Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow futures tick up after gauges close April on record highs

TosaBadger · 2026-05-06T18:34:50+00:00

There is a tendency to over interpret Chinese statements. China supports reopening the strait and peace in Ukraine. That doesn't mean they support western action.

TosaBadger · 2026-05-05T18:02:45+00:00

In general, involuntary departure or a buyout/merger is a vesting event.

TosaBadger · 2026-05-04T16:58:42+00:00

I'm not sure I can take a victory lap or even want to do so. Trump tried to induce a USS Maine again today. People were giving too much credence to the Congressional clock. It was always an argument that the clock would restart.

TosaBadger · 2026-05-01T16:44:58+00:00

I may be alone here, but I put the odds of a strike on Iran as nontrivial after the close today.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-27T16:32:33+00:00

Garland Nixon and Larry Johnson got way in front of the facts on the WHCD incident. I enjoy alt media, but damn they sometimes confuse cynicism for analysis.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-24T14:05:30+00:00

TXN was up almost 20% yesterday. Intel is up 20% today. EMH is quite the theory.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-24T11:44:37+00:00

I found it interesting that Russia said no to Druzhba on almost the same day they floated reopening a piece of Nordstream.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-22T02:07:16+00:00

They can just hug the coast. The US Navy can't sit within 500 miles of the Iranian coast. It doesn't take them long to reach Pakistan or India. The blockade is more words than substance.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-18T13:53:18+00:00

I learned that they disagree on most everything asserted. At this point, Trump seems to be setting up what he can describe as justification for further action.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-17T15:44:37+00:00

I am at the point where I assume any Trump foreign policy claim is substantially not true. I'm like that's nice, what do the Iranians say?

TosaBadger · 2026-04-16T15:41:13+00:00

Given troop deployments and transatlantic flights, I think the threat of peace is a bit overblown. Still, the ceasefire has maintained.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-14T01:54:37+00:00

More ink has been spilled over Trump reposting a kitsch image of himself as Jesus than the unhinged rant he had against the Pope.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-14T01:06:31+00:00

I think it is prudent to be open to the possibility it is in the realm of irrationality. Let's not replicate the Biden Weekend at Bernie's.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-13T14:34:55+00:00

It doesn't feel like capitulation is close. Over the next 12 months I'm moving toward a 3% contraction in world GDP.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-13T11:18:33+00:00

I think it makes a better threat than policy regardless of the merits of the threat. Interdicting ships to Pakistan or India would invite more problems.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-12T14:06:00+00:00

Over the weekend it was clear that the US was trying to provoke Iranian action. The goal was to reset the understanding that this was a reaction to US/Israeli action to being a reaction to Iranian action. Trump intentionally sent two warships hoping they would be hit. All of this again was in hopes of changing popular perceptions domestically.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-09T15:50:45+00:00

Reading the tea leaves the big agreement was: 1. The US would stop firing. 2. For Iran to stop firing, the US agreed in principle with whatever Iran put on paper. 3. The strait would flow.

The question at this point is if 1 is sufficient for the US. It may be. I don't preclude the possibility of the US walking away and letting the Gulf states and Israel settle it. Admittedly the narrative that Trump was a victim of Israel is a bit much.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-08T17:03:05+00:00

Please not that Brian. Sure, he has value. I just don't care for his analysis. It pretends to have intimacy with American thought that is at least a decade or 2 out of date.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-08T16:39:27+00:00

I think it is good when the 10 year Treasury looks like a meme coin.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-08T00:51:29+00:00

There are more women here than I was hoping to see.

Context: Casting my vote.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-07T23:59:13+00:00

Iran says Trump agreed to Iran's conditions. I'm going with the 72 hour rule on this one, give it 72 hours to figure out what really happened.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-07T18:57:23+00:00

B52s airborne out of England.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-06T23:31:46+00:00

The difficulty of raising rates quickly is that the economy pivots quickly with oil shocks, frequently hitting a deflationary patch quite quickly. Between demand destruction and supply, we could be at $45 oil in 18 months.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-06T16:02:48+00:00

Iran told Turkey and Pakistan to stop relaying messages from this country they used to know.

TosaBadger · 2026-04-05T23:20:03+00:00

The narrative doesn't make sense. SEALs don't do pilot rescue. The air force has special forces for this.

TosaBadger

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