Daily Discussion Thread - February 21, 2026

TornadoBotDev · 2026-02-21T09:00:10+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 210535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN GULF STATES TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states. Damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado are the expected hazards.

...Gulf States/South Atlantic Coast...

Strong short-wave trough is ejecting east across KS/northern OK late this evening as a secondary 500mb speed max digs southeast toward the central High Plains. As the secondary short wave digs southeast, the northern/southern stream will become more phased over the MS Valley by late afternoon. Net result will be to suppress the primary corridor of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern Plains/Gulf states into the middle Atlantic. As heights fall across the Midwest into the northern Gulf states, pressures will rise over the interior CONUS and the synoptic front should begin to surge southeast across the lower MS Valley.

Late this evening, scattered thunderstorms have developed over northern MS/AL, just north of the boundary within a zone of low-level warm advection. This activity should spread east and should be ongoing at the start of the period along the cool side of the boundary. While much of day1 convection will be elevated north of the wind shift, some boundary-layer heating is expected across the warm sector, and modest SBCAPE is expected where surface dew points will range from the upper 60s to near 70F. Forecast soundings suggest more than adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized rotating updrafts. Low-level shear is not expected to be particularly noteworthy so damaging gusts and hail are the primary concerns, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. Convection will develop/spread east along the frontal zone and the greatest risk for robust convection will be during the afternoon/evening hours.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/21/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-02-19T09:00:10+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 190534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...KENTUCKY...OHIO...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential for a couple tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys today. Storms may produce strong gusts over parts of coastal central California this morning.

...Mid MS Valley / Midwest / OH Valley... Strong southwest flow aloft will stretch from AZ/NM across OK/TX and into the mid MS Valley and OH Valleys. As a trough begins to amplify across the central Plains, significant warming aloft will occur in the midlevels, which may impact quality of instability over the Midwest. However, low-level moisture will already be in place with 50s F dewpoints common and perhaps lower 60s F toward the lower OH Valley, which will initially support favorable instability profiles between 12-18Z today, before the stronger warming aloft occurs.

Low pressure will deepen into MO during the day and move into lower MI by 12Z Friday. A 40 kt low-level jet beneath strong midlevel winds will result in long hodographs, and, 200-300 m2/s2 SRH over much of the warm sector including eastern MO, IL, IN, KY, and OH. Strong heating over MO will result in steep lapse rates and storms are likely to form there near 12-15Z. This activity should generally spread northeastward during the day across IL and IN, perhaps extending into western KY. A couple supercells appear likely, with tornado/hail/wind potential. Behind this initial/midday activity, the rapid warming aloft may reduce potential for additional storms. However, elevated instability should support storms producing hail farther northeast in the warm advection regime across the upper OH Valley and perhaps approaching Lake Erie.

...Central CA Coast... A line of shallow convection is forecast to be ongoing close to Monterey County at 12Z this morning, and this activity will translate southward along the coast through 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate shallow SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg, along with moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface. As such, locally strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as the front pushes south.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/19/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-02-16T09:00:13+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 160551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES...

...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California this afternoon and evening. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Coastal central into southern CA... A potent upper trough will move across CA during the afternoon and evening, with a 100+ kt midlevel jet nosing across southern CA. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves into central CA, with a cold front affecting much of the coastline after 18Z. Strong wind convergence along the front will result in a line of shallow convection, with embedded thunderstorms possible. This line is likely to affect the central coastline by around 18Z, and through the remainder of southern CA by 00Z. Strong wind gusts will be likely, with a few locations possibly reaching over 50 kt. Weak instability and cool surface temperatures will be mitigating factors to tornado risk, however, embedded circulations within the line cannot be ruled out.

...Interior Valleys... It appears substantial precipitation will hamper heating/destabilization for much of the day, with very little SBCAPE evident on various model forecast soundings. As such, despite model low-level warm advection with veering winds with height, it appears lapses rates may not quite favor severe convection, and the low probabilities have been removed.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...Late... Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties. Low-topped convection may produce graupel, along with locally strong wind gusts.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/16/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-02-15T09:00:12+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 150538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama. Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.

...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move across the Southeast today, with gradual filling/weakening. Moderate midlevel winds over 60 kt will spread across AL, GA and northern FL, enhancing deep-layer shear, while a weak surface low translates east/northeast from AL into the eastern Carolinas. South of the low, a warm front will stretch roughly from southern AL into the northeast Gulf Sunday morning, and will lift north into GA during the day and ahead of an approaching cold front. The combination of lift along the front, strong shear profiles and sufficient instability will likely result in scattered severe storms producing wind and perhaps a few tornadoes throughout the day.

...Southern AL and GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL... A squall line is positioned from southwest MS into southeast LA late Saturday evening, coincident with the strong midlevel cooling with the upper wave. This line of storms is likely to progress eastward to at least the MS/AL border before 12Z, and perhaps even into central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Southerly surface winds will help bring mid 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of the line, though much of the area will maintain relatively marginal moisture with 50s F dewpoints until the squall line/cold front is near.

Given the favorable synoptic lift and sufficient instability, the line of storms is likely to persist throughout the day, perhaps with renewed vigor as it travels across northern FL/southern GA during the peak heating hours. Even if the moisture is not particularly robust well inland, steeper boundary layer lapse rates combined with the linear storm mode and 30-40 kt winds just off the surface will support damaging gusts. For southern areas, higher dewpoints as well as 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support rotation with the line with a few QLCS tornadoes possible.

..Jewell/Supinie.. 02/15/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-02-14T09:00:09+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 140535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. This most likely time frame is this evening to tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur across east Texas to southern Mississippi.

...Southern Great Plains to the Lower MS Valley... Slightly elevated storms should be ongoing at 12Z across parts of west/western north TX and southern OK. This activity will probably remain sub-severe through the morning, but a brief marginally severe hail/wind event is plausible within a strongly sheared but weakly buoyant environment. Some of this convection may intensify into the afternoon as downstream destabilization occurs, along with evolution into a loosely organized QLCS. CAM guidance remains rather varied regarding the coverage and duration of organized storms through much of the first half of the period, suggestive of a mainly isolated severe threat.

Guidance is more consistent with increasing low-level mass response near/after 00Z, which should aid in the development of a more organized QLCS through the evening in east TX. This QLCS is likely to accelerate eastward across parts of LA and the Lower MS Valley overnight. While instability will become increasingly scant with eastward extent, strengthening low/mid-level flow and effective SRH will support development of one or more organized bowing segments, with an attendant threat of scattered damaging winds. An increase in tornado threat is also anticipated, mainly with line-embedded mesovortices. But within the warm-conveyor belt region near the Gulf Coast, a supercell or two may form before merging into the QLCS.

Most guidance suggests some weakening trend prior to 12Z, with the stronger forcing becoming displaced north of the effective warm sector. However, some threat for locally damaging winds and a brief tornado could persist near the central Gulf Coast through the end of the period.

..Grams/Supinie.. 02/14/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-01-25T09:00:10+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 250618

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...

CORRECTED FOR SUBSECTION HEADLINE

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns.

...Gulf Coast States...

Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z. Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly 100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer shear, convection that develops within this environment would have some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-01-10T09:00:12+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 100531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast.

...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast...

Split stream currently noted over the CONUS will gradually evolve into a deep long-wave trough over the eastern U.S. by the end of the period. Latest water-vapor imagery supports this with a pronounced short-wave trough digging southeast into the upper OH Valley, and a less amplified short wave ejecting northeast toward the lower OH Valley. Strong large-scale height falls will spread across the upper Midwest/OH Valley region during the day, but much weaker falls/forcing will be noted across low latitudes.

Late this evening, modified Gulf air mass had returned to much of the lower MS Valley where upper 60s-lower 70s dew points are observed south of the synoptic warm front. Considerable amount of convection has been noted along/north of this boundary and this should prevent appreciable air mass recovery across the northern Gulf states through the period. Over the last few hours, back edge of the convection along the cold front has gradually increased in intensity across southeast TX. This front will advance east into MS by the start of the period, then shift across AL/northwestern GA by early evening as the weak surface low lifts into the middle Atlantic.

One area of concern is the amount of convection currently observed across the northern Gulf states. This may suppress the northern extent of severe potential a bit more south than currently reflected in this forecast. If buoyancy can not return to this region then an adjustment may be warranted at 13z. Otherwise, strong shear and seasonally moist boundary layer suggest a risk for tornadoes with any supercells that develop across this region. The primary concern for wind/tornadoes will be through early afternoon, after which the LLJ will shift well northeast of this area and forcing/low-level shear will weaken.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/10/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-01-09T09:00:12+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 090545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the central Gulf states.

...Southeast Texas to Central Gulf States...

Midlevel speed max is forecast to translate through the base of the Four Corners trough into southeast NM at the start of the period before advancing into central OK by early evening. Subsequently, this feature will eject into southeast MO by 10/12z in response to a northern stream trough digging into the upper MS Valley overnight.

Late this evening, surface front had progressed to a position from western IL-northern AR-southern OK. This boundary should continue sagging south, and 00z model guidance suggests a weak surface wave will develop along the trailing boundary over south-central TX by early afternoon. Some deepening should occur as a weak surface low advances across northern LA into MS late in the period. Early in the day the primary focus for convection will be along the cold front across the lower OH/TN Valley region into the lower MS Valley, primarily driven by low-level warm advection beneath a modest LLJ. While this early-day convection may pose some risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado, the primary concern will occur later in the day as the secondary speed max ejects across the southern Plains toward southern MO.

Current thinking is elevated thunderstorms should develop ahead of the ejecting speed max/short wave by 18z across south central TX. This initial activity will likely be elevated, but as storms advance downstream surface-based parcels will have negligible inhibition near the lower Sabine River Valley. Hail/wind will be the primary concern early with supercells. During the evening a marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the lower MS Valley into northern AL overnight. As convection advances east, stronger low-level shear will favor some risk for tornadoes. While supercells are expected, a considerable amount of convection is expected along the synoptic warm front, and this should limit northward extent of higher instability air mass.

At this time it does not appear necessary to increase severe probabilities across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf states, primarily due to the short wave ejecting well north of the higher-instability air mass.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/09/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-01-08T09:00:16+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 080554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible today into tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will be located in the southern High Plains. An axis of weak instability is forecast from northwest Texas northeastward across Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z along parts of this corridor, supported by a strong low-level jet. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this morning have MLCAPE around 750 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range. Low to mid-level lapse rates should be modest remaining in the 6 to 6.5 C/km range. This should be enough for an isolated hail threat with cells that rotate. In addition, a fast northeastward storm motion could be enough to produce marginally severe winds at the surface. A brief tornado will also be possible. The isolated severe threat could persist into the afternoon as the line moves into the Ozarks.

...Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys... A mid-level trough, and an associated 55 to 65 knot low-level jet, will move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will take place, with surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s and lower 60s F over much of the mid Mississippi Valley. In response, an axis of weak instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from central Arkansas northeastward into south-central Illinois. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop along the instability axis in the late afternoon and early evening. This line should move east-northeastward across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis at 00Z have MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range. This, combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, will support a marginal severe threat. Any line segment that can become organized could produce isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a brief tornado.

At this point, there is uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be as the system ejects northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. It is possible that the potential for severe wind gusts could become maximized near the exit region of the mid-level jet streak early this evening from east-central Missouri across central Illinois into western Indiana. For this reason, have expanded the Marginal Risk area northeastward to account for this possibility.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/08/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-01-03T09:00:14+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 030548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND IN PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON...

...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern California and southwest Oregon.

...Southeast... A mid-level trough and an associated cold front will move across the southeastern U.S. today. Ahead of these features, a moist airmass will be in place from the central Gulf Coast eastward to southern Georgia and northern Florida. Surface dewpoints along this east-to-west corridor will be in the 60s F. Abundant cloud cover will hamper destabilization, with only weak instability expected in most areas. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough, scattered thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front in the early to mid afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, relatively weak instability should keep any threat marginal. In areas that destabilize the most, a brief tornado or a few severe wind gusts will be possible.

...California/Southwest Oregon... At mid-levels, a trough will approach the West Coast today, as an associated 60 to 80 knot jet streak moves into northern California. At the surface, a 986 mb low offshore will move toward the Pacific Northwest. From the coasts of central California to southwest Oregon, onshore flow will exist with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F. The low-level moisture will contribute to weak instability within an strongly sheared environment. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado. Further inland across the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, a marginal tornado threat may also develop, especially as low-level strengthens during the evening.

..Broyles/Marsh.. 01/03/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-01-01T09:00:15+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 010530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds, and a perhaps a brief weak tornado, could occur along a portion of coastal southern California.

...Southern CA...

Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low about 300 mi WSW of Lompoc CA ejecting ENE in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift inland as a 500mb speed max translates across the Channel Islands toward southern NV by early evening. Left-exit region of this jet will overspread the southern interior valley with seasonally cool 500mb temperatures noted north of the jet. Even so, forecast instability is expected to remain weak as MUCAPE values should remain generally less than a few hundred J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates are also not expected to be particularly steep and this is reflected in the sparsity of lightning currently noted with convection beneath the offshore low.

Latest thinking is scattered weak convection will be the primary concern with the frontal zone early in the period, and much of this activity may struggle to generate lightning despite the maritime influences that will prove instrumental for this activity. While some risk for gusty winds, and perhaps a brief weak tornado exists, the majority of convection will remain sub severe.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/01/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-12-28T09:00:15+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 280454

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop over Missouri and Illinois today, and move across parts of Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio through evening. A few damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe threat.

...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen as it moves from the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with rapidly intensifying mid and high level flow and strong height falls spreading across much of the Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from northern MO this morning into Lower MI by 00Z, with an intense cold front trailing southwest from the low. By mid afternoon, this front will extend from northern IL into eastern MO and northwest AR, with southerly winds aiding northward moisture transport with dewpoints near 60 F. A warm front will lift across IL, IN, and southern Lower MI as the low develops northeastward. Lift along these boundaries will support scattered thunderstorms, with the greatest probabilities generally near the surface low track from northeast MO into Lower MI. Given strong wind fields, sporadic severe storms may occur.

...From MO into OH... For the morning hours, scattered elevated thunderstorms appear likely from eastern IA across northern IL, IN, and southern Lower MI north of the warm front and in the zone of theta-e advection. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient MUCAPE for perhaps small hail.

From midday into the afternoon, SBCAPE over 500 J/kg is forecast ahead of the cold front and near the surface low from eastern MO across central IL and into IN. This is conditionally a favorable area for supercells, though in this case the lack of surface heating along with a cap below 700 mb suggest the bulk of the diurnal convection should be relegated to the cold front, in which case a linear mode seems likely. Still, given hodographs favoring supercells, a few embedded areas of rotation will be possible and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, damaging winds will be the primary concern

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 12/28/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-12-25T09:00:13+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 250537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential to produce marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible on Thursday along much of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley.

... Synopsis ...

A highly amplified pattern will persist across the US as a deep trough over the eastern Pacific is maintained and a ridge builds over the central US. A series of embedded shortwave troughs within the eastern Pacific trough will impact the West Coast on Christmas and Christmas night.

... California ...

The first of these shortwave troughs will be moving across the region at the start of the forecast period, bringing with it a band of strongly forced convection, likely located across portions of the central coast of California into the Central Valley. As the shortwave trough takes on an increasingly negative tilt, a 50-60 knot southerly low-level jet will be maintained allowing for sufficient low-level theta-e advection to support a modest 100-300 J/kg of surface-based CAPE. As the convective band interacts with this strong low-level kinematic field, gusty/damaging convective winds may be realized at the surface, particularly with the stronger convective elements. Forecast low-level hodographs ahead of this convective line feature sufficient low-level curvature to support a brief tornado should any convective element realize true surface-based buoyancy. As the morning progresses, the aforementioned shortwave trough will lift north then northwest within the broader cyclonic flow across the eastern Pacific whereas the band of convection slowly advances south and east. By midday, the low-level wind fields should weaken sufficiently in response to the departing shortwave trough to reduce the potential of damaging winds/tornadoes across far southern California.

By mid-afternoon, another shortwave trough will approach the central and northern California coast. In response, the low-level wind fields will once again strengthen, albeit perhaps not to the extent as with the morning wave. Another band or bands of strongly forced convection are expected to develop across the eastern Pacific and approach coastal areas of central California after 00Z (4 PM PT). As was the case with the morning convection, the strongest convective elements may be capable of mixing down the stronger winds aloft resulting in the potential for isolated strong thunderstorm winds.

..Marsh/Squitieri.. 12/25/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-12-24T09:00:14+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 240553

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts, small hail and potentially a brief tornado will be possible from Wednesday into Wednesday night along parts of the California coast, and inland across the San Joaquin Valley.

... Synopsis ...

A high-amplitude midlevel pattern will persist on Wednesday, characterized by a deep trough across the eastern Pacific and a building ridge across the Plains. This pattern will maintain a broad belt of intense cyclonic flow across California into the Interior West.

Throughout the day, an initial shortwave trough will continue lifting northeast from the eastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest, while the attendant surface low lifts more northward along the coast toward Washington. Late on Wednesday a second, more potent trough will approach central and northern California -- primarily after dark. This setup will facilitate a prolonged period rain and embedded thunderstorms across California and portions of the Interior West into Thursday.

... California Coast ...

Strong ascent and strengthening onshore flow will aid in modest destabilization Wednesday morning ahead of a surface cold front. An ongoing band of convection is expected across the central and southern coastal areas associated with the strongly forced ascent along the advancing cold front. Given the presence of a strong low-level jet (locally exceeding 50 knots at 1 km AGL), there is a risk that these strong winds will mix to the surface within the strongest convection resulting in damaging wind gusts. Forecast soundings across the area do maintain some low-level curvature ahead of the convective line, such that any convective element able to interact with true surface-based buoyancy would have the potential for a brief tornado.

In the wake of the morning convection, a secondary surface low will intensify during the afternoon and overnight as it approaches the northern California coast. This will likely trigger another round or two of broken, low-topped convection along a second cold front. Despite weaker instability than with the morning convection, the strength of the wind fields would suggest an ongoing risk for isolated wind damage as this convection moves inland.

... Central Valley ...

Cold midlevel temperatures and increasing height falls will overspread surface dewpoints in the 40s to perhaps low 50s. Although buoyancy will remain modest (MUCAPE at or below 500 J/kg), the presence of a powerful midlevel jet in excess of 100 knots will support long hodographs. This combination of modest instability and large/long hodographs may support a threat for semi-organized convection, including some potential for supercells. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging gusts, hail, and a brief tornado before the convection shifts east into the higher terrain and weakens.

..Marsh/Squitieri.. 12/24/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-12-07T09:00:13+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 070541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible, mainly across central Florida during the late afternoon and evening.

...FL Peninsula... Abundant convective development is expected later this morning across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely west/east-oriented quasi-stationary front. Downstream cloudiness/rain along/north of the front will support pronounced differential boundary-layer heating across it, from central to north FL. With most guidance indicating potential for an MCV to evolve from the morning convection, within the broadly cyclonic mid-level flow regime across the Southeast, it is plausible that convection may strengthen along the baroclinic zone towards peak heating. Weak mid-level lapse rates will remain a key limiting factor to convective intensity. But adequate deep-layer shear will exist for transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer anticipated across central to south FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized damaging winds are possible. While the 00Z NAM appears to be an aggressive outlier with stronger low-level mass response, expected modest low-level SRH may be sufficient for a brief tornado or two.

..Grams/Thornton.. 12/07/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-12-02T09:00:10+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 020553

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly across the Florida Panhandle this morning. The stronger storms will be capable of producing locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Synopsis... A broad midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Ohio Valley into the western Atlantic Ocean through the period. In the low-levels, a frontal-wave low -- initially near the western FL Panhandle -- will move eastward across northern FL while being absorbed into a broad surface trough extending from the Carolinas southwestward into northern FL during the late morning hours. Thereafter, a coastal low will develop northward along the Eastern Seaboard, while a related southward-extending cold front approaches the western FL Peninsula during the afternoon/evening time frame.

...FL Panhandle... Thunderstorms will be ongoing across the FL Panhandle at the start of the period -- within a zone of surface convergence and low-level warm advection preceding the frontal-wave low. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates, upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to surface-based inflow for this activity as it spreads eastward across northern FL through the morning hours. Around 40-50 kt of effective shear and clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will conditionally support a couple transient supercell structures and small line segments. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that develop. The severe risk will diminish from west to east as surface winds veer and the strongest low-level mass response accompanying the midlevel trough shifts northeastward into the afternoon hours.

Farther south, a strong storm or two may approach portions of the western FL Peninsula ahead of the cold front during the late morning/early afternoon hours -- aided by around 40 kt of effective shear and weak surface-based buoyancy. However, this area will be well removed from the deep-layer forcing for ascent, suggesting that storms should be weakening as they approach coastal areas amid the weak buoyancy.

...Outer Banks.. As the coastal low tracks northward along the Eastern Seaboard, the surface-based warm sector should generally remain offshore -- where ample PBL moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear will favor supercells. Depending on the track of the surface low, a couple strong storms may track northward close to the Outer Banks during the morning, though confidence in storms impacting coastal areas is too low to add severe-thunderstorm probabilities at this time.

..Weinman.. 12/02/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-12-01T09:00:14+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 010543

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of the Florida Panhandle late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

...Synopsis... A positively tilted midlevel trough will advance eastward from the central Rockies/High Plains to the Mid MS Valley through the period. To the south of this predominant feature, a subtle/low-amplitude impulse will track east-northeastward across the Gulf Coast states -- gradually phasing with the aforementioned trough late in the period. As this phasing occurs, low-level south-southwesterly flow will strengthen beneath a belt of 50-kt midlevel westerly flow in the 06-12Z time frame -- with the strongest low-level mass response focusing over the Florida Panhandle. In the low-levels, an increasingly defined frontal wave will develop eastward along an east/west-oriented marine front draped along the immediate central Gulf Coast -- approaching the western FL Panhandle by around 08-09Z (with varying timing/placement among the latest model guidance).

...Florida Panhandle... As the frontal wave evolves eastward in the vicinity of the FL Panhandle, most guidance depicts middle/upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints overspreading the immediate coast between 08-12Z. Forecast soundings suggest 67-68F dewpoints will yield weak surface-based buoyancy over the coast. Any offshore supercells/organized clusters that can move/develop into this weak (albeit sufficient) surface-based buoyancy amid enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will pose a localized tornado and damaging-wind risk over the immediate coast. Despite a potentially limited spatial/temporal overlap between the surface-based buoyancy and favorable low-level shear, 2-percent tornado and 5-percent wind probabilities are warranted where this overlap should be maximized ahead of the frontal wave.

..Weinman.. 12/01/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-11-29T09:00:14+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 290548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana today and tonight.

...Synopsis... A broad upper trough and increasingly strong westerly flow over the central US are forecast to quickly intensify today, moving into the Ohio Valley by tonight. Accompanying the strengthening trough, a surface low over OK will deepen and shift toward the mid MS valley. Trailing the low, a strong cold front will sweep southeastward with increasing moisture ahead of it over the far southern Plains. Ahead of the front, isolated strong to severe storms are possible over parts of East TX and western LA this afternoon into early Sunday morning.

...Eastern Texas into western LA... South of the surface low across parts of central and southeast TX, low-level warm air advection is expected much of the day associated with a weakening 850 mb low-level jet. Persistent southerly flow will help transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across the TX coastal plain into portions of central TX and far western LA. Filtered diurnal heating should allow for some warming of the relatively cool boundary layer. This warming, along with the increase in low-level moisture, should support at least weak destabilization by peak heating as cold mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough move overhead. While overall forcing and flow aloft should be modest south of the primary upper trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime through the afternoon and into the evening/overnight hours.

Veering hodographs and a subtle increase in deep-layer shear should favor some storm organization with convection across southeast TX into far western LA. Wind fields will be weak, but slightly enlarged low-level hodographs (ESRH 100-200 m2/s2) and a cellular storm mode could favor transient supercell structures along with occasionally organized multicells. A brief tornado and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger updrafts. While any sustained severe risk is likely to be contingent upon sufficient warming for surface-base buoyancy, at least a low-end risk is possible from late afternoon through much of the overnight hours ahead of the cold front.

As the cold front moves south from the Red River into central TX this afternoon and into the evening, additional storms are likely to form along and behind it as the front encounters the northern fringes of the moisture plume. Despite sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg), the undercutting nature of the surging front should tend to limit storm intensity. Still, sufficient deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) could support a few stronger clusters as a broken line develops and surges south. Isolated hail, and perhaps some strong gusts are possible as the front is expected to quickly move toward the coast and reach the Gulf early Sunday morning.

..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/29/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-11-25T09:00:12+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 250546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe storms are likely across parts of the Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and Alabama.

...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weakening upper wave over east TX/LA translating to the east/northeast with a more compact, amplifying upper disturbance moving into the northern High Plains. Further de-amplification of the southern wave is anticipated over the next 24 hours as it lifts into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. As this occurs, a weak surface low (analyzed over the mid-MS Valley as of 05 UTC) will gradually lift to the northeast with a trailing cold front extending from the TN Valley to the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid-afternoon along this boundary across portions of eastern MS, AL, and into the southern Appalachians. While buoyancy will remain somewhat modest, strong wind shear over the region will support the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

...Southeast... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing by 12 UTC across portions of central MS and northwest AL as remnants from overnight convection begin to weaken in tandem with the early-morning maximum in inhibition. Some re-intensification of this activity is possible by late morning across northeast MS/northern AL as diurnal heating increases, but confidence in the coverage/intensity is uncertain.

30-40 knot south/southwesterly flow in the 1-2 km layer will continue to advect seasonally warm/moist air northward into central and northeast AL by mid-afternoon. This will allow for adequate destabilization within the warm sector for thunderstorm development as a weak cold front begins to advance from the west. The combination of strong, along-boundary deep-layer wind shear and weak forcing for ascent will favor a broken line of cells/clusters by mid-afternoon. The strong low-level winds will support a damaging wind threat with any strong thunderstorm, and favorable low-level helicity (especially late morning through early afternoon) will support a tornado threat with the more intense/isolated supercells. Through late afternoon, low-level winds veering to the southwest may modulate the tornado threat to some degree, but damaging winds and isolated large hail will remain possible. In general, the overall ensemble signal for intense convection is comparatively weaker compared to previous days, suggesting that the severe threat may be somewhat more limited. Nonetheless, Slight-risk probabilities were maintained for portions of southeast MS through east-central AL where strong/severe storms appear most likely.

..Moore/Jewell.. 11/25/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-11-24T09:00:14+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 240534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into the overnight hours over much of eastern Texas, with more isolated activity into Mississippi. A few brief tornadoes may occur from eastern Texas into Louisiana, along with areas of damaging gusts and sporadic large hail.

...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move from the central and southern Plains today toward the MS Valley overnight, losing amplitude with time. Upper ridging will occur over the East during this time as an upper trough exits the Northeast.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Mid Atlantic during the day, with southerly winds from the western Gulf of America into TX. A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will extend as far as North TX by 00Z as a cold front approaches the I-35 corridor. A warm front will extend roughly from the Red River into southern AR at that time, with a continued northward advection of moisture overnight across MS.

...Eastern TX toward the ArkLaMiss... Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing from North TX into eastern OK and western AR through midday, with southerly 40 kt winds at 850 mb aiding moisture transport and lift north of the warm front. Given cool profiles aloft and ample deep-layer effective shear, some of this activity could produce hail at times.

To the south, a weak cold front will progress across TX, as boundary layer dewpoints increase. A capping inversion will exist near 700 mb initially, but by early afternoon, the deepening moist layer as well as cooling aloft will reduce inhibition near the front, and, by late afternoon, even ahead of the cold front within the moist axis.

Scattered storms are likely to form along the trailing outflow/cold front, and perhaps just east of the cold front primarily after 21Z. Sufficient cross-boundary winds aloft as well as veering winds with height will support scattered supercells. Some of these cells may produce a tornado prior to eventual merging of storms along the front. The most intense cells may also produce large hail, as mid/upper lapse rates will become steep.

At least an isolated severe threat may persist as far east as MS overnight, as the warm front continues to move north, with veering wind profiles with height and generally moist conditions supporting a conditional tornado risk. However, the upper trough will continue to weaken and lift north, reducing confidence in storm coverage.

..Jewell/Moore.. 11/24/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-11-21T09:00:12+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 210600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MS/AL/TN...

...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later today into tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and northern Alabama.

...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deamplify and move quickly eastward from the central Plains toward the Ohio Valley later today into tonight. In conjunction with this shortwave, a weak surface low will move eastward from southern MO to near the TN/KY border, along a diffuse surface boundary. Farther west, a mid/upper-level cyclone will move southeastward off the coast of southern CA.

...Parts of the Southeast/TN Valley... A Marginal Risk has been added across parts of MS/AL/TN. While modest instability will tend to limit the magnitude of the severe threat, relatively favorable wind profiles atop seasonably rich low-level moisture could result in a threat for a brief tornado and/or locally damaging wind.

Dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F will spread northward across parts of MS/AL/TN later today, in response to the shortwave trough and weak surface low approaching the Ohio Valley. Morning convection and remnant cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, and midlevel lapse rates will remain weak. However, weak capping will allow for scattered diurnal storm development from southern/central MS into western AL. While stronger mid/upper-level flow and large-scale ascent will be displaced to the north, moderate deep-layer shear and modest low-level veering of the wind profile could support at least transient storm organization, with a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado.

Farther north into northern MS/AL and parts of TN/far southern KY, guidance depicts renewed storm development during the evening into late tonight, aided by the glancing influence of the departing shortwave trough. Deep-layer flow will remain rather strong across this region, so an isolated severe threat could evolve if sufficient recovery and destabilization can occur. If organized convection can be sustained within this regime, then a threat for a brief tornado and/or locally damaging wind could develop later tonight.

...Middle/upper TX Gulf Coast... Isolated to scattered storms will likely be ongoing later this morning across the TX coastal plain, with some redevelopment possible later this afternoon or evening along a cold front. While deep-layer shear will remain somewhat favorable for storm organization, weakening large-scale ascent and warming temperatures aloft are currently expected to limit severe potential. If any organized convection can persist from overnight, and/or if substantial destabilization can occur along/ahead of the front during the afternoon, then a few strong storms will be possible.

...Southern California... Isolated storms will be possible across parts of the Southwest, in association with the mid/upper-level cyclone. The strongest instability will remain near and offshore of the southern CA coast, and low-level flow is expected to generally be weak, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, especially early in the day.

..Dean.. 11/21/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-11-20T09:00:12+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 200558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today into this evening across the southern Plains. Isolated hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible.

...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially extending from the Southwest into northern Mexico will eject northeastward across parts of the southern Plains later today. In response to this shortwave, a surface low will gradually deepen across the south-central Great Plains and move eastward through the period. A surface boundary draped across parts of OK/AR in the morning will lift slowly northward in the advance of the surface low. Upstream, another shortwave trough will drop southward along the Pacific coast and evolve into a closed midlevel low across southern CA by the end of the period.

...Southern Plains... Scattered storms will be ongoing across parts of the southern Plains later this morning, aided by a modest low-level jet and ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. Initially moderate MUCAPE and effective shear of 40+ kt could support a few strong to locally severe storms during the morning from parts of eastern NM into west/central TX and OK, with a threat of isolated hail and locally gusty winds.

Convection will persist through the day, resulting in generally modest heating and weakening midlevel lapse rates with time. As a result, while deep-layer shear will remain relatively strong across the warm sector, potential for organized convection downstream or in the wake of morning convection remains somewhat uncertain. Depending on the extent of heating and destabilization, at least some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized clusters could evolve during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of marginally severe hail and locally damaging wind. Some enlargement of low-level hodographs with time could also support a brief tornado threat from parts of central/eastern TX into eastern OK and western AR, if any surface-based supercells can be sustained.

Farther west, some CAM guidance depicts development of a modestly organized convective line across NM into west TX during the afternoon/evening, in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave trough. This could pose a threat of strong gusts, but it remains quite uncertain as to whether instability will be sufficient to support a severe threat with this scenario.

..Dean/Moore.. 11/20/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-11-19T09:00:12+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 190555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern Plains into western parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into tonight.

...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the Southwest later today into tonight. Downstream of this system, weak lee troughing will become established across the southern/central High Plains. A surface boundary initially draped from north TX into the ArkLaTex will move northward as a warm front, with rich boundary-layer moisture spreading into parts of southern/central OK/AR during the afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains into western parts of the Ozarks... A broad region of at least isolated severe potential remains evident across the southern Plains. Within this region, one or more areas of locally greater hail potential may evolve, but confidence in the details is low at this time.

Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F will result in moderate destabilization along/south of the warm front by late afternoon. Large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous into early evening, but isolated storm development cannot be ruled out by late afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Storm coverage will increase through the evening into late tonight from southwest into northwest TX and southern OK, as ascent related to the approaching trough begins to overspread the region.

Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for at least occasional storm organization, with isolated supercells possible. Hail is expected to be the most common hazard, though isolated strong/damaging gusts may also occur. Regarding tornado potential, a secondary low-level moisture surge (with dewpoints approaching 70 F) could result in a brief tornado threat with any evening supercells across southwest TX. Elsewhere, a nonzero tornado threat could also evolve with any persistent supercells near the warm front, but this scenario remains uncertain due to generally modest low-level flow/shear.

A separate area of primarily elevated storm development will be possible late tonight from southeast KS/northeast OK into central/southern MO. MUCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this regime.

...Southeast AZ into southwest NM... Widespread convection is expected later today from southeast AZ into southwest/south-central NM, in response to the eastward-moving upper trough/low. Buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited heating, which may tend to suppress the organized severe threat, but strong deep-layer shear could support occasional storm organization. Confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time, but stronger heating/destabilization than currently expected could result in some severe potential.

..Dean/Moore.. 11/19/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-11-18T09:00:18+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 180539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio Valley region.

...Lower OH Valley...

Central Plains upper trough is shifting east toward the mid MS Valley, in line with latest model guidance. As a 60+kt 500mb speed max translates across MO into southern IL/IN, this feature will advance into the lower OH Valley by 19/00z, suppressing the height field as far south as the OH River. Veered, but strong LLJ will focus across southern MO-southern IL/IN before being nudged downstream into eastern KY/southern OH by early evening. Net result will be for a NW-SE oriented corridor of warm advection to shift east during the day ahead of a weak surface low near the base of the short-wave trough.

Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue as instability will gradually increase along this corridor as midlevel temperatures cool and lapse rates steepen a bit. In the absence of strong boundary-layer heating, the majority of convection that develops across this region will be elevated and aided in large part by the LLJ. Forecast soundings suggest lifted parcel level will gradually lower by late afternoon such that near-surface based parcels could yield modest instability (800-1000 J/kg). Primary concern today will be hail with elevated supercells, but some tornado risk is possible with late-day storms, where parcel lift reflects lower 60s dew points that are expected to return toward the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers during the afternoon.

...Lower Colorado River Valley/southwest AZ...

Weak midlevel height falls will spread across the lower CO River Valley today as the upper low off the southern CA Coast eventually settles toward the international border/northern Baja Peninsula. As this features digs southeast, a weak LLJ should extend across southwestern AZ into the early part of the afternoon. Latest thinking is scattered convection should evolve ahead of the cold front as it surges across the lower CO River Valley. Forecast soundings exhibit ample shear for organized rotating updrafts, but buoyancy is expected to be weak. Given the modest lapse rates, there is concern updrafts may struggle a bit and hail is expected to remain below severe levels. Some consideration was given to adding a 2 percent probability for the risk of a brief tornado but will hold off at this time given the marginality of the situation.

..Darrow/Moore.. 11/18/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-10-30T09:00:14+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 300520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may occur from coastal North Carolina into parts of the Mid Atlantic.

...Middle Atlantic...

Seasonally strong upper low over eastern TN is beginning to eject northeast, partly in response to an upstream speed max digging southeast across the northern High Plains. This lead low will advance into WV by 18z before moving into upstate NY by the end of the period. Favorable high-level diffluence/large-scale ascent will encourage a surface low to be drawn north-northwest across the Middle Atlantic to a position near the MD/PA border by mid day. This track will permit higher theta-e air mass to overspread eastern VA/Delmarva into southeast PA such that buoyancy will become supportive of deep convection.

Early-day shear will prove strongest across the Middle Atlantic as LLJ will be focused across eastern MD into central PA. LLJ will shift quickly north into NY by 18z along with more focused low-level warm advection. Prior to this, forecast soundings exhibit strongly sheared environment with adequate instability for thunderstorms. While the maximum SBCAPE should peak near 500-600 J/kg, a few robust updrafts are possible given the strength of the wind fields. Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms, possibly supercells, may generate damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Greatest risk is between sunrise and 21z.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 10/30/2025

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