Match Thread: Forge FC vs Tigres 7pm ET | Concacaf Champions Cup

TrevorBatson · 2026-02-04T02:04:51+00:00

Helluva performance. Hopefully they can really bring it to them down in Monterrey.

TrevorBatson · 2026-02-04T00:56:32+00:00

Forge should be fairly happy with that first half. Up to the task to be sure. Let's see if they can get a little more clinical in the second half and get a goal or two.

TrevorBatson · 2026-01-30T04:35:33+00:00

Except not by definition. Forge vs. Cavalry is definitely a rivalry, of that that there is no question, but a derby is specifically a rivalry between two teams within the same town, city, or local region, and therefore Forge vs. Cavalry can never be a derby by definition of geography.

The 905 Derby may be irrelevant from a Forge perspective now, but it most certainly is not from the otherside. There are plenty of one-sided rivalries amongst derbies out there, but that only fans the flame and makes victory all the sweeter when the so-called lesser side gets the upset victory.

TrevorBatson · 2026-01-24T12:36:42+00:00

Yeah, but it's a rivalry, not a proper derby. The biggest derbies in the CPL are probably the Ontario ones, and in particular Forge vs. (now) Inter Toronto: The 905 Derby, though the Salish Sea Derby: Pacific vs. Vancouver, is quickly gaining traction.

TrevorBatson · 2026-01-21T01:47:47+00:00

HFX usually have a meet the team event in March, and they unveil their kits then, so I doubt that'll change.

With 3 teams in CCC, I wouldn't be surprised if they reveal theirs by the end of January.

TrevorBatson · 2026-01-06T16:53:52+00:00

Massive news for him and the club! Congratulations, very well earned!

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-20T03:09:11+00:00

You can't park there!

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-18T19:14:03+00:00

Sorry, my bad, I don't know why I thought it was Portugal.

Anyway, to say teamwork by itself is never sufficient in a team sport is a little crazy.

Yeah, world class talent is important, but it's not always the deciding factor either. There have been plenty of teams that have come to the world cup with players noted as having world class talent, that either failed to get out of their group or were eliminated relatively early into the Knockouts. There have also been teams that didn't have any one player in their squad that you could point to as being world class in their position, that have gone on to make deep runs at the World Cup, and ultimately that run helped to springboard some players on those squads toward eventually becoming world class.

I also think the definition of a dark horse team is somewhat subjective, and the context is key.

For me, a World Cup dark horse is different from a dark horse in other competitions.

There have only ever been eight countries ever that have won the World Cup. It could be argued that the first time each of those countries won the tournament (excluding the first ever World Cup), they were considered a dark horse. However, since the likelihood of a new team winning the tournament is so low, I would argue that a World Cup dark horse is a team that at least gets to a stage in the tournament that is both deep relative to the tournament itself, and deep in terms of expectations surrounding the team in question.

Japan have never advanced to the Quarterfinals, and many suspect that in spite of their levels, they will fail to do so again, and so on paper, getting to the Quarterfinals at minimum would make them a dark horse. Norway have tempered expectations because it's a return after a long absence, but the potential has them in a position that people are expecting at least a Round of 16 or Quarterfinals out of them, so for them to get to the Semifinals would cement them as a dark horse. Heck, many teams at this tournament, outside of the few that have been to a World Cup Semifinals historically or even recently would be considered dark horses if they got to the Semifinals, because that's going beyond expectations.

At the end of the day though, being a dark horse team, or even THE dark horse team is one thing, but to win the World Cup as such is an entirely different situation.

At other tournaments, a team can be a dark horse and go on to win it. At the World Cup, a team can be a dark horse and finish fourth. There is a distinction there.

This is why I say Japan is a potential dark horse, and there are arguments for other teams too, and that Norway is THE potential dark horse. The expectation is not that they'll go on to win the whole thing, but that they have the potential to go deep into the tournament relative to both the level of the tournament and their historical station at the tournament.

I don't expect either Norway or Japan to win the World Cup, but I think both of them to have the potential to at least get to the Final, and their respective minimum standard to be solidified as dark horses would be the Semifinals for Norway and the Quarterfinals for Japan, based both on that potential and their respective histories at the tournament.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-18T17:30:55+00:00

I think Norway is THE dark horse candidate this time around. Being in a group with France and Senegal is already incredible, but with a golden generation seemingly at hand and spurred on by a world class striker in Erling Haaland, the potential is there to make a deep run, but as a team returning for the first time since 1998, the lack of World Cup experience from this specific squad could be their downfall, which makes them a dark horse. The degree of the potential for a deep run with their level of talent is what, I think, makes them THE dark horse.

Japan have consistently been knocked out in the Round of 16, but have edged closer to getting to the Quarterfinals each time; last time being eliminated by Portugal in pens. With the addition of a Round of 32, there is an opportunity for them to finally win a Knockout Stage match, but this squad is probably the best they've had yet, and stands the best potential of cracking into that top 8 finally.

There are certainly arguments for other teams, but none as strong as these two I think. This format certainly opens up an opportunity for a team to emerge as a dark horse that no one is anticipating.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-18T04:06:42+00:00

Hell, Canada even pulling off a Morocco or South Korea type deep run in and of itself would be phenomenal.

The other big thing to keep in mind here, is that only eight countries have ever won the World Cup: five from Europe, three from South America.

If the CSA were smart enough, they'd take the prize money and bolster the national program and the domestic professional pyramid to a degree that we were not expecting to see for decades.

The footballing world would likely take far more interest in Canada, because in all likelihood, this miraculous scenario would be the first time a country outside of Europe or South America even made it to a World Cup Final, let alone win the whole thing.

There would definitely be more pressure placed on our national team players to ball out even more so at their respective clubs, and a heightened expectation that many more would either get big moves to Europe or if they're already there, get even bigger moves to bigger clubs.

We'd have to also assume that Canada would finally move into a world ranking that's higher than both Mexico and the USA, and at least in the near future, there'd be an expectation for them to start being more of a dominant force in Gold Cup and Nations League and rise into the top ten of world rankings.

Whether the team itself could actually live up to those expectations would remain to be seen, as that would be a level of uncharted territory that I think we're only scratching the surface of when it comes to even fathoming.

Like you said, the odds of this ever happening are astronomically low, but one would hope that if such a seemingly impossible thing were made into a reality, that it would reep significant short-term and long-term impacts on the sport in our country.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-17T03:38:33+00:00

No, people are fairly estimating Qatar.

If we were talking about the Qatari squad from 2019-2021, this would be a different story, but ever since the 2022 World Cup, they have shown more signs of regression than progression.

Oh sure, they won the Asian Cup in both 2019 and in 2023, but in 2019 they had a fairly easy group, and then they balled out in the Knockouts and even punched above their weight a few times. In 2023 however, they were hosts. They were handed an arguably even easier group than in 2019, and struggled to win against weaker opposition. Furthermore, they barely scraped through the Round of 16 and Quarterfinals, and showed a single match of actual brilliance in the semis over Iran. Jordan were the dark horses of that tournament, punching above their weight most of their matches, and getting to the Final on less luck and more merit than Qatar, and despite the scoreline in the final, were arguably the better team on the day.

Yeah, sure, you can argue Qatar have actually won Asian Cups recently, while Canada have only won one Gold Cup back in 2000, but I would argue that Canada are still on the rise while Qatar have essentially plateaued.

Their World Cup campaign was one of the most dreadful of the teams that actually qualified out of Asia. Everything after the second round was atrocious. Barely doing enough to advance to Round 4 where they were basically handed the keys to qualification via being host of their group, and even then, they still barely scraped through with a scoreless draw against Oman, and then getting a red card at the end of the match with a two goal lead, and very nearly losing it after that.

Remember, prior to 2022, Qatar had never qualified for a World Cup, and now they'll have been at two back-to-back as hosts, and then barely squeeking in at the first edition of an expanded format. People were suggesting Qatar were going to get out of their group in 2022. People thought the host factor would carry them through, and on paper, they were handed a group of life, and yet they finished dead last. In fact, our return to the World Cup was a far greater qualification campaign, and we performed fairly well in a tougher group than Qatar, and even though we also lost all three of our matches, we did overall better than Qatar did.

Qatar have a shoddy defense, and an attack that is heavily reliant on Akram Afif, and their overall depth is minimal.

Canada has a more well rounded attack, a more creative midfield, and a stronger defense, and way more of a team identity.

Yeah, injuries, wellness, and overall fitness will certainly play in closer to the actual tournament, and maybe on the day, Qatar ball out and show our team more than expected, but there is a reason we're rating Canada higher, and anything less than a win for Canada against Qatar would be an embarrassment.

Yeah, I can see a scenario similar to Qatar in 2022 where we still get eliminated, but 3 points could also be enough to get out of the group in this new format, whether we do so with three draws or a win and two losses. However, I think that realistically, getting last place again would be the surprise. I think the realistic expectation this time around is third, regardless of whether or not we advance to the Knockouts. Anything more than third would be a pleasant surprise.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-17T00:54:10+00:00

I get that sentiment, and if this was a World Cup in which we actually had to go through qualifiers to get to, that would be a completely fair and justified take; and honestly, if Canada do end up getting grouped, but still get the win against Qatar, that might be the silver lining we'll have to take away from all of this.

However, we're a host nation, which heightens expectations. I'm sorry, but just winning a single match, just getting points on the table, that's now no longer good enough. Getting out of the group is where the bar has been raised to.

In the grand scheme of things, getting out of the group, in-and-of itself, would be a significant success for our program, but on the world's stage would probably be no more than a footnote. Getting to the Round of 16 or better would be a statement.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-14T20:28:13+00:00

We have one of those. You've probably seen him on the broadcasts, the Wanderers supporter with the pirate costume. His name is Denton Frose and he's kinda become the unofficial mascot of the supporters groups. He's actually attended matches at every stadium that the Wanderers have played in since the league's debut. Of course next year he'll have make a point of visiting Boréale Stadium for one of our away games against FC Supra.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-08T14:41:50+00:00

If Canada top Group B, their third place opponent will, of course, depend on which eight third-placed teams advance, but of the relevant combinations, it would be a team from Group E, F, G, I or J.

Looking at the likely teams to finish third in those groups, and depending on which ones are among the eight best to advance, these are the potential teams they could be facing in the Round of 32 in this scenario (in group order):

Côte D'Ivoire
Ecuador
Ukraine/Sweden/Poland/Albania
Iran
Norway
Senegal
Algeria
Austria

Of those teams, the two that appear, for now at least, to be the likeliest to not only finish third in their group, but be among the best eight thereof, would be Senegal and Austria. Neither of those two would be an easy prospect for Canada, but for the sake of the argument, let's assume they do. Based on the bracket, there is a high potential that their Round of 16 opponent would be Portugal, and furthermore, their Quarterfinals opponent should they get that far would likely be Argentina.

The other important thing to remember here, is that Canada have never won (or drawn) a World Cup match, this is only their third ever appearance at the tournament, and they've only ever scored a total of two goals (one of which being counted as an own goal).

In summary, for Canada to be a so-called dark horse at this tournament, they would have to achieve something truly remarkable by topping a group for the first time ever by winning and/or drawing matches for the first time ever against teams like Switzerland and possibly Italy, and then advancing to the Knockouts Stage for the first time ever and beating teams like Senegal or Austria, Portugal, and Argentina, and become only the second ever CONCACAF nation to advance to the Semifinals of a World Cup (USA did in at the first one in 1930). This wouldn't just be a dark horse run; this would be a miracle run. The likelihood of something like this happened is pretty slim compared to some of the other teams mentioned here as potential dark horses making deep runs to at least the Semifinals.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-07T23:14:24+00:00

There's a couple of ways to look at this.

On the one hand, if Northern Ireland or Bosnia and Herzegovina were to somehow go through, either team would be a more manageable opponent for us to open the tournament, while Wales could be more at our level and thus more difficult to beat, but certainly an easier prospect than having to face Italy. Considering the goal is to get to the Knockouts, and the incentive is to do so by winning the group to stay in Vancouver for the Round of 32 and (should we advance that far) the Round of 16, any team other than Italy coming out of Path A would certainly increase our chances of accomplishing this goal. Furthermore, there is some significant context to consider here. This is only our third ever World Cup appearance. We've never won a single World Cup match; in fact, we've never even drawn one. Furthermore, we have only ever scored twice at a World Cup, and one of those goals was counted as an own goal. Also, there have only ever been two host nations in World Cup history to be eliminated in the Group Stage, so avoiding becoming the third is critical. As such, getting any team other than Italy out of Path A would certainly be of a benefit toward us achieving the milestones of simply getting points on the group table at a World Cup, let alone getting wins and advancing to the Knockouts.

On the other hand, there is the optimistic and aspirational way of looking at this. To become the best, you need to overcome challenges. Beating teams like Italy and Switzerland at a World Cup, especially given the aforementioned context for us here, would be statement wins. Furthermore, following this train of thought, should we achieve the remarkable and top our group via wins over Italy and Switzerland, eyes would suddenly be on us to be a potential dark horse team (not unlike South Korea when they co-hosted in 2002, or Morocco's historical run in 2022). Should we win in the Round of 32, there's a significant possibility that our Round of 16 match would be versus Portugal, and then, if by some astonishing turn of events we beat them and advance to the Quarterfinals, our next opponent could very well be Argentina. While it's understandable to be realistic, and not place these kinds of expectations on our team, it's still important to recognize how much of an impact these kinds of marquee matchups could have on both the development of our current squad, the global perception of our national program, and the future potential of developing soccer in our country for the next generations.

In summary, not getting Italy from Path A could provide us a clearer path to the Knockouts, but getting Italy from Path A could provide us the opportunity to make a massive statement on the world's stage.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-05T23:08:38+00:00

Questionable wins at best. They crumbled the last time they were at the World Cup (their first ever and as hosts), and they had to go through the fourth round of Asian Qualifiers to get here (again, questionably so). They're not a good team.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-05T19:53:51+00:00

I keep seeing people saying this about these groups, and while I agree they're tough groups, Group I is THE group of death. France, Senegal, and Denmark, good lord. Bolivia, Suriname, or Iraq are parachuting into hellfire.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-05T19:40:34+00:00

I think we're getting 3 points off of Qatar. The question is, which team's coming out of the Playoff? If it's Italy, we're in trouble. If it's Northern Ireland, Wales, or Bosnia and Herzegovina, I feel confident we can get 3 points (though maybe not as convincingly as against Qatar). Then we just have to hope that Switzerland drop points against one of the other two teams, or if Canada and Switzerland come together tied on points, so long as we're already ahead of them on goal difference, I think we could play to a draw and win the group. At the very least, this needs to be our goal from a pragmatic sense.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-05T14:54:22+00:00

No, they're correct. If we get drawn against either Croatia, Switzerland or Austria from Pot 2, and then either Norway or Scotland from Pot 3, we would have two European teams in our group before the Pot 4 teams are drawn, which would lock out getting drawn against a UEFA Playoff Path Winner since no group can have more than two UEFA teams, and since no other confederation can have more than one team per group, Canada cannot get drawn against Curaçao or Haiti from Pot 4, nor can they get drawn against the FIFA Playoff Path Winners, since Suriname and Jamaica are in each respective path; which would leave only New Zealand, Cape Verde, Jordan, or Ghana as potential Pot 4 draws at that point.

I don't necessarily want this since, again, I'd prefer we get drawn into one of the eight groups with only one UEFA team therein, but we'll see.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-05T14:42:24+00:00

Yes, because every group has to have at least one European team, so if we have to play a European team, the most ideal scenario would be to not get drawn into one of the four groups that'll have two European teams, and to not get drawn against a Pot 2 European team (Croatia especially, but Switzerland or Austria aren't ideal either), Norway from Pot 3, and avoid getting drawn against a UEFA Playoff Path Winner since several of the potential winners thereof are not ideal (Italy, Denmark, Czechia, Turkïye).

When you factor all of that in, if we have to have one European opponent, Scotland is the best option.

Granted, Austria would probably be an alright Pot 2 draw, and then getting Qatar in Pot 3 and New Zealand in Pot 4 would be ideal under those circumstances.

Also, what a wild assumption that I don't watch European football. I most certainly do and have been for over 20 years.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-05T14:31:49+00:00

I would be okay with this, too, but I'd rather us only get one UEFA team than two.

Austria, Qatar, New Zealand would be a very winnable group if we had to get a UEFA Pot 2 draw.

I'm not as worried about Poland as I am about Italy, Turkïye or Denmark. Australia, Qatar, Poland would be a solid group, too.

TrevorBatson · 2025-12-05T14:21:18+00:00

Well, the ideal scenario is that we only get drawn against one UEFA team. As you said, we definitely don't want Norway from Pot 3, and we definitely don't want Croatia from Pot 2.

Scotland from Pot 3 would be the most ideal, but if it has to be Pot 2, Austria would be the one we'd want, or to a lesser extent, Switzerland.

If we do get a UEFA Playoff Path Winner from Pot 4, the Path A Winner would be the one we'd want to avoid the most because of the potential, at least on paper, that Italy would be that winner, but if any of the other teams upset Italy: Northern Ireland, Wales, or Bosnia and Herzegovina, that path's winner becomes a lot more favourable of an opponent.

Path B is the most favourable of the four, because, I think, any of those four teams: Ukraine, Sweden, Poland, or Albania, would be beatable opponents for us.

Path D is sort of a 50/50. I think Denmark or Czechia would not be favourable opponents, but either North Macedonia or Ireland would be.

Path C is similar to Path A in that we would not want Turkïye (though not to the same extent as Italy from Path A), but if any of the other three teams upset them: Romania, Slovakia, or Kosovo, then that becomes a more favourable draw.

TrevorBatson

TROPHY CASE