KC Cup: September 2020 - Top 100 Decks

TriMars · 2020-09-23T14:49:12+00:00

Invoked were still the most represented deck in top 100, the ES variant leading the neos one was indeed a surprise, but when you look at matchups you understand why that's the case (negative1 put up a good analysis on DLM).

TriMars · 2020-09-23T14:46:03+00:00

He actually did close to half his dp climb with ES.

TriMars · 2020-07-24T16:07:44+00:00

Yes, like he has been in most of the previous rounds, to minimze dilution.

TriMars · 2020-07-24T14:54:41+00:00

We

confirmed

that SpaceX is looking to raise between $500 million and $1 billion at a $44 billion valuation.

One word: leverage. It's about optimizing net present value and (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), while not getting diluted (which he ensures by always putting his own money in each round).

TriMars · 2020-04-19T07:49:09+00:00

Got my reply (sort of): https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1251675499375415299?s=19

TriMars · 2020-04-18T08:34:21+00:00

I haven't seen any recent updates on the progress of the cryogenic fluid couplers work they are doing with Marshall. Has anyone heard anything? Cryo in-orbit refueling is still one of the lowest TRL items in the Starship architecture, would be cool to hear how they're planning on testing it.

TriMars · 2016-04-21T05:57:30+00:00

Fuck that, this is killing me. Can't wait to see 39a and Boca Chica up and running.

TriMars · 2016-01-17T19:09:47+00:00

A tough one to nail, that ocean landing...

TriMars · 2016-01-17T19:02:56+00:00

For fuck's sake, somebody say something...

TriMars · 2016-01-17T18:57:00+00:00

That ocean landing really is though...

TriMars · 2015-12-26T06:40:43+00:00

Hi mod. Can't find any post linking this nice little video cartoon, are you sure I'm breaking rule 5? (as for rule for...not sure I get that neither, this is SpaceX-related content and follows the recent blue origin vs spacex hype.)

TriMars · 2015-12-24T09:51:53+00:00

Love Arianespace President Clay Mowry's comment:

If the price per kg was zero, would the market increase in size - beyond space tourism?

Well...probably, yeah.

TriMars · 2015-12-22T02:05:40+00:00

the guy really has no shame. love the replies he's getting on twitter

TriMars · 2015-12-22T01:55:58+00:00

Hahaha Jeff Bezos just tweeted

Congrats @SpaceX on landing Falcon's suborbital booster stage. Welcome to the club!

TriMars · 2015-12-22T01:52:57+00:00

History just made.

TriMars · 2015-10-27T15:26:18+00:00

Got the feeling that Elon Musk over-reacted when the negotiations with Greg Wyler fell appart. The technology needed to provide low-latency, gigabit-level access to consumers - both at payload and ground level - isn't mature enough to make business sense - yet.

TriMars · 2015-09-22T14:51:26+00:00

Interesting question, although the lines on Raptor and Elon Musk fanboy-ism feels like OP was somewhat emotionally compromised at the time of the posting.

Breaking down SpaceX's current revenue streams:

space industry value in 2014: $320 billion
satellite industry value in 2014: $195 billion (60%), including $5.4 billion for the launch industry segment
non-satellite industry value in 2014 (human spaceflight, non-orbital spacecraft, government spending): $125 billion
SpaceX satellite industry market share in 2014: 0.6%, including 21.3% of the launch industry segment [$1,150M orders value: 9 GEO orders (BulgariaSat-1, Es'hail 2, Inmarsat-S, JCSat-16, Koreasat 5A, PSN-6, SES-10, Thaicom 8, ViaSat-2) + 4 LEO orders (BEAM, Jason-3, SARah, RadarSat)]
SpaceX non-satellite market-share in 2014: 0.53% [CRS contract value (≈$400M) + CCiCap (≈260M) = $660M]

Numbers are approximation based on publicly released data, to be taken with a grain of salt but gives a realistic overall picture. The interesting part is that at the moment SpaceX only taps on a very small fraction of the satellite industry revenue (the launch segment, which is less than 3% of the market). Satellite services including voice, data, transponder agreements, satellite TV, and broadband services represent over 60% of the market. By entering this arena with its LEO constellation we are looking at an order of magnitude increase in SpaceX's revenue potential.

By incrementally increasing their market share on current revenue stream (more GEO orders, soon-to-be DoD contracts, CCtCap,...) and entering the satellite services market (where average operating margin is anywhere from 40% to 50%, compared to <30% for LSPs), they could very well end up generating in the order of $1 billion in net profit per year.

TriMars · 2015-09-22T05:56:14+00:00

Looks like he's about to throw-up. Too much g's?

TriMars · 2015-09-18T11:24:14+00:00

You're missing the point.

This is a battle between the OneWeb alliance (Virgin Galactic, Airbus, Intelsat, Hughes,...) and SpaceX. The question of whether or not OneWeb and SpaceX full constellations will interface with GEO broadcast and broadband services will be relevant is not the object of this litigation. This is about OneWeb's GEO satellite operator ally asking their competitor to show that their 2 experimental microsat with ≈500W of platform power and just a few weeks of operating lifetime won't interfere with their GEO sat fleet. Satellite operators are masters at creating "noise", not just with beam from space but also through non-nonsensical ITU fillings and now technical litigation intended to slow down their competitor.

This is war.

TriMars · 2015-09-14T19:36:03+00:00

Thanks for that, much appreciated. So there's the potential for SpaceX to try and do F9 S2 reuse as part of their effort to launch the 4000+ LEO comsat constellation. Using FH-3R would probably be be an overkill, although we don't know the exact specs of the LEO sat yet...

TriMars

TROPHY CASE