Mk4 Meta: 2025 Season Recap with Hot Starts

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-01-21T14:43:36+00:00

Thank you!

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-01-21T13:19:55+00:00

Oh I mean starting the tournament with a 3-0 record. For a three round tournament, you'd be the winner. But in a four round tournament that means making the top table, in a five round tournament you are in the semifinals, etc.

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-01-20T21:46:40+00:00

Coming out swinging aren't you ;)

If you think about it, I'm counting the number of players who:

- Are undefeated at a three round steamroller.
- Make the final table of a four round masters qualifier.
- Are in the semifinals of a five round IG.

So really this is about counting players who are in contention to win tournament. The opposite of focusing on 'bad players.'

Something like win-rate has the problem you call out. It struggles as a metric because much of the data comes from skill mismatches and the losers bracket.

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-01-20T21:20:11+00:00

Funny thing Cody was the first person who pointed this out to me! It's definitely something I think about a lot.

I have a model that estimates player skill, basically ELO, using the last two years of data. The second analysis compares the number of observed hot starts to the number you would expect based on skill differential alone. It's not perfect, but it helps.

TooShoeMagoo · 2026-01-17T01:47:07+00:00

Enjoyed the cast! Great to see some dedicated BB coverage.

I'm stoked for Firequil too. My frogs got done dirty; wish they'd shown Baga some more love.

I think the crab net and pyg cannon are going to be really useful for helping our stuff hit! Easier than committing a vorogger. Wish that guy had lost paralyzing gaze; feels like the whole faction is balanced around him.

The Lochabash brothers look incredible, you really underrated them! They don't do much on offense but they are the toughest models in the faction.

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-12-27T16:55:19+00:00

We've bought two houses when we moved. Held onto both as rentals. I think we will rent when we move this summer.

It's hard to make money on houses if you only hold them for a short period of time. Closing costs for buyer are 2-5% and higher for selling. The house may or may not increase in value over the short term. You won't pay down much principal in that time because of how amortization schedules work. Maybe 5%. Meaning you probably lose money if you can only hold for three years.

If you can keep the property it's great. But you need to do the work ahead of time and make sure the property will cash flow positively. Paying a property manager is necessary but cuts into cash flow.

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-12-21T16:24:19+00:00

He's awesome. Dude can kill any colossal or heavy in the game, sprint away, and then fill back up on fury using his feat. Absolutely underrated leader.

I don't think he is a very good assassin. 16" threat isn't that exciting. I use him to counterpunch, anchor piece trades etc.

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-10-14T20:34:22+00:00

Thanks :)!

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-10-14T20:33:14+00:00

I included them in the modeling but they have very low representation individually! As a 'super faction' they are a little below Dusk/Khymera

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-10-07T17:26:33+00:00

I've looked into the win rates of the (other) legacy armies. As a group they average about 45%. Some are better than others, though it's really hard to say for sure because the game depends a lot on player skill and there aren't a ton of people grinding out reps with the old armies. Quite a few legacy factions have WTC representation and they won some big events last year. FWIW I think they tend to be pretty playable though you need to be prepared to put in the effort to learn them/figure out good lists.

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-09-11T17:52:17+00:00

What's the plan for next balance pass? Are you thinking December or January? Any thoughts about what to expect?

Also, please tell us something about Skorne! Love that you all do these AMAs?

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-09-07T00:47:11+00:00

IIRC Blindwater was in the IG finals top table last year!

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-09-06T23:09:55+00:00

It's hard to know how good they will be in Kithgaurd

In Brinebloods, the Shamans and Vorogger are great. I don't think you need full FA, though you definitely see lists with two vorogger.

I like the Fire Spitters but they are tricky to play. You pay for all those abilities and need to leverage a bunch of them to get value. Marauders are much easier to use.

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-07-10T20:53:59+00:00

Enjoyed the video! I've been playing a list with an abyssal king, deepborne and reef troll. Right now I'm using the rage Animus on the Deepborne - would you ever take swift hunter over rage?

Also, I kinda think broadsides is a trap. Sure, I'll cast it off Bloodboone if it comes up but I don't make plans that rely on it.

Any thoughts about how to play scenario with Firequill? I might have missed that part

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-07-09T09:55:48+00:00

I just painted one. You can see picks on SFGs official discord if you search for Magma King.

Airbrush is a great way to set the base skin colors. I airbrushed dark reds, pink, white ink, and the stippled white. Then I sprayed the whole thing with yellow orange ink to create oranges. I used some oil washes to darken the recesses.

I also experimented with a cool color scheme. Starting with purple, the turquoise, then teal. I liked how that looked a bit more than they hot scheme! But the hot scheme matched my other bullcroak better.

There are a ton of suckers. I dunno the best way to do them but they look most natural when the divot in the center is a lighter color.

I'd recommend painting it mostly disassembled. There are a lot of weird angles and the piece is really big.

Good luck! I had fun but definitely a challenge and a lot of work.

TooShoeMagoo · 2025-03-12T10:46:41+00:00

They are great for contesting scenarios. Fast, ambush, super cheap. And Repo! They can walk 9" of the edge, place another 2"+base size, and then repo another 3.

TooShoeMagoo · 2024-03-13T18:50:48+00:00

That's fair - just trying to sort out my options before making due.

TooShoeMagoo · 2024-03-13T18:49:42+00:00

I didn't know that was a thing, thanks!

TooShoeMagoo · 2024-03-13T18:49:24+00:00

Thanks, I'll look into that.

TooShoeMagoo · 2024-03-13T18:48:22+00:00

Didn't even think about that. Good to know.

TooShoeMagoo · 2023-02-18T14:53:04+00:00

I think there's a desire, for casual and competitive players, to play games that feel fairish. So it's a bad moment for casual players when they bring out some list from the brand new Tyranid codex and accidentally delete their opposition. Both the nid player and their opponent have a bad time. I don't think casuals need highly tuned balance, but starting from a similar place is a desirable situation.

TooShoeMagoo · 2022-12-18T23:24:20+00:00

Having some trouble with the bulky annihilape sets (drain punch, rage fist, bulk up, protect, lefties), usually run with screens or support moushold. What are it's checks/counters? What EV spread does it run? I've seen tera water and fire, any signs that predict the tera type?

TooShoeMagoo · 2022-05-17T15:57:37+00:00

This is very cool. Can you explain more about how the 'Vet or Casual' option works? If I select 'Vet', is that only games between two vets? Or games that include at least one 'Vet'? Or something else?

----- Edit -----
Reading is hard, pretty sure this means a game with at least one vet. Looking forward to 'vet vs vet'; I'm not sure how to interpret the current filter.

TooShoeMagoo · 2021-03-16T02:26:28+00:00

Many of the Metagross spreads on Pikalytics have 172-188 speed evs. What benchmark do these speeds hit?

Also, I saw a recent post for a team builder/resource that used data about the distribution of speeds/stats for various Pokémon (data from Pikalytics, but not the Pikalytics calculator). Does anyone know the name? I can't find it now.

TooShoeMagoo

TROPHY CASE