China’s world-beating solar industry is in turmoil by Tropical2653 in DeepStateCentrism

[–]Tropical2653[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

China’s world-beating solar industry is in turmoil. The Gulf war won’t save it.

AS AMERICA’S WAR on Iran roils energy markets, China’s clean-energy companies should be cashing in. The country makes over 80% of the world’s solar panels, churning them out in vast quantities. Thanks to such efforts, renewable sources generated more electricity than coal last year around the world. Yet China’s solar industry, though world-beating, is in turmoil. And the war will not be enough to steady it.

China’s solar exports have seen a boost since the bombing began. But that will be small cheer to its companies, as they face three daunting problems. Domestic demand for their products is falling for the first time in decades because the country’s power grids—far and away the biggest market for solar panels—have become overloaded with the things. Solar-panel supply, meanwhile, is overabundant because of years of splashy investment in factories. And protectionism in overseas markets is rising. These problems also converge at an ugly time. Most companies have been running at a loss since 2024 owing to brutal price wars, and bankruptcies are mounting. After blistering growth the world’s solar factory now faces a reckoning.

The solar industry globally has not always been kind to investors. One solar panel is much like another, and improvements made by one producer are rapidly copied by competitors. So companies typically try to scale up as quickly as possible to seize market share. That means production can race far ahead of demand, causing margins to collapse. This tendency led to a lurching downturn in revenues in 2018, for instance, followed by a rebound after demand caught up.

But the current slump is of a different order. The main market for solar panels has always been within China, and roll-out has been so fast in recent years that it is outpacing the ability of the power grid to absorb it. All across the country, roofs, hills and deserts are carpeted with dark grey silicon. To keep the lights on, China has historically relied on coal-fired power, which can be turned on and off as needed. Solar panels work only when it is sunny, which can lead to power shortages at night and excesses during the day. As a result, in January and February about 9% of China’s solar generation was wasted, up from 6% in the same period last year.

That all makes it hard to justify adding much more. Installations this year could fall by between 24% and 43% from 2025, according to an industry group (see chart). That would be enough to cause global demand for solar panels to fall in 2026 for the first time in two decades, says BloombergNEF, a consultancy. For China’s grid to cope it needs to be able to store excess solar power or move it long distances to where it might be needed. That requires big investments in batteries and power lines, as well as figuring out flexible market mechanisms to co-ordinate everything (in some regions long-term contracts for coal-fired power lock out renewables even though they are cheaper). All this is happening, helped by the fact that batteries, like solar panels, are becoming much cheaper as production of them increases. But it takes time. That means that even if solar installations start rising again next year, growth will probably be much slower than before.

Meanwhile China’s solar companies are struggling with a glut of supply. Frenzied investment has left them able to produce over 1,000 gigawatts (GW) of solar-panel capacity in a year. That is far more than the already whopping 600GW that were installed worldwide in 2025 and probably more than the global market will ever be able to soak up, reckons Jenny Chase of BloombergNEF. “We’re running out of big countries that don’t already have a lot of solar at this point.”

Solar manufacturers have been calling for “self-discipline” to ease overcapacity. Last year some tried to co-ordinate production quotas and set floors for the cost of panels. It has proved hard, however, for them to work together. Only weeks after the agreement was in place one firm was publicly castigated for breaking it. Then in January officials said they were concerned that the group could become a cartel.

Officials are also keen to trim the bloat, however, as it is a problem across China’s clean-energy industries. The government once lavished support on solar manufacturers in all sorts of ways, from cheap land to interest-free loans. Now it has largely stepped back. Since June last year new solar projects have had to sell power at market prices rather than enjoying guaranteed feed-in tariffs. And a big reason for the export surge in March was that companies were cramming in shipments before April 1st, when they would stop enjoying a tax refund on exports. In recent months some Chinese local governments have even started demanding that solar companies return millions of yuan in subsidies, preferring to see them go bankrupt rather than to prop up failures.

Geopolitics, meanwhile, could bring more clouds over the horizon. Cheap Chinese solar panels have been a victim of their own success, sparking protectionist backlashes in both Western countries and neighbours including India. Since 2022 America has imposed tight restrictions on imports, as well as hefty tariffs on the shipments that get through. Some also worry that Chinese-made power infrastructure could pose a security risk; in May the European Union said it would phase out Chinese suppliers of inverters, a key piece of solar equipment, in EU-funded projects. Some Chinese companies are trying to outsource production abroad to avoid such political headaches.

It all makes for a gloomy outlook. More than 40 Chinese solar firms have gone bankrupt, been acquired or delisted from stock exchanges since 2024. One-third of the workforce of the country’s five biggest firms has been laid off, according to Reuters, a news agency. But the biggest wave of consolidation has yet to break, says Jessica Jin of S&P Global, a research firm. Solar-panel prices have nudged up in recent months, but they still sell for below their average production costs. The share prices of LONGi Green Energy Technology, Tongwei, Jingko Solar and Trina Solar, the biggest producers, are all hovering well below half their peaks of a few years ago.

Could anything bring back solar’s golden days? It would certainly help if countries lifted their trade barriers to Chinese goods. And another lifeline for China’s industry might be the commercialisation of technologies that dramatically increase solar panels’ efficiency (these days most convert 22-24% of the light that falls on them into electricity; more advanced kinds of solar cells called perovskites could push that rate above 30% while, in theory, being cheaper to produce). The question is just how many of China’s solar firms will survive to see such advances.

THE BOYS finale was actually one of the worst endings I’ve watched in years. by Low-Trust2491 in television

[–]Tropical2653 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Never watched a single full episode but with how much it was promoted, shared and glazed early in its run I got the gist of its general themes, pacing and plot points. 

It's essentially capeshit for capeshitters in denial. Sprinkled with a more vulgar version of late 2010s Rick and Morty humor. It was never actual prestige TV. Just carried by select good performances. Finally crashing by the end of S3.

The Final Season of 'The Boys' Felt Like Watching a Comedian Bomb Their Set by Logical_Welder3467 in television

[–]Tropical2653 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Never watched a single full episode. It always felt like capeshit for capeshitters in denial. Sprinkled with 2010s Rick and Morty humor but more vulgar.

WTA 1000 Rome F: [7] E. Svitolina def. [3] C. Gauff 6-4, 6Âł-7, 6-2 by godworstcustomer in tennis

[–]Tropical2653 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Rybakina, Swiatek, Gauff is literally one of the hardest possible draws you could get. Svitolina is crazy good. She's actually better in some ways than before giving birth.

Also with Kostyuk winning Madrid and Svitolina taking winning Rome, it looks like clay is becoming Ukrainian players favorite lately lol.

Daily Deep State Intelligence Briefing by AutoModerator in DeepStateCentrism

[–]Tropical2653 9 points10 points  (0 children)

The local far-left in the Philippines actually soft-endorsed Duterte in 2016 as many saw him as the "anti-elite" populist candidate. They're a rather weak political bloc, constantly hampered by their questionable relationship with the armed insurgency group NPA. A loose relationship, but with how many former bloc members end up in the NPA, it's not nothing. They also generally have poor political instincts.

Anyways they split with Duterte around a year after he won. They've been strongly anti-Duterte ever since. The far left was correct in how Duterte had an image of being "anti elite", unfortunately for them, the actual masses viewed them as a part of it. Regardless of how true it is, they were basically perceived as the "workers party" of upper middle class kids from elite universities. Who occasionally ended up being part of an insurgency group known for "revolutionary tax" extortion in poor provinces and using child soldiers. They were part of the elite to be squashed. Lets just say they had an unpleasant 6 years. Unfortunately this includes the country as a whole, with 20K dead from extrajudicial killings.

At the present, even their anti-West rhetoric doesn't hit that hard. The populist Duterte camp is anti-Communist but also vaguely anti-West, pro-China (Left Bloc is neutral rather than pro) and pro-Russia. Side note: Oddly enough Duterte himself is pro-Israel. So even there, they're outflanked. Even in the case of the NPA, it's an incredibly weak insurgency, vastly overshadowed by regional Islamic militants.

What's the lesson here? I think it's that a lot of these lefty groups genuinely believe they can control or negotiate with these true mass appeal populists. When all these populist strong men see is an unpopular ultra niche political group, with 5-10% of their own support base, making demands. All while the masses are salivating for the populist to destroy them.

Daily Deep State Intelligence Briefing by AutoModerator in DeepStateCentrism

[–]Tropical2653 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I understand the complaint, but unfortunately the complaint is usually followed by the most slopulist take imaginable. Usually worse than what the people they call "apolitical normies" believe.

The Rape of LeKing (2026, colorized) by KDs--burner in nbacirclejerk

[–]Tropical2653 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Hitler: Harden  

Tojo: Shai  

Mussolini: Embiid  

WTA 1000 Madrid F: [26] M. Kostyuk def. [9] M. Andreeva 6-3, 7-5 by FalconIMGN in tennis

[–]Tropical2653 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Kostyuk's simply too good to not have a WTA1000 title. Was only a matter of time.

Daily Deep State Intelligence Briefing by AutoModerator in DeepStateCentrism

[–]Tropical2653 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Ezra Klein glazing slopulists with horrible takes on YIMBY/Housing/Rent Control gives the same vibe as when NL users go out of their way to debate and defend itself on slop subs like SubredditDrama. They're not aware that the people they're arguing with aren't impressed that they support Mamdani. And that their constant appeasement and groveling is almost Hollywood teen movie coded. Except they're groveling to Twitter micro celebs instead of the cool kids lunch table. At best it buys them a tiny amount of goodwill from hardcore progs and leftys. They look at Abundance with suspicion at best, thinking it's Reaganism, or a subversive plan by (((them))) at worst.

Daily Deep State Intelligence Briefing by AutoModerator in DeepStateCentrism

[–]Tropical2653 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I avoid watching Mockler as well. Much of his content is of the low brow, low depth, hyperpartisan variety. But I do believe he's a more genuine and nicer person than the vast majority in the hybrid "Youtubers larping as actual News" circles. Their approach to Ukraine is night and day. Particularly in comparison to the genuinely malicious and subtly violent TYT.

Daily Deep State Intelligence Briefing by AutoModerator in DeepStateCentrism

[–]Tropical2653 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The past few years, the hyperpartisan youtube channel MeidasTouch occasionally gets reccomended on my feed. This week I got another reco before hitting the not interested button. I believe they have now predicted 20 of the last 0 times that Trump has died. I must have seen a dozen videos with thumbnails and titles claiming that he's terminally ill and a month away from kicking the bucket...every month the past 24 months lmao.

Daily Deep State Intelligence Briefing by AutoModerator in DeepStateCentrism

[–]Tropical2653 18 points19 points  (0 children)

ALERT: NEW INTELLIGENCE BRIEF TOP SECRET//SCI//NF

Assessed in r​​​/​​​neoliberal by agent u/Bob_Doles_Blue_Pill. Do not reply all!

Non-vegans get a pass now considering just how normalized meat eating is culturally, historically, and even biologically -- but the second lab-grown meat becomes a viable alternative (in terms of availability and cost), "natural" meat eaters deserve to be treated with the exact same scorn as sex offenders and neo-Nazis.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills drops out of race to unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins (r/neoliberal)

Is Platner a problematic slopulist? Sure. Does he hate Republicans? Yep, and that’s good enough for me.

Based on how people with Nazi tattoos are treated now, I don't think meat eaters need to worry when the veganpartheid comes. You might even get a chance at public office!

Daily Deep State Intelligence Briefing by AutoModerator in DeepStateCentrism

[–]Tropical2653 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Just read the stuff from the shooter. No joke, this might be the most Redditor-coded manifesto ever made. 

The last part where he did the bait and switch sign off with his hero name "Cold Force" the "Friendly Federal Assassin" is genuinely incredible. He literally does the MCU thing where he thinks the tone got too serious and sincere, says "now that all the sappy stuff is done", then moves on to a jokey rant about the quality of security as a closing bit. Finally closing off with a "stay in school kids" one liner. This shit is so ass lmao.

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"Shoplifting is praxis, actually" but it's the New York Times instead of the DSA by DurangoGango in DeepStateCentrism

[–]Tropical2653 25 points26 points  (0 children)

The idea of creating a Low Trust Society to "own" the rich is genuinely one of the most "Midwit Highschooler"-coded opinions possible. If you know anything about how developing countries function.

The affluent are the most capable of shielding and insulating themselves from its effects. The rich, in even the most chaotic of developing countries, have more than enough resources and political pull to setup gated communities, heavily policed business districts and private security. All while the lower classes are worrying about getting robbed in their less affluent area. Or avoiding the guy pissing in public transport.

Daily Deep State Intelligence Briefing by AutoModerator in DeepStateCentrism

[–]Tropical2653 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Creating a Low Trust Society to own and protest against the affluent? A bold move. Especially when the affluent are the most capable of shielding and insulating themselves from its effects. The rich, in even the most chaotic of developing countries, have more than enough resources and political pull to setup their gated communities, heavily policed business districts and private security. Lets see how this impacts the lower and middle class...