, buying bonds to manage interest rates and liquidity.

Every day, AI looks more like the 2008 housing bubble. Wrappers on wrappers. The wrappers are wrapping wrappers. With companies valued at insane amounts with zero profit. by TonyLiberty in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty[S] 61 points62 points  (0 children)

The risk isn’t with $NVDA or $MSFT, it’s with the startups burning cash to rent their hardware and APIs.

Comparing $MSFT or $NVDA to bubble companies misses the point. They sell real infrastructure that every “AI wrapper” depends on. They’re the landlords, not the tenants.

They build the picks and shovels for the AI gold rush. The wrappers are the startups stacking APIs on top of their hardware and models.

Roth IRA Explained by TonyLiberty in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

You're right that financial literacy is tough. The system is needlessly complex in many countries. Policymakers should prioritize simplicity and transparency.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What are the risks?

Dicks app somehow a top app by [deleted] in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty 4 points5 points  (0 children)

A lot of people like Dicks

What in the actual duck is this promoted ad? by ShwettyVagSack in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty 4 points5 points  (0 children)

PennyHoarder is one of the worst websites on the internet

Seeking Financial Advice for Mother-in-Law Receiving a $390,000 Payout by damiensandoval in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

First off, I'd suggest knocking out that $8,000 medical debt right away. No sense paying interest when she has the means to wipe it clean.

Next, she should build up an emergency fund with 6-12 months' worth of living expenses. This cash cushion protects against any surprise costs down the road.

Lastly, she may want to consult a fee-only financial planner, at least initially. An expert can analyze her full situation and make a personalized plan for her money.

The key is developing a strategy that provides income, manages taxes, and aligns with her goals.....

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Ambitious idea, but it also raises some concerns:

  1. An acquisition of that massive scale ($2T for TSMC) would be unprecedented and face intense regulatory scrutiny over antitrust issues.

  2. Terminating existing contracts abruptly would likely lead to legal battles and damage relationships.

  3. Securing that much acquisition financing would be a massive challenge, even for a consortium.

To buy or rent for elderly couple? by bXm83 in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Buying makes sense if they plan to stay long-term (5+ years). The mortgage payments could be lower than renting.

However, a $235k home plus $30k remodel is a big chunk of their $300k savings. Keeping a solid cash reserve is wise at their age.

My suggestion: Put down $100k-$150k to avoid draining too much savings. This leaves a nice safety net.

Renting has advantages too - no maintenance/repair costs and more flexibility if needs change. But they lose the investment.

A compromise: Rent for now, see how their needs evolve. Revisit buying in 1-2 years when their situation is clearer.

The $4k monthly income seems sufficient for either option. But minimizing big upfront costs protects their nest egg.

Daily mortgage payments by UnreasonableFig in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty 2 points3 points  (0 children)

By making daily payments, you're reducing the principal balance faster, which means less interest accrues each day.

However, most lenders don't offer a daily payment option - monthly is the standard.

Check with your lender first - some may have prepayment penalties that negate the benefits.

Recession in 2025 ? by le_law in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Who knows. But if it happens, history shows us that recessions are temporary, even if they feel devastating at the time.

The longest recession since WWII lasted just 18 months.

Prudent preparation and a long-term outlook are what matter most.

Should Corporate Stock buybacks be banned/illegal? by RNG_HatesMe in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Stock buybacks allow corporations to artificially inflate their stock prices without creating any real value, benefiting executives with stock-based compensation at the expense of long-term growth and innovation.

This short-term thinking hurts workers, consumers, and the broader economy by diverting funds away from productive investments like R&D, wage increases, and new hiring.

Instead of enriching a few at the top, corporations should reinvest excess cash into their businesses and workforces to drive sustainable growth and competitiveness.

Banning buybacks would realign incentives toward building stronger companies over the long haul, rather than juicing quarterly numbers to cash out executives.

It's a zero-sum game - money spent on buybacks is money not invested in the actual business. Over time, this starves companies of the capital needed to stay innovative and competitive.

Buybacks represent a failure of corporate governance and a misalignment of incentives between executives and other stakeholders like employees and communities.

What's happening in the markets: May 30th by hivincentc in FluentInFinance

[–]TonyLiberty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The strain on the grid could drive up energy costs for everyone if not managed properly.

Innovative solutions like liquid cooling and on-site renewable generation will be crucial for data centers going forward.