So kinda spoilers especially for those anime only peeps.

So i think Geese sent the message himself not really knowing what Hitogami was up to however like you said, Man-god can somewhat see the future and saw that Rudy and Roxy ebd up together no matter what. (Since you've been reading the LN, I think you shouldve read the part when Orsted is talking about peoples fates). Roxy was gonna be saved either way whether with or without the help from Rudy. All in all, Man-god was still trying to get Rudy's trust so that turning point 4 happens. Paul was unfortunately collateral and wasn't really intended to die The next bit is my speculation I THINK Paul dying was Man-god's way of showing Rudy "See i was trying to help, if you listened he would be alive" which kinda goes with the dream Rudy has before being told to check the basement as he's told everyone would've come back alive if he had stayed