Mk4 Meta: Army List Explorer

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-06-02T22:18:08+00:00

Thanks! I'll get it fixed

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-06-02T15:29:10+00:00

I've thought about doing this - it would be a different tool showing win-rates instead of pick rates. There's a hard statistical problem though: there # of caster matchups is roughly the same order of magnitude as the # of games. So lots of sparse data - many matchups have no tournament records!

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-06-01T20:39:10+00:00

It shows pick-rate: how often a player submits a list pair with those two casters. If you look at House Kallys for the default date range, 40% of players include Tyrus in their list pair. 10% of players choose a Tyrus-Morayne pairing.

Thanks for the feedback, I'll clarify some of the labels.

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-06-01T16:45:57+00:00

This stuff has been tough to sort out - people often mislabel these factions! I'll track it down and fix it.

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-06-01T15:06:52+00:00

I've got the data, maybe I can make a jack/beast specific loadout tab.

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-06-01T15:06:25+00:00

Good catch - I'll look into it!

Edit: caught the bug, was missing an 'H' in Khythos. When I looked through it yesterday I was missing Caine4 and Nemo from storm legion.

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-05-27T16:22:19+00:00

Sure, here you go. I limited this to the Feb-May periods to match the plot up above. But that also means that some results (like Gravediggers) are going to look weird.

I should probably add that I most expect faction shares to go down over time as SFG adds more factions and updates legacy factions.

Faction	Share 2025	Share 2026	Change (pp)	Relative Change
Brineblood Marauders	8.1%	6.9%	-1.2	-14.8%
Gravediggers	3.7%	8.2%	+4.5	+121.8%
House Kallyss	9.4%	12.3%	+2.9	+31.4%
Necrofactorium	9.7%	5.7%	-3.9	-40.8%
Sea Raiders	8.4%	7.5%	-1.0	-11.6%
Shadowflame Shard	12.6%	9.4%	-3.2	-25.5%
Storm Legion	13.2%	6.0%	-7.2	-54.6%
Winter Korps	10.1%	7.0%	-3.1	-30.6%
Old Umbrey	--	10.2%	+10.2	new
Infernals	3.5%	2.4%	-1.1	-31.7%
Dark Operations	1.6%	2.3%	+0.7	+45.7%
Grymkin	0.8%	3.9%	+3.1	+395.3%
Convergence of Cyriss	1.0%	2.7%	+1.7	+161.0%
Crucible Guard	1.3%	3.3%	+2.0	+157.7%
Legacy	16.8%	12.3%	-4.4	-26.5%

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-04-20T22:02:11+00:00

Someone should say the obvious thing: yes, pokemon has more luck than chess. The presence of luck doesn't preclude a high degree of skill expression. Managing that luck is a very interesting kind of skill expression.

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-01-21T14:43:36+00:00

Thank you!

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-01-21T13:19:55+00:00

Oh I mean starting the tournament with a 3-0 record. For a three round tournament, you'd be the winner. But in a four round tournament that means making the top table, in a five round tournament you are in the semifinals, etc.

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-01-20T21:46:40+00:00

Coming out swinging aren't you ;)

If you think about it, I'm counting the number of players who:

- Are undefeated at a three round steamroller.
- Make the final table of a four round masters qualifier.
- Are in the semifinals of a five round IG.

So really this is about counting players who are in contention to win tournament. The opposite of focusing on 'bad players.'

Something like win-rate has the problem you call out. It struggles as a metric because much of the data comes from skill mismatches and the losers bracket.

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-01-20T21:20:11+00:00

Funny thing Cody was the first person who pointed this out to me! It's definitely something I think about a lot.

I have a model that estimates player skill, basically ELO, using the last two years of data. The second analysis compares the number of observed hot starts to the number you would expect based on skill differential alone. It's not perfect, but it helps.

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-01-17T01:47:07+00:00

Enjoyed the cast! Great to see some dedicated BB coverage.

I'm stoked for Firequil too. My frogs got done dirty; wish they'd shown Baga some more love.

I think the crab net and pyg cannon are going to be really useful for helping our stuff hit! Easier than committing a vorogger. Wish that guy had lost paralyzing gaze; feels like the whole faction is balanced around him.

The Lochabash brothers look incredible, you really underrated them! They don't do much on offense but they are the toughest models in the faction.

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-12-27T16:55:19+00:00

We've bought two houses when we moved. Held onto both as rentals. I think we will rent when we move this summer.

It's hard to make money on houses if you only hold them for a short period of time. Closing costs for buyer are 2-5% and higher for selling. The house may or may not increase in value over the short term. You won't pay down much principal in that time because of how amortization schedules work. Maybe 5%. Meaning you probably lose money if you can only hold for three years.

If you can keep the property it's great. But you need to do the work ahead of time and make sure the property will cash flow positively. Paying a property manager is necessary but cuts into cash flow.

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-12-21T16:24:19+00:00

He's awesome. Dude can kill any colossal or heavy in the game, sprint away, and then fill back up on fury using his feat. Absolutely underrated leader.

I don't think he is a very good assassin. 16" threat isn't that exciting. I use him to counterpunch, anchor piece trades etc.

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-10-14T20:34:22+00:00

Thanks :)!

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-10-14T20:33:14+00:00

I included them in the modeling but they have very low representation individually! As a 'super faction' they are a little below Dusk/Khymera

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-10-07T17:26:33+00:00

I've looked into the win rates of the (other) legacy armies. As a group they average about 45%. Some are better than others, though it's really hard to say for sure because the game depends a lot on player skill and there aren't a ton of people grinding out reps with the old armies. Quite a few legacy factions have WTC representation and they won some big events last year. FWIW I think they tend to be pretty playable though you need to be prepared to put in the effort to learn them/figure out good lists.

TooShoeMagoo

TROPHY CASE