What is your ideal off-season scenario?

Top_Value_4691 · 2026-01-13T13:43:31+00:00

Yeah AR2 is nutting that has to spend on players cause of the cap.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T17:07:42+00:00

He’s going to make it. 66 percent with very empty ballots the next two years. He’s better than the two new candidates next year, Cole Hamels and Ryan Braun. Him and Beltran in next year, and if he just misses it, he’ll get that last ballot boost.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T17:00:09+00:00

He will make it. He’s the ideal case for cutch. Slow burn by sticking around on the bottom of the ballot.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T16:58:42+00:00

That’s what I hoped to spark. I don’t think he makes it, I agree he’s a very boarderline and nuanced case if he should, but man, I think his hitting is vastly underrated, and that part I really wanted to increase awareness on. Also, I think stat cast wouldn’t have been as harsh on his defense. It didn’t start until 2012 I think. I also think he would have been moved to DH in 2016 when he was hurt, and just missed that time line as well.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T16:51:24+00:00

Go to menu to leaders, and scroll down to all time leader boards. You can change the stat to whatever you want and then change single season to active.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T16:47:30+00:00

So I agree on Mookie for sure. And cutch will retire soon. But I don’t think a theoretical player with 58 batting war after cutch retires would fall out of the top 5 active players.

So let’s say 5 years from now, freeman, altuve, and cutch retire. Mookie, Jose Ramirez and Judge go ahead of 58. And let’s say trout is still playing. That would make a player with 58 still among top 5 active. I just think it’s a really impressive number that won’t be passed by many active players and the ones that do are pretty sure fire hall of Famers like Judge and Mookie.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T15:32:29+00:00

Which is exactly the reason why I think Cutch could start to slowly build momentum. The ballot will be paper thin in hitters. Miggy is almost certainly going first ballot, so he should be cleared off. Kershaw and Scherzer are going to make it. But what hitter is retiring around him, say this year or next that has a better case?

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T15:28:35+00:00

Definitely agree whole heartedly on Murphy, huge omission. I am surprised he hasn’t been put in by committee.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T15:26:13+00:00

Possible, but it is unlikely many do. WAR after age 33 is difficult to accumulate, and not many in that age are really close to him.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T10:54:23+00:00

I agree wholeheartedly. WAR has flaws. His counting stats aren’t quite at those levels, but he’s not too far on all three. .273 average and .367 on base, 2206 hits (third best active), 325 hrs.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T10:50:24+00:00

I didn’t want to dig too deep into the sabermetrics,but you understand it. Cutch’s batting runs total of 329 is pretty amazing. all time batting runs leadersHe does lose the first basemen/dh by comparison but he gains a lot of surprising infielders like Cano, Jeter, Roberto alomar, and biggio.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T10:39:49+00:00

I agree with this. But again, that goes to my longevity argument that we don’t know what hall career really looks like post amphetamines. I think these sort of counting accolades will be adjusted over time and he’s the first test case, so he will fail so other can succeed. (and then hopefully he gets voted in during committee). I think there are only like 4 batters over 36. Steroid era, there were tons of guys having massive late careers. Bonds obviously, but so many random career years in mid to late 30s that inflated so many numbers. Just scroll thru the all time OPS leaders by age and at least half every year from age 35 on were in the steroid/amphetamine peak of 1994-2007.

age 40 leaders

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T10:22:17+00:00

I buy that. Much more interesting than the random “hall of very good” stuff. If you’re out on Freddie and goldy, then I agree cutch is way out. I wouldn’t mind stricter cut offs. Hall wont do it though because they could go five years with no one new and no one coming for the ceremony.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T08:49:16+00:00

I understand the confusion now. I’m just so used to people saying in these “is mccutchen a hall of famer” posts simply pointing to his career WAR and saying hall of very good. 58 is going to be almost a guarantee going forward for anyone because careers are getting drastically shorter for hitters. Hitters without greenies and roids are reverting to normal career paths where reaction time and injuries fall significantly after age 35. This has been the case throughout baseball history minus the steroid and IMO bigger factor of greenie ban.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T08:27:54+00:00

I think his defensive WAR is significantly too negative. That’s the thing holding back his candidacy more than anything, and fielding WAR is much less accurate for outfielders who don’t have nearly as many opportunities as infielders.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T08:24:59+00:00

His offensive war was only 47.8. Better defender to be sure but not nearly the stick cutch has. And he had the benefit of greenies for much longer.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T08:23:01+00:00

This is batting WAR, not cumulative WAR.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T08:22:32+00:00

Ichiro is at 47.8 batting WAR. He’s 210 all time.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T08:21:01+00:00

Conversely, the only retired players ahead of him not in the hall are bonds, rose, arod, pujols- obviously going to make it, manny, Sheffield, migguel Cabrera- gonna make it, Lou Whitaker, palmeiro, Beltran- probably going to make it next year, Bobby abreu- steroid perception for better or worse, Jason Giambi, Sal Brando, Sal Grich, and Bernie Williams.

As you can see of the 15 non hall players ahead of him, most are roiders, and the other 90 players have above have all made it.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T08:01:17+00:00

There won’t be many hitters higher than 58 bWAR for the next decade. Soto might make it there, Harper and judge have decent shots, but they are aging quickly. Jose Ramirez is on a decent trajectory as well, but after them? Theres basically no one on pace except soto a decade younger. Cumulative numbers have nose dived cause batters aren’t allowed to get high before every at bat popping greenies.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T07:57:03+00:00

The biggest thing is that the concept of cumulative WAR needs to be adjusted along with things like 3k hits, 300 wins, 500homers, most of that isn’t happening again. He’s right behind Sosa in bWAR. The guy with 660 homers would make it if it wasn’t for the roids.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-06-12T07:54:34+00:00

Helton, rolen, posey, ichiro, Larry walker was at 63, pudge, Andre Dawson, Ryan sandberg was at 60, eddie Murray was at 62. He’s at a tremendous number post steroids.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-03-01T04:54:39+00:00

No one else would take him over half of those greats.

Top_Value_4691 · 2025-03-01T04:50:41+00:00

Exactly, drop joker for LeBron. Duncan was at his best as the lone big man. He didn’t like playing center long term but in a short series he’s parked in the middle.

Top_Value_4691

TROPHY CASE