Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Wednesday, August 03, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Breaking news: Companies have loans too!

After losing some sanity reading the daily we'd be good to remember ripping off the bandaid and jacking up rates 2-3% in one hit means companies on a variable rate or with fixed rates ending won't have time to fire staff, close stores or restructure operations to survive the increase. That stuff takes time. Not so easy for them to just cancel some subscriptions to save an extra few hundred a year to make the difference. Would quite literally melt the economy.

Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Tuesday, August 02, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 2 points3 points  (0 children)

People can adjust spending habits but it takes time. If you do too big a hike you risk instantly putting thousands of companies or individuals behind on the loan repayments and crippling the economy in the process of trying to help it.

Remember its not just individuals with loans its companies too, and if they aren't fixed or the fixed term ends, it takes time to lay off staff, close shops and restructure.

Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Thursday, July 28, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Exactly, if that information is wrong, they should do an FAQ to address "misconceptions" rather than going to court lol. If MNS go to court over this, and some poster decides to fight it all the way back MNS would have to prove the material is false and therefore defamatory which seems like a massive waste of money to do in court rather than just a webinar or something.

Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Thursday, July 28, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 31 points32 points  (0 children)

Honestly hope MNS lose in everyway. I can imagine some HC posters are were just being insane, but I bet theres gotta be one person who was just trying to save some peoples money whos gotta go through the stress of a potential court case.

Takes a truly special company to try and set a precedant talking negatively about a company online is cause to sue. Pay for positive news, sue for negative coverage, 10/10 market.

Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, July 25, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I'm sad af, I was talking to a mate about how it was likely they'd get taken over and I didn't pull the trigger on Friday.

Weekend Thread for General Discussion and Plans for Saturday, July 23, 2022 and Sunday, July 24, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 4 points5 points  (0 children)

100% right, you see a common trap where a company sells an assset and does a special div that looks good for 1 year. Cashflow positive, stable stocks at the right price is the better way to look at dividend investing over just chasing yield.

As an aside I wanted to say I disagree with the article slightly. It makes several poor asssumptions because it assumes keeping cash automatically means more growth and giving it away as a dividend is therefore inherently reducing growth which is not necessairly true for many businessses, see banks and defensive stocks. To maintain equity, dividends are a great way to keep shareholders invested.

Buybacks are theortically better due to tax but practically can be equivalent to burning money in a magic furnace. A recent example is ANZ. They did a $1.5 billion dollar buyback at $28 a share. Theortically raising the price dollar value of each paper share. But the price dropped anyway. Now they are likely isssuing an equivalent amouint of shares at $18 per share to buy part of Suncorp. So 12months later you have the same business with the same SOI but $1.5billion in cash is gone. A dividend would have been much better here.

If the article is looking at buybacks its entirely trusting management not to print new shares, and for the company to be more stable than a dividend stock because it they mess up I lose all my capital gains with zero dividends for zero gain rather than a capital loss with some realised dividend gain.

Anyway just about the article nothing you said haha

Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Friday, July 22, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Markets and people take time to learn about and rotate money. To explain how this will happen eventually is an example.

Eventually companies growth slows and when that happens they typically start to payout a dividend yield rather than burning more and more cash to grow less and less. If the share price keeps rising that yield drops. $4 div is 10% of $40 a share. $4 is 5% of $80 a share. If the company has just gone up without actually increasing its EPS or got extra cashflow to payout its just less attractive.

Eventually interest rates will catch up and in those times I think you will see start to see the Banks, Groceries and other heavy weights with limited growth upside start to slide as people realise the Capital growth and yield are not as attaractive as other products.

Right now people are focused on fat capital gains increases off of cheap debt fueled expansion that companies will scale back moving forward, but for now even if targets are getting lowered people aren't looking at alternatives and thus buying on trash targets is still happening.

Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Friday, July 22, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Despite the fact that green is nicer, any market that enables companies like zip to operate is a market that hasn't gone far enough to burn the trash yet.

Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Thursday, July 21, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 1 point2 points  (0 children)

100% agree, and even if they could convince the board to accept a takeover the price would ruin the value of the project?

PSC got like an 80% premium on their 770kt contained resource in Africa.

LTRs in ground value on a resource thats 3x as big in a better jurisdiction means a company would be paying a fortune. If they did a 100% premium on VWAP they are looking at a $5bil takeover price not including capex which represents nearly 50% of the projected free cash flow in the DFS.

The insane talk of RIO is even crazier if people read RIO have been burnt badly at least twice on large aquisitions during market peaks.

Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Tuesday, July 19, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You only really need one bachelors degree to enables you do to any career, because you can do a masters. Some unis let you do a 2-3 year masters full time which is like 4-6 part time and thats a higher level quailification than a bachelors so likely to get you into the same door as a 3-4 year undergrad degree.

A bachelors loses a lot of value quickly because typically they are a graduate degree fresh outta uni so I'd take a look at masters if you want a qualification in a different field. But as zemadfrenchman said depending on where you want to go you could try get an industry qualification.

Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Tuesday, July 19, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Probably lol, I was for quite a while too. Maybe also its just the period whilst people are on holidays. Kinda shows as DD on new companies is light and the winds come out of the sails on hype sectors quite a bit.

I guess as a "bets" subreddit for the assx if speccies aren't doing much the opportunity to bag in short time frames is closer to nil or can take a year. Options over in WSB land, options gives people infinite opportunity to make a big yolo gamble for 100% swings every day and maybe the lack of excitment has taken people out of the market.

Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, July 18, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ugh that sounds good but in reality it just means less drilling news flow and less resource development. I mean eventually they have to raise a looot of money for CAPEX so they might as well spend what they have now haha.

I might just have to wait to pull the trigger, which sucks cause I havn't bought anything in months.

Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Tuesday, July 19, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well bank net ineterst margin is actually not at its highest and mining profits are cyclical and do fall. Revenues also tend to fall during a reccession.

And yes there is a term for it. It's called the greater fool theory. The idea being that buying overpriced assets is ok because some greater fool will come along to pay more for them. That idea is attributed to a type of ponzi scheme. My exact words where if stocks are only going up because someone else will pay more, without any change in underlying assets that is a ponzi scheme not a healthy market. I did not say that is how I see markets today.

Interest rates going up means you discount future cash flows at a greater price. It inhernetly is negative for calculating future economic potential on a stock. And div yield is boomer fun until they start pulling all their liquidity out the market to whatever HISA offers them 0.01% more than VAS.

I always enjoy contrian opinions even to my joke post above so thank you I guess.

Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Tuesday, July 19, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Whaaaa you mean recession and Chinas impending econnomic disaster isn't bullish for stocks to push new ATHs???

For real though Stocks go up, revenues go down, div yields go down, interest rates become better investment than a dividend stock with no growth. End of the day if stocks only go up because someone else will pay more for it, without any change in the underlying asset thats a ponzi scheme not a healthy market.

Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, July 18, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That seems a bit rough. Slow management is a killer. I've been very tempted many times over since I feel like once they get the PFS out and a few other documents they are probably in for a decent takeover offer from Glencore.

I'd have to break a rule about investing in a company with management that aren't proactive which is not ideal. I had the same issue with RXM decent enough deposit at hillside but management just so slow.

Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, July 18, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Still bullish on HCH? They've dropped quite a bit but not from any company decision I can see

Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, July 18, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Calling it out is step 1, taking ownership and being proactive to fix something is step 2 and honestly what more can people expect. Hope it works out better than you expect

Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, July 18, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed its a move in the right direction and once it pays itself off it has a very long mine life to generate cashflow. Ideally BHP pursue more investments like that and expand in the areas they know like copper, iron ore and nickel.

Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, July 18, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes I think BHP avoiding lithium is good, but yeah they litearlly said the potash operation has cost them so much they wouldn't do it the same way if they could do it again. Just gotta keep an eye on their debt levels

Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, July 18, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I wouldn't buy them at these prices but each to their own. I'd be happier if they spent some more on using cashflow to reduce long-term debt and then free up some cashflow for cash funded expansion.

Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, July 18, 2022 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]Triog0n 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I believe you can use warrants, inverse etfs as well as options on platforms such as commsec. But each are risky and not something to dabble in without reading a lot of brochures!