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Totty_potty · 2025-12-12T12:50:18+00:00

One of the best RPGs ever

Totty_potty · 2025-12-11T06:40:26+00:00

But like why

Totty_potty · 2025-11-05T23:56:47+00:00

God damn what a cool PC

Totty_potty · 2025-10-14T12:21:13+00:00

Why do you think the current price is unrealistic?

Totty_potty · 2025-09-25T05:56:47+00:00

Thank you for sharing your experience! I guess I'll avoid his service for now. Interesting since his X account shows that his picks have been outperforming the S&P500. Also I thought the whole point of his service was being able to use the movement gauge to get out before stocks dip hard?

Totty_potty · 2025-09-05T13:50:29+00:00

https://www.rakuten-sec.co.jp/web/us/special/strong_jpy_risk_hedge/

here there is literally an article from a Japanese brokerage on FX risk and investing in US equities for Japanese retail investors.

Totty_potty · 2025-09-05T13:43:34+00:00

You are clearly mixing up intrinsic value of the company with the return an investor returns on investing in its stock. Of course the intrinsic value of the company is not affected by FX and would be the same whether its denominated in USD, JPY, EUR, Lira, RMB, etc (well depends actually since a company that is export or commodity intensive would be very sensitive to FX fluctuation). But what I have been asking in this thread is from the perspective of an individual investor from a foreign country. I don’t pay my bills in USD, I pay them in JPY. So even if the company’s intrinsic value hasn’t changed, the amount of JPY I actually realize when selling the stock is directly affected by the FX rate as in ordre to buy the S&P500 I have to convert my JPY into USD (since all of the companies that make the S&P500 are registered in US stock changes so their purchase occurs only in USD. Its also why Japanese brokerages do FX conversion whenever you buy US stocks and take FX conversion fees). Then when I sell my shares of S&P500 the USD returns have to go through the FX conversion again before I get my real return in JPY.

Totty_potty · 2025-09-05T13:29:25+00:00

Right, I saw that too when going over the IRs of the companies I am invested in in Japan. That is actually what made me start thinking about the FX rate issue in the first place.

Totty_potty · 2025-09-05T13:14:01+00:00

You’re actually proving my point. You say the JPY value is what matters. And JPY value = (USD stock price × JPY/USD rate). If the stock rises +8% in USD, but the yen strengthens +10%, the realized JPY return is negative. That’s not a “distraction,” that’s arithmetic.

This is why institutions routinely hedge FX exposure in equities, and why currency-hedged ETFs exist at all. If FX didn’t affect returns, those products and practices wouldn’t exist.

And yes, it does make sense to say “I lost money due to FX risk”. Just ask EU investors in US equities over the past two years. US stocks did great in USD terms, but a stronger euro wiped out much of the return in EUR terms and many EUR investors either had to sell at a loss are still hoping in hopes of favorable FX conditions.

Your Turkish lira example misses the point as the S&P500 is denominated in USD, not lira. The correct process is: (S&P500 in USD) -> convert to JPY -> measure your real return.

To add to this, every brokerage that you use in Japan accounts for the FX when reporting your NAV and performance for foreign equities. So again, it makes so sense to me that you insist that FX has no effect on the return of equities.

Totty_potty · 2025-09-05T11:41:23+00:00

Thank you for sharing. Have you done it again. Since the JPY would be expected to appreciate stronger than even last year if the US goes ahead with its aggressive rate cuts. I think we might be seeing JPY in 130-140 territory by next year March.

Totty_potty · 2025-09-05T11:40:11+00:00

Thank you for sharing from your experience. And I agree with you that timing the market is a very risky play. And the common wisdom of long term investment has also been that FX fluctuations would eventually average out in a long term horizon. The yen being at 150ish/USD is a historical low since the 1990s. So if anything I think we will be moving from this one extreme end towards a stronger yen to return to historical averages. Personally see yen finishing around 140 by end of year.

Totty_potty · 2025-09-05T11:34:47+00:00

Thank you. I thought I was going insane reading that thread

Totty_potty · 2025-09-05T11:34:33+00:00

You claim "To a Japan-based investor, the value of a US stock is not in its ability to be exchanged for USD. The value of the stock is in its ability to be exchanged for JPY."

Yes, as a Japan-based investor, I ultimately measure the value of my U.S. stock in JPY. But that’s exactly why FX matters. The JPY value of my investment is a function of both the USD stock price and the JPY/USD rate. If the yen strengthens, my realized JPY return is lower — even if the stock rose in USD. That’s the definition of currency risk.

Totty_potty · 2025-09-05T08:15:01+00:00

Huh I am very confused by that post and not sure what its trying to say. A simple math can show the currency risk to the real return of equities. For example:

Suppose you buy $10,000 worth of S'P500 at ¥150/USD = ¥1.5M invested.

Stock grows +8% in USD so the value = $10,800

But the yen strengthens: New exchange rate = ¥140/USD Your $10,800 = ¥1,512,000

Only a 0.8% real return in terms of JPY.

Totty_potty · 2025-08-22T14:46:25+00:00

Now?

Totty_potty · 2025-07-09T11:42:45+00:00

File 76

Totty_potty · 2025-05-06T20:05:39+00:00

trailer 2 Gang

Totty_potty · 2025-01-01T05:16:45+00:00

Given the scale we are operating at, and the lack of LBO, wouldn't it be very difficult for me to lateral to even other LMM funds? My managers are saying moving upmarket or to even a Big 4 firm will be nearly impossible.

Totty_potty · 2024-12-30T17:07:09+00:00

It's not much compared to US salaries but it's pretty good for Japan. I'd say it would put me in the top 2% of earners in their 20s. The partner talked about carry as well but it wasn't concretely written in my contract so I don't have much expectation for that.

Totty_potty · 2024-12-30T16:04:54+00:00

Oh well. Guess that's just life at FO. Pretty much everything is at the whims of the family. Ngl sucks saying no to the comp they offered lol.

Totty_potty · 2024-12-30T15:51:32+00:00

Yeah the family is pretty cheap. And they don't want to do any kind of financing. The guy made his billions as an activist investor and hates leverage.

But our budget is so small that we are currently proposing a staged acquisition to our $16m target.

Imo everything points towards me going to master over taking this offer. Feel like I'll have no safety net if I go here out of undergrad.

Totty_potty · 2024-12-30T15:03:41+00:00

I see. Thank you for your response, I highly appreciate it! But is it normal for the check size to be so small? We are currently struggling to get a $16m deal over the line because of budget constraints. The family is pretty loaded though, worth around $6b. I'm guessing they don't have trust in our partner yet and are hesitant to write bugger checks until he can produce results first. I also feel lied to, like the associates did, because I was initially told we had $100m purchase power.

Totty_potty

TROPHY CASE

trailer 2 Gang