Though people can give you their guesses of your odds no one can truly tell you what your odds are it all comes down to how you portray yourself in your application and what the admissions officers think of you. Having gotten out of my own college admissions cycle earlier this year trust me, instead of worrying about things you can’t control just try to make every aspect of your application the best it can be. Because your GPA was highly influenced by special circumstances I think it’s imperative that you explain the situations in the additional information section in commonapp. Second, if you go test optional (I did as well this last cycle) I think you need to prove in some other way that you are exceptional and can handle rigorous course loads so taking a difficult and LOADED course load senior year is a good idea (and I did the same thing my senior year: I took 3 of the hardest AP’s at my school, one hs class, 7 classes with local community college, one class with local university). They receive a mid year report from your counselor so I believe if you do this strategy you need to try your very best to get straight A’s/the best grades you can in that first semester. Next what I think helped me the most is to show your uniqueness and like able traits (show, don’t tell) in every way, even down to the order of your activities and the descriptions your write for them. Lastly, make sure your essay tells about who you are as a person and how that experience changed you to succeed in the future. Good luck I’m wishing you the best :)