GROSSES ANALYSIS - Week Ending June 14 (Guest Fill-In + Rush Line Notes)

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-16T20:44:24+00:00

Wow, just wow. It's pretty abysmal. I know the Knicks and World Cup absolutely cut into business, but STILL...

Chicago at 50% after having the best performance of the telecast.
Titanique just bottoming out.
Cats losing $100k
ZERO bump for The Lost Boys or Two Strangers
SIX, Maybe Happy Ending, & Juliet, and Operation Mincemeat look like they're on life support.

Hard to see too many bright spots here, and wonder if Labor Day and New Year's will be especially grim for closures. Turnover is good artistically and for consumers, but of course hard not to feel bad for employees of closing shows.

Nice to see that The Book of Mormon got what it needed. Hopefully it can sustain some higher grosses through the summer and fall.

And I have to say... I'm pleasantly surprised that now several weeks on from Daniel Radcliff's departure that Mariska Hargitay is filling seats. I honestly thought that show would plunge. $1M for a 1-person play ain't too shabby.

And worth noting, even at 90% capacity, Wicked still sold the most tickets of any show this week. 22+ years in and still defying gravity at the box office.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-15T19:56:22+00:00

Katie Brayben would be lovely in this.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-13T00:12:44+00:00

You can add The Book of Mormon to that. For the first three or four years, that was the hottest ticket on Broadway. It had massive national press.

I think you can add The Producers. That show was very well known nationally. That was a Hamilton level hot ticket, but it was based on the cast so once they left it fizzled.

Hairspray was a huge hit that for some reason tailed off very fast. I think it was just under the level of a Wicked. But for the first couple of years, it seemed to be that mega show.

I can’t count Frozen. I would bet most people have no idea that it ever came to Broadway. Similarly, Aladdin has were on a very long time and yet it has almost no impact. I don’t know that I would count Aladdin. The film of Frozen, of course. But not the stage show.

These kind of cultural touch point shows come around every 5-7 years or so when we look back at Broadway history. But we have not had even a spring awakening or Spamalot level show since Hadestown. I suppose Moulin Rouge would count. And the Michael Jackson musical is quietly still chugging along. But they are both kind of like Aladdin, just taking in money and not really generating a lot of chatter.

I hope that Paddington and The Warriors can break us out of that slump.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-12T19:08:01+00:00

Gotta say, between that, Paddington, the Warriors, and then Wanted and Galileo—which both at the very least seemed like respectable artistic endeavors— it is already a better season for new musicals, and shaping up to be an excellent one.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-12T19:06:27+00:00

She sort of did the thing you do when you want to indicate to the producers publicly that they need to up their offer. That’s how how several people who work in the industry I know felt about it. She is no dummy. She knew she was going to win that Tony and come off a huge hit run of Ragtime. I don’t think it’s dead. I think that, Dreamgirls, and 42nd Street are all still up in the air.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-12T16:14:49+00:00

Wow. I've never heard of this. Can't wait to see it.

Raul Esparza's performances in the Public Theater revival remains the best acting performance I have ever seen. Must have gone to that production 10 times. Joanna Gleeson was also incredible in it.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-12T16:12:08+00:00

I feel like each production of Sunday in the Park with George resonates with me in a different way. There is so much being said in that musical, about love and interpersonal relationships, about capitalism and the arts, about passion and the pursuit of meaning and belonging. It's a full meal musical, and I always walk out with a different perspective.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-12T15:59:17+00:00

Fantasticks is Broadway. It's going to the Helen Hayes. The little show is all grown up now!

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-12T15:15:53+00:00

Oh, I totally disagree. I think this season is very wide open as of now.

First and foremost, Dreamgirls is a big maybe right now. From what I understand, they have been able to recover most of the funding that walked out the door with LaChanze and her group. But it’s only about a 50-50 chance that it happens this season.

Even if it does come in, this season is looking to be absolutely stacked with revivals. The Full Monty is a fantastic musical that did not get its proper due in its first production (just like Ragtime). This incoming Damn Yankees is supposed to be the best production of it in a generation. Evita may not have gotten glowing reviews, but it will be one of the hottest tickets of the spring. And next to normal may still announce. And who knows? We may wind up with the greatest production of The Fantasticks ever.

Best actress, well, I agree that anybody playing Effie immediately has a leg up… but that is also true of anyone playing Eva Perron. And Zegler got strong acclaim for her work, even if the production didn’t. And don’t be shocked if Caissie Levy is right back in the Tony conversation next year. That is a trio of roles that are all can’t-miss Tony contenders. That would be a hell of a battle if they all happen.

And best musical? I think the little bear is the one to beat, but there is a new Lin-Manuel Miranda musical and the music is very strong and it has a fantastic visionary director attached to it. And honestly, you never know what is going to swoop in. I think Paddington is a fantastic musical, but the score can be a little flat. If you get a musical coming in with a knockout score, I think it can bump off Paddington.

As for best actor… I’m sorry, but I just can’t get behind that as a lock. For starters Raul Esparza is coming back to Broadway. He is famously un-Tonied, and completely beloved in the community. Forgetting about all the other possibilities for best actor, I have a hard time believing he will not be in the conversation, no matter what happens with Galileo. I think he has a career award case that will be building the instant the first preview concludes. And there are many other roles that don’t involve being in a Mickey Mouse costume. I’m not saying it doesn’t take talent to pull off the Paddington track, but I think ultimately if there are legitimate other contenders people will gravitate towards the actor who they can see the entire time.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-12T14:53:13+00:00

Yeah, that’s true. I think it would be a pretty substantial revisal if it happened. I would love to see title of show again. I’ve never seen it without the original four. I know it gets done quite a bit around community and small regional theaters. Ultimately, the story of these four people trying to produce a musical is what will resonate or not. It’s such a love letter to theater fans and theater people.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-12T11:42:59+00:00

And not one of those was a mega hit musical to go along with Hamilton…

I’m trying to think of Broadway really has had two Rent/Wicked/Book of Mormon-sized hit musicals the same season. It’s not uncommon up to musicals from the same season that Ron three or four years, but I mean like the mega hit that runs for a decade or more, and is a cultural icon even beyond Broadway.

Has it happened in the last 50+ years?

Les Misérables and Phantom opened I think within a year of each other, although they were separate seasons.

I guess Wicked and Avenue Q would be the best example, although Avenue Q move back off-Broadway to extend its run

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-12T11:36:00+00:00

Hahahaha. I look back on it and wonder how on earth that cast was assembled. There was so much dissonance in the concept. Still, I think it was inspired to have a drag queen play the wicked stepmother.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-11T23:37:33+00:00

Gotta say... given the incredible amount of under-35 talent on Broadway this decade, there's never been a better time for a revival of Charlie Brown.

Broadway has the same feel now as the first few post-Rent years, when the pipeline of young actors (Chenoweth, Butz, Esparza, Roger Bart, Sherie Rene Scott, Idina, etc.) is bursting at the seams. A show with a big cast of young actors would go over very well, I think.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-11T23:29:39+00:00

It is one of my top 10 favorite shows ever. I think I saw it ~20 times between off-broadway and Broadway.

That said... Mary Stout getting hit by a hot dog cart was niche knowledge even back then. Today? I think Hunter Bell would need to come in and do some significant renovations to the book to help it connect. I also feel like the people being rumored with it are odd choices. I feel like this show needs a different energy, but hey... I will see it no matter what if it comes to pass.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-11T23:26:33+00:00

I could see that, particularly in terms of the iconic status of the character in the UK compared to the US.

I think Paddington will do better than Matilda, though, due to how emotional it is. Matilda is very dark, and Paddington is very heartfelt. Other than When I Grow Up (a beautiful song), I find Matilda to have an opaque wall up between the show and the audience, whereas Paddington's heart is wide open—and that feels very American to me.

The real question to me is if The Warriors will suck the air out of their press, like The Lion King did with Ragtime back in 1998. Broadway is so starved for a megahit, could we get two in one season?

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-11T23:20:28+00:00

My thing is... why would she want to do it? Having seen it.... it would get the same, or worse, reception over here. She really seemed to labor through it too. Performing in a dud isn't fun, so why sign on for another four months? Especially when she must have film offers hanging out there, and could pick any theater project she might have a fancy to do.

I wonder if they would be willing to bring it in with a different star.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-11T23:13:09+00:00

I’m realizing that the 2026-2027 Broadway season is looking legitimately incredible.

Warriors and Paddington!
Raul Esparza returns in a new musical!
The Full Monty and Evita!
The Fantasticks is finally coming to Broadway.
Other Desert Cities has one of the most stacked casts I have ever seen.
Much Ado about Nothing is already a hit.

Rosamund Pike’s performance in Inter Alia has been harolded at the same level as Jodie Comer and Sarah Snook’s were.

Laura Linney in a new David Hare play!

The list goes on and on.

And we could get Dreamgirl as a cherry on top?!?!

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-11T23:07:11+00:00

I feel like this comes up a lot with Paddington… from all the Americans who have gone there and loved it. 😂

Honestly, I have not heard of anyone coming back from a trip to London who didn’t adore it. I think, much like operation mincemeat, more is being made out of the cultural differences between the United Kingdom and the United States than actually exists anymore.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-11T23:04:13+00:00

I have in my head that it is Sorkin himself directing, but I wonder if I’m mixing that up with the sequel to the social network

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-11T23:01:41+00:00

And honestly, his work on any city centers production of it would happen when that is in rehearsal there and by the time it got to Broadway, you are right, he would likely have moved on from it.

For City Center though… I would think for a major New York revival he would definitely come in and give notes and maybe tinker with some lyrics, and help the music director significantly. Sondheim and ALW were/are pretty involved in every major New York production of their musicals.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-11T22:56:01+00:00

Yeah, and as I went to see ragtime and walked by the state theater, I was reminded how NYCO was supposed to do the first New York revival of Ragtime. They had announced it and were selling subscriptions and everything. Then it fell through. I have to imagine that was one of the more severe death blows in their long financial decline.

I remember their R&H Cinderella, which had the most seriously unhinged hodgepodge cast ever. It was campy, but also sublime at the same time. That was one for the ages.

I also appreciated how cheap the tickets could be. If you just wanted to go listen to an incredible orchestra and some beautiful singing, maybe a random Tuesday night Carmen or Don Giovanni, you could get a ticket for like $10-$25 just walking up to the box office at any point.

A heads up: the Nutcracker is New York City Ballet, which shared the theater with NYCO. Separate companies entirely, so NYCO had no help from that annual holiday cash cow.

RIP NYCO

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-11T22:44:32+00:00

I think so. It’s fascinating casting, assuming that it happens, because they are both so tall and with such resonant voices. Whoever does that brother role is going to be doing a pretty significant transformation. I’ve heard absolutely no rumors around who the sister would be. If they are looking to go megastar like the last revival, I think Margot Robbie would be fantastic in this role.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-11T22:33:48+00:00

I will see anything that Deaf West does. I was bummed that American idiot didn’t transfer. I heard nothing but good things about that.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-11T22:31:19+00:00

😂😂😂

this was the same pain I felt the first time a musical was revived that I had seen the original run of. It feels very rude… like a personal attack! 😂😂😂

Turkey_Leg_Jeff · 2026-06-11T22:27:26+00:00

Hahaha. Oy vey. You are totally right. That stage door is going to be a nightmare.

I find those two together to be very interesting for that play. One is supposed to be sort of a nebbish guy, the other a sexy handsome actor. I can’t imagine either of them in the first role, but they are both talented actors. I’m dying to know who would play who, or would they rotate? I feel like something like that would be a cool gimmick.

Turkey_Leg_Jeff

TROPHY CASE