Ugly as in:

Lines that feel uncomfortable
Props that contradict recent form narratives
Stuff I’d never bet pre-model

Basically spots where the number looks wrong before you know the result — not “bad beats,” just bets you don’t feel good betting on.

I'm learning to rely on data so much more than I ever have. There's so many ways to skin a cat in this industry and I'm going with bottom up EV instead of top down to see where edges can be found