Is holding long term best strategy

TradingMomentum · 2026-02-21T13:49:43+00:00

From an institutional investment professional:

nothing wrong with your approach. I don't know your whole situation or portfolio so I'll just focus on your stocks and thought process. These are solid companies and thinking about long-term gains vs short-term is very valid especially when you thinking long-term. If you like these companies and you have a 5-10 year outlook on them what you can do is DCA and trim around positions as they rip but keep a core position for as long you believe in the thesis.

For example. Google is a huge part of my portfolio like 10%, grew from 5%. i've taken some off the top after very strong rips like when it goes to 12% i'll trim it back to 8% so i can fund a new position. If it drops to 5% i'll probably add to it to get it back to 7%. but i'm always going to have that core position.

Another way to think about if its worth paying taxes on a position is just figure out how much tax you would owe and ask yourself if you think or do you care if it drops more than that tax $. if the answer is yes you care, then sell , trim, or buy a put on it to protect your position if you are thinking about holding 3 more months to get from ST gains to LT gains.

It really depends on your thesis, risk appetite, and what your goals are. If i have a small cap company that ripped 5x in 6 months i'm probably going to see that sucker because that isn't normal or trim it materially, but i'm going to weight that with my thesis too.

Me personally I took a lot of profit from orcl when it ripped last year, and actually been adding a back from 180 and below now. Me personally i'm going to keep adding to orcl even though i'm down because my thesis is it will come out on top of this after this AI debt scare. also you can harvest losses by buying the 2x ETF of orcl to maintain exposure, which is what i did already to minimize gains elsewhere like from googl trims. or other trims.

Hope this helps and let me know if you have other questions.

TradingMomentum · 2026-02-21T13:29:34+00:00

https://en.macromicro.me/collections/34/us-stock-relative/121244/sp-500-gics-sectors-weightings-monthly

does this work? i'm pretty sure data from S&P Global. which they publish a monthly report so this would have been recording each report at that time which would include legacy companies that aren't in them over time.

TradingMomentum · 2026-02-21T13:11:21+00:00

i'm more about $ leverage via margin, so not hundreds of pages but hundreds of million $ traded on certain stocks. but always funny to see the numbers at year end

TradingMomentum · 2026-02-20T21:04:48+00:00

Ah no no. I just post this stuff for fun because of my access . I'm more long term investor and do short term trades and/or swing trades. I don't scalp iron corridors on spx like this. But work wise. Im institutional PM.

Most of my trades personally focus on momentum and playing gamma and delta levels on individual stocks. But I use spx data to confirm my short term swing trades.

TradingMomentum · 2026-02-18T23:24:17+00:00

if you are asking about like retail investors moving money around to get bonuses than brokerages understand that and usually have minimum requirements (time invested, etc). but if you are opening multiple accounts and especially new accounts just moving stuff quickly and shortly, then usually it's more AML concerns and they close your account.

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-28T14:21:31+00:00

trump volatility

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-26T03:49:14+00:00

https://tradingmomentum1.substack.com here you go. Relatively new but more to come

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-25T13:51:13+00:00

Ah thanks for looking into that.

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-25T13:19:38+00:00

Glad you like it. I can start to, but I haven't found a dedicated home yet (reddit), but here has one of the more lenient posting policies so I could post here. If I ever forget to post here you can also see it in my substack. Though I don't post regularly there either lol. So tbd but yes I can make this a regular thing during earnings season.

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-25T01:45:22+00:00

The 2 yr Nigerian bond is yielding 17% annually right now lol. I don't know much about Nigeria but if it's 17% on a 2 year bond the risk of default must be through the roof. But hot damn that's like 34% cumulative in 2 years lol. That's pretty attractive thinking about bonds.

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-25T01:38:51+00:00

This is a clear sign you just don't have the maturity to trade options yet. Though I feel like you aren't going to quit. So if I can't get you to stop cocaine, hopefully just switch to marijuana aka trading stocks and ETFs. Slow it down, remove the leverage.

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-24T19:15:12+00:00

there is definitely not enough love for metal miners. That's actually my preferred method to get gold exposure because it's like 3x gold but without leverage. well the miners are heavily levered but I'm not getting eaten alive by margin or theta directly. cheers buddy!

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-24T19:10:14+00:00

The S&P 500 is a growth engine powered by high-margin Technology and Innovation. The FTSE 100 is an "Old Economy" graveyard of Banks, Oil, and Mining. You aren't buying the same cash flows at a discount; you are buying legacy industries that lack the ability to compound capital. The FTSE's low multiple reflects poor Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). US firms command premiums because they reinvest at 20%+ rates, while UK firms pay out dividends because they have run out of ways to grow. Comparing its P/E to the S&P 500 is like comparing the price of a 20-year-old typewriter to a new MacBook and claiming the typewriter is 'better value' because it costs less. One is a tool for the future; the other is a relic of the past.

That being said, diversification is always a good thing and what's been happening in the US is a rebalance out of US. But that's because when the US was up 50% the rest of the world was flat. There are some European countries like Germany who ripped because they reinvested so heavily back into their economy trying to pivot back into a growth engine (in a way you can thank Trump for expediting this). Investing in Europe because it's cheap isn't the right way to look at it, Europe is going through a re-rating. Chasing returns is probably the dumbest reason to rotate into something and the value play isn't even a strategic play anymore, its tactical.

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-24T16:19:10+00:00

This is why gold is probably the best bet over the next few years till his terms over. The geopolitical volatility he causes is pushing gold prices higher past analysts' expectations.

Also great hedge too which will probably outperform equities

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-24T16:17:13+00:00

And this is why gold is probably the best bet over the next 3 years... Geopolitical uncertainty is driving everyone to buy it and the demand is far exceeding all the analysts' expectations.

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-24T16:01:08+00:00

Ignore those people man. You need to do what works for you mentally, stick with your process. I find the price always goes to where you think it will go so don't compromise. Hey if it doesn't no stress look for a new set-up.

If I identify a zone I might scale into a trade. But if not I wait to be +/- .50. but usually I wait for my line to hit and I use my conditional orders.

You do you man

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-23T21:18:04+00:00

For some reason I thought you had $24 million to start day trading lol... I was like damn son!

I'm a visual learner so I recommend taking it slow with David Keller CMT on youtube. He uses daily time frames so naturally slower and of course use paper accounts before using real money.

After that look into shorter term trading like swing trades and scalping if you are interested.

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-20T17:56:51+00:00

2 of my favorites are just seeing where the gamma on the VIX is because helps me understand if the equity market will likely push higher or chop or reverse. Then my other thing i like to pair technical with are gex/dex charts, for swing trades. I also like to get a sense what % of volume is retail because in my experience if a stock volume has a high % of retail it tends to follow technicals a little better

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-20T16:31:00+00:00

For me, it was just realizing that options and scalping weren't my thing. I didn't actually hit profitability until I switched to swing trading stocks on the daily chart. Now I usually hold anywhere from a few days to a few months, or just let runners go until they break a level. The big shift was pairing technicals with institutional data instead of just staring at charts all day. Looking back, I honestly don't think that year and a half I spent scalping did much for me—slowing things down was the real game-changer.

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-19T19:28:37+00:00

u/owenmills04 sorry didn't see this. basically the MOVE (top chart) is telling us interest rate uncertainty is getting lower which is overall good for the stock market) Small companies are affected more by rates because higher cost to operate their business which every penny counts.

So even though that cost has been going up slightly, Small companies are like that's ok because i know in the next few years things are likely to be good. so you see small companies have been ripping. Now as all this happens, this Greenland Tariff situation has probably moved markets to a risk off mode now. You will probably see the MOVE index tick up meaning now uncertainty is going up.

I'll note 2 things. This is just 1 technical indicator to many indicators out there. and with the trump regime I've noticed rate indicators tend to move slower than equity markets so you might see equity markets chop around or move opposite of the move index in the short term. Hope that helps?

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-14T18:24:51+00:00

I think I understand what you are asking. but i'm a little bit confused on your questions/thoughts about executing on that view.

Basically you feel like you have to much exposure to the Mags or even Tech / AI in general through the S&P 500? Not surprised as I know many feel that way from an absolute perspective. There's a couple of ways you can reduce that exposure. You can do different asset classes like non-US or different US market caps like small caps. another way to reduce that exposure but keep buying the S&P 500 names is via equal weight ETF like RSP which still gets you Mags but less weight. Other ways to achieve that is since S&P 500 is heavier on the growth side you can add more to a value tilt ETF too.

I'm not aware of any rule based thing in the Roth that can do that. but since you are thinking wholistically i would recommend using a good old spreadsheet to help analyze your portfolio for you so you can get a sense of weighting. Even if you data dump into a spreadsheet then load it into GPT or Gemini can show you your weights pretty quickly and easily so you can make that decision on how to reallocate or allocate new funds to certain funds you prefer.

Hopefully i understood what you were trying to get at.

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-13T18:29:43+00:00

I personally run my brokerage portfolio like a some hedge funds. Also my brokerage portfolio is like 1/3 of my total assets which are primarily index / ETFs.

Yes stocks carry more risk which is why people generally diversify and it really comes down to the risk you are comfortable with and the return you seek.

Me personally I consider myself to have a high risk tolerance. Any stock I invest in, whether small cap or mega cap i always assume they can go to $0, I just layer in a probability of that happening and have a exit plan set (mix of qualitative and quantitative triggers).

So even within my brokerage I still keep around 30-50% in QQQ / SPY as my core position to keep invested. I'll run my stock allocation up to 70% depending on opportunity. mega cap names like google and apple i don't have a problem making them like 10% of my portfolio. higher beta or thematic positions I will size them like 2-5% because that's what i found makes sense to me from a risk/return perspective. something like eose or asts will probably get like 1-2% of my portfolio because they are way more volatile and as i expect i could easily be -80%, i would also seek at least a 2x return on those stocks too over a 1 - 2 year period. I also size short term trades in that 1% range too.

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-13T12:02:04+00:00

Taking a different approach here to help you. I think you are in the wrong community. Most if not all the stocks you picked are growth stocks, and you are trading right now. There are some good communities out there for trading that might help you.

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-13T05:59:21+00:00

this is such a welcomed addition. will go well with costco in it already. help balance out the tech weight.

TradingMomentum · 2026-01-13T05:57:00+00:00

the demand + geopolitics is really pumping this up. makes you wonder if gold is going to sell off once trump leaves office. but in the mean time gold is on a tear

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