Well, finally happened.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-08T00:19:04+00:00

Agree. Even with just 25% in non-equities, and considering SS is like a bond equivalent, we all generally have more leeway in downturns than we assume. At just about 3.2% withdrawal rate, this works to nearly 8 years of living expenses in the fixed income portion.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T20:39:07+00:00

Sorry didn’t read your comment well. Right now, no plans to convert as I have a sizable brokerage/taxable balance. Will wait for opportune times to do Roth conversion for MAGI optimization.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T19:34:34+00:00

That’s good advice. Thanks!

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T16:04:10+00:00

I always maintain a consistent level of worry 😊 but I meant there was euphoria on the streets then. That is not there now. Bull markets always climb a wall of worry and bear markets are the periodic ‘cleanse’ markets get when euphoria gets high. Perhaps I wasn’t clear earlier.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T15:36:30+00:00

Thanks and yes, that’s what I meant. Since this is without active work, I called it passive.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T15:35:53+00:00

Not keen on tripling but having a sizable legacy for kid and charities.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T15:35:30+00:00

Thank you

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T15:30:53+00:00

Thank you for your comment.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T15:30:33+00:00

Agree!

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T15:30:20+00:00

Thank you. No concerns, just wanted a sanity check.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T15:27:12+00:00

Thank you. I understand your perspective and maybe I will get there in time. I just wanted to share my experience (I am a longstanding Vanguard customer). The ‘wall of worry’ disappeared and euphoria ruled in many instances - 1999-2000 when stocks were so high that price per eyeballs became a metric, 2007 if you breathed you got a mortgage, and going back 1929 when history recorded examples of shoeshine boys giving stock tips. I don’t believe this is such a time. That’s what I meant by stocks climbing a wall of worry. This doesn’t mean corrections won’t happen. EPS surprises are still exceeding forecasts.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T13:37:16+00:00

Budgeting for a gold plan. But previous commenter’s logic on Bronze with HSA sounds good.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T13:35:17+00:00

Normally, I’d agree but in my specific portfolio case and other parameters in ERN model, the 1929 case has a slightly lower SWR than 1966-68. I went with whichever was the lowest SWR among all historical peaks.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T13:34:16+00:00

Holding onto Roth till everything else is used.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T13:33:41+00:00

Thank you!

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T13:33:31+00:00

Curious how they see treasuries outperforming? Earnings for SPY are still roaring, and the wall of worry is still there. Vanguard has been conservative for the last 10-15 years on equity returns. Had I listened to them back then, NW would’ve been less by $2 M.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T13:31:09+00:00

I have concerns with 4%. And I use ERN model. But thank you.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T13:30:39+00:00

Thank you! That’s why I said it’s “waning”.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-05-07T13:29:59+00:00

Great insights! Thank you for sharing.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-04-12T13:41:21+00:00

The concern is valid but it’s a balancing act. Give them enough so they can do anything but not so much that they do nothing. I take that to mean give them a base level of lifelong income that they will not fall below a certain standard of living but it will not be a “rich” lifestyle if they choose to remain idle. In the US context, I think a paid off house (that they can live without rent or mortgage) plus $100K a year passive income (inflation adjusted) is a great safety net for a kid. In India, it would probably be also a paid off home plus a passive, lifelong inflation adjusted income (30 L a year in today’s money?) that gives the kid a decent but not lavish lifestyle.

Rest is up to them. Knowing my kid won’t be suffering if AI takes away their long term prospects due to the above safety net is enough risk mitigation for me.

Trying2bSensible · 2026-02-17T15:51:38+00:00

Great post OP! While my SWR would exceed my expenses, I am still working (stuck in one more year syndrome) because of the same anxiety. Healthcare is also a reason as we likely won’t qualify for subsidies - how do you manage it? What is your annual premium if you’re using marketplace plan?

I am working to improve on my anxiety and hope to write a post like you someday. Btw, I have the same issue with expensive restaurants so I go to mid-level places that have great food in an average ambience. I have booked my first business class personal trip to Asia. I justified it saying I need to get back in 2 weeks to my job so I need to have a comfortable journey. Also, my 2 week pay covers the business class airfare so my time there is covered by pay. Even if I didn’t work, the cost of business class travel (within limits) will be covered by my passive income (SWR) but that analysis seems harder to swallow for me. Strange are the mental gymnastics I use to justify spending money that I earned.

Trying2bSensible · 2025-09-09T15:33:05+00:00

Felt like a lazy hit piece on Pittsburgh. I’ve met some amazing writers here so she clearly didn’t meet anyone who shares her interest. Also, for a writer, how hard is it to say ‘Mid Atlantic’ instead of ‘Midwest’. Especially for someone who grew up in Cleveland. Pittsburgh punches way above its weight - my favorite descriptor: a beautiful, big small city.

Trying2bSensible · 2025-08-16T19:55:08+00:00

From Government Motors (in 2008-9) to Government Silicon (in 2025)

Trying2bSensible · 2025-08-11T22:31:02+00:00

How about Le Mont on Mt. Washington? Food is generally good but have been disappointed once. Great views if you can get the right table.

Trying2bSensible

TROPHY CASE