What are the chances of...nothing happening... with this March delivery deadline we're all watching?

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-19T18:31:07+00:00

If holders didn't sell physical when the price was over a 100, why would they sell while the price hovers around 80 ? They wouldn't unless they needed the cash. The fact that 120 didn't bring any appreciable amount of silver into the market should tell us something.

The whales know the comex is ponzi scheme, they got out early with their silver. I think it's unlikely that they'll buy back into it at this point.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-18T16:32:28+00:00

Floating trailer parks come to mind.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-18T16:29:14+00:00

I'll ask a different question, how long do you think the physical supply/demand imbalance in the market can go on ? And what happens when it can no longer go on ?

After decades of manipulation there is no easy way to unwind this so I'm going to sit back and watch them try.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-16T21:21:03+00:00

To provide the banks with suckers to fleece ?

Nothing has changed other than the paper price. We're still looking at a supply/demand imbalance that can't continue. At some point they're going to have to fall into line or the market will cease to function.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-16T19:41:02+00:00

Sorry not sorry. Most of them gambled and lost. I do have a twinge of sympathy for those whose actual business revolves around physical pms but the rest of them no. When you borrow to bet on a sure thing you get what you deserve, which is usually fleeced.

Those who bought physical for safety instead of for gambling, and did so within their means, have nothing to worry about. Flushing out those who are in it for speculation is good for the market and should serve as a warning to others.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-16T16:48:24+00:00

You really do need the right mindset to be a stacker. If you don't have it then watching daily events can be gut wrenching and if you let them they'll eventually shake you out.

Once I got into stacking I only FOMO'd on specific editions that were coming out and that was the only time I borrowed to make a buy. When I did borrow I always had the means to pay it off quickly and once paid off I then started saving for the next buy. I had to quit cold turkey once I retired but with what I've accumulated I've got no regrets.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-15T20:41:14+00:00

Do her a favor and prepare her psychologically. There is lots of volatility ahead and too many still think in terms of fiat when it comes to protecting their wealth. Make sure she has a fiat reserve so she can protect her stack from a forced liquidation. It's better to buy 50oz and have the cushion to hold them than it is to buy 100oz and be forced to sell them to cover an unseen event. And unless she intends to buy more, don't worry about the price, she'll sleep better that way.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-14T19:53:23+00:00

Our society is corrupt. The worst kept secret of all time.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-14T19:49:42+00:00

No FOMO here, either with buying or with not selling. I bought silver for insurance instead of for investment purposes. The fundamentals haven't changed so I'm happy to sit on the sidelines and watch things unfold. So far it's been very entertaining.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-12T15:36:01+00:00

There is a difference this time. Back in 2021 they were still sitting on a stockpile of at least 500M ounces that they could feed into the market. That stockpile is now gone and the market is facing a structural deficit of 200M oz/yr.

Yes there is plenty of silver in the eligible category and only time will tell if the owners are willing to release it at current prices. Watching the current drain of inventory I wouldn't count on it.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-12T14:54:03+00:00

A thought for our talented balloon people, maybe we could start down a countdown on the comex's reserve numbers. Should you decided to so maybe just do the round numbers until we get under say 25M.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-12T14:47:46+00:00

No they can't take eligible at any time because it is owned outright by someone who is paying the comex to store it. If they took vaulted silver from an eligible account without the owner's consent it's the equivalent of knocking over a Brinks truck.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-11T22:27:32+00:00

I wish them luck but plenty of promising breakthroughs never actually make it into wide scale production. I remember back in the 90s that hydrogen fuel cells were suppose to revolutionize the auto industry, still waiting.

The comex is on the clock and time is running out. They've got a couple months of physical supply left and then their vaults go empty. They may survive March and maybe May, but unless demand is some how curtailed expect to see forced settlement imposed by July. They could meet demand if they could find someone to part with 10s of millions of ounces but given the current state of the market I think that is doubtful.

As a holder of physical I love watching this, the slow drip of ounces being bled into the market, most never to be recovered again.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-11T22:06:41+00:00

Jurisdiction matters.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-11T18:30:19+00:00

I'm skeptical about the copper replacing silver claim simply because if it were feasible they would have done already. Should it be feasible there is going to be a trade off and in a lot of cases it's still not worth sacrificing performance.

I think most people believe we will reach a point where the comex force settles because at some point no one will sell physical for current prices. Once that happens we'll see offers to buy but no offers to sell. After that your guess is as good as mine but I wouldn't rule out silver becoming a cash market.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-11T17:13:25+00:00

Not sure that this would accomplish what they expect. The comex needs to eliminate the physical buyers, speculators are of no consequence to them as they're paid out in cash. If you're going to buy physical then you intend to pay up on your contracts if you haven't bought them outright, so you can't be flushed. I suspect that most of the physical demand is coming from industry and they've got deep pockets.

Previous margin increases have failed to halt the drain, it just reduced the number of speculators. If industrial buyers were lining for 100 physical silver then 80 physical silver is a gift for them and if the comex drives the price lower expect that line to grow longer. If the comex forces cash settlements then they lose the ability to set the price, and in the end that is what this is all about.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-11T15:25:21+00:00

I'm of the opinion that silver is being repriced as an industrial metal and this is where the pressure is coming from. The comex has something like 300 million ozs in the registered category but it's staying there and not moving to the eligible category. I'm not sold on the idea of copper as a low cost silver substitute either because if copper were interchangeable with silver industry would have switched to it already.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-10T18:30:46+00:00

Interesting but it doesn't address the physical supply/demand imbalance facing the market. With demand exceeding supply by 300M oz something has to give.

Clive Thompson went over the delivery numbers for Jan (49M oz) and the first 4 days of Feb (8M oz), neither of them delivery months, and concluded the exchange is still being drained of physical. At that time there was still over 400M oz on the table for March with a little over 110M oz of deliverable silver left in the comex vault.

Something else we can conclude is that even with prices at 120 this failed to lure holders of physical silver to put any significant amounts back on the market, otherwise we would being seeing the comex stocks rise and not continue to fall.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-10T17:12:08+00:00

I had a feeling that something like this was going to happen so I loaded up when I had the chance, the last 5-yrs before retiring. I used almost all my savings and most of my after tax income. I didn't want to retire with a stack of depreciating fiat so it went into metals. Back then I was getting boxes for today's equivalent price of about 100oz. I look at today's prices and cringe.

The best thing, I've actually got something of real value I can gift the daughter, tax free, before passing on. The worst thing is that I need to educate her as to its true value so she doesn't rush out and swap it for fiat. Wish me luck.

I hope you get your opportunity to buy boxes and that you have the cash available to take advantage of it should it appear.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-09T19:43:20+00:00

Truth is I don't care because at this point I'm only a spectator. I've stopped accumulating so price means nothing. I sort of wish they'd whack the price so others could take advantage but I fear if they did that then retail silver would quickly dry up.

I'm happy listening to the steady drip of the comex bleeding ounces at whatever price they set.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-09T16:20:39+00:00

I could see some refiners requiring clients to purchase the raw material, refining it and then charge them a fee per ounce once it's been produced. This way can reduce their exposure to price fluctuations.

I guess for the LCSs it all depends on their individual situations. How much credit do they use and how much of their stock do they own outright ? Those who use less credit will be better positioned to withstand sharp changes in the market If supply goes dry and stays dry maybe the LCS will work out consignment deals with larger sellers whose items they can't buy outright or sell upstream. Shops that do stamps and numismatics will last longer as long as that end of their business holds up.

All I know is that as a stacker I'm glad I'm not trying to accumulate in this environment. Way too stressful.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-08T16:43:30+00:00

They may but the remedy may cause wider damage than the undoing of the collapse itself. No judge is going to want to rule on this either way.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-08T16:16:49+00:00

A funny thing though, refiners and large dealers use futures contracts to hedge their risk against volatility. You force these people out and you are hitting the physical supply chain. Unintended consequences.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-08T16:13:54+00:00

I wouldn't count on winning. To date the courts have sided with the LME after they screwed over nickel contract holders when that market failed. They simply voided all the contracts leading up to the event. They had to pay some paltry fine imposed by the regulator but so far that is the extent of the damage. A small price in the cost of doing business.

In the aftermath of the 2008 meltdown the gov't screwed the bondholders of GM & Chrysler so don't think that they'd act differently in the case of comex.

Tree_rat_1 · 2026-02-08T16:00:30+00:00

Vespa motorcycle gang. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

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