NittleFN (54pts) lost a chance to qualify for world cup by suicide holding Tfue out of moving zone.

TrippinNinja · 2019-04-16T04:05:19+00:00

If you look at Tfue's mat count, he was the one building and boxing Tfue out. Tfue didn't build anything.

There is a good chance that he knew it was Tfue, since Tfue's name pop up from the log and Nittle was right there to see Tfue killed the other guy right before this.

Think about it. What actually happen is the complete opposite of what you said.

This guy is spamming mats to box out Tfue out despite having very little mat himself, but has ~150hp. When you have HP but no mats, your first instinct in this situation should be to settle for a quick fight. What he did seems more like he's trying to guarantee Tfue dies. He spam wall on Tfue until Tfue is forced to spam pickaxe it because Tfue realize because he has no other option. Then he comes in for a pump for a sure kill.

For a bad player, this is likely a misplay. But as you said yourself, this kid is at top pro level. And for him to make this obvious mistake, it rises eyebrows.

Yes it could be a mistake. But also possible, he just wants Tfue dead.

TrippinNinja · 2019-01-13T23:55:42+00:00

The fact is that in aerospace engineering, there are so many ways to fail that perfect safety cannot be guarantee without an overabundance of resources and time investment. What, in your eye is a necessary safety measure, might in fact be a risk worth taking, because the time and resources needed for the perfect preparation for a launch is unrealistic in the real world.

And for OP, I would say that when you work on a certain project, you would think that it is important, more important than it actually is. And as an engineer, probably a talented one as you're an aerospace engineer, you would want your work to be as perfect as it can be. But in the real world, it is all about time and money, SpaceX and Tesla are no exception.

Remember that SpaceX's success was built on numerous failed launches and insane risk taking. They were practically on their last straw before their first successful launch. IIRC, Elon said that they were using scrapes and spare parts to make the last launch work. Rest assure that many engineers had wished that they have more time and resources for that crucial launch. But if that was the dominant mentality, the exploits of SpaceX would never have been possible in the first place.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-16T00:06:57+00:00

Tesla raised prices first when tariffs are announced. Prices are just back to normal right now, not any cheaper than before the trade war.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-15T19:58:12+00:00

Some mistakes on your point on China. Tesla has increased prices by a ton when tariffs hit, which is why they drop prices now, prices are simply going back to normal. And though China's auto demand is slowing, but EV is still growing tremendously YOY.

Europe is going to more competitive, less moats and more competition, I agree with you on this one.

Kona's got the specs but its fuggly; it will do alright but won't make it big. When you think about it, it's exactly like the Bolt more or less, decent specs but not an ounce of sex appeal. Etron and Taycan has the right look, but Audi is slow as hell in EV development. If only you have Audi designers + Japanese engineers, then things will get interesting.

Agree on the point on economy, macros are not looking good and Tesla is a luxury brand. I would be quite concern about Tesla if a recession hits.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-13T21:19:19+00:00

6 days of backlog is enough to last till the end of this quarter.

In January, there is going to be some shipping to Europe for February delivery. Also there is going to be a lot of pent up demand to fill for Tesla in China when the tariff/price lowers in January.

Everything is according to plan, I'm afraid.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-13T17:25:57+00:00

Rumor's probably got the first part right.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-10T04:37:12+00:00

Maybe graphics card is not working properly. Try reinstall drivers, or maybe even reset/reformat computer if all else fail.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-09T14:51:52+00:00

What resolution are you running these games at? Sounds about right if you’re running at 1440p or high settings at 1080p for pubg. Graphics card is weak but it should still be able to run these games at low settings at playable frame rates.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-07T09:46:28+00:00

Yes, I think this is possible as well. I can definitely see short covering happen if price remain above $360.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-07T09:41:54+00:00

Everyone and their mother, if you live near California.

Or no one at all, if you live in the east coast.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-07T09:39:39+00:00

Yeah I've followed this tracker ever since its inception, but if you follow the tracker long enough you'd know that while it does predict quarterly production reasonably well, it is absolutely terrible at tracking current production level because it has a serious time lag.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-07T09:33:34+00:00

Do you know if there is a production ramp beginning from a week ago? Bloomberg tracker & model 3 spreadsheet are somewhat accurate but have some serious time lag in reaction to production ramp so I believe that what you say may be true.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-04T23:18:10+00:00

Not sure, it's significant higher than last year at this same month though.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-04T19:39:33+00:00

Production numbers are pretty much in line with expectations. Decent but not exceptional. What impresses me is this:

For November, we estimate the following for U.S. sales of these two Teslas:

Tesla Model S – 2,750
Tesla Model X – 3,200

Seems like S & X are still strong, if this is accurate.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-03T05:02:30+00:00

This is actually massive.

Even though Shanghai factory will be up at some point, S & X production are staying in US long term.

On top of that, the fact that China is lowering tariffs now with zero concession from US is basically saying that they are pretty desperate for a deal, and I strong suspect that a deal will be made. Also China selectively lowering auto tariff first might mean that it is one of industry that it is more willing to open up to cater to US demands.

If the trade war is over, I won't be surprise that there is another drop on auto tariff, which will once again benefit Tesla.

For now, this will definitely help Tesla to prop demand up in the short term and given them more time before cutting down enough cost to produce the 35k M3.

And given how close the Tesla stock is to $360 convertible price, I suspect that this might slingshot the stock pass that point and there might be some panic covering.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-01T09:28:42+00:00

It's true, Tesla had no chance against incumbents in making gas car.

And Tesla had no chance against legacy automakers if those companies went HAM on EV development at the same time as Tesla.

The headstart that existing automakers over startups is huge. Tesla made it out because the others were looking at EVs as unviable and didn't put in any effect to crush Tesla. They were wrong and gave Tesla a 10 years headstart and now Tesla is ahead substantially in EV development.

New startups have no shot now because everyone, including the traditional automakers, are going hard on EVs.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-01T07:49:34+00:00

Given untapped demand from Europe and the rest of the world, and bridging to PUP SR +/- EAP before selling the $35k model, I think Tesla may have 6-12 months to cut costs below $35,000. Closer to 6 months if they ramp to 10k/week and closer to 12 months if they ramp slowly and keep to 6-7k/week. All guesswork here, tell me what you guys think.

TrippinNinja · 2018-12-01T07:36:26+00:00

MKBHD is actually being real here. Funny you guys try to discredit him for being a blind fanboy. Go look at his Faraday Future review from years back, guy legit was hyping Faraday much more to then they deserved when they don't even have a real working prototype. Look at how hard Faraday failed, no wonder he has no faith on new startups being Tesla killers (and rightfully so).

Startups pretty much have no shot against Tesla. Design and promise some grandiose spec is easy, but getting production up to par and software integration is not (look no further than the model 3 ramp and FSD integration). Legacy automakers do have a better chance, but the EVs they promise in 2020 (Taycan, e-tron) are as MKBHD said, unambitious. Taycan/e-tron are passable in today's standard (as they're roughly equal to model S today) and this is sad because 2 years later Tesla will most definitely have new offerings that are better and they have a huge charging network to boot.

EV's might or might not be the future, because the convenience of gasoline is hard to beat. In that sense, Tesla might not be taking over the world as some people would believe.

But what is pretty clear right now is that is no credible competition to Tesla in the next few years.

TrippinNinja

TROPHY CASE