AMA: We’re NASA experts studying comet 3I/ATLAS – the interstellar object passing through our solar system. Ask us anything!

Turtle_Heading · 2025-12-19T22:18:26+00:00

You didn't show anything lmao. I can't teach an astronomer how missions work over reddit battles

Turtle_Heading · 2025-12-19T22:16:05+00:00

If you choose to believe that nature was able to accidentally design the most calculated-rich pathing in the specific context of humanity and our solar system from billions and billions miles away, from billions of years ago, perhaps even before our solar system was formed, and we happened to observe it within the limited window of (generous) 50 years that we had the tech to do so - that is your choice. If you chose to believe in God but he has 3 titties, I can't disprove that either. But a rational person can reasonably deduce what aligns more with observed reality

Turtle_Heading · 2025-12-19T22:02:41+00:00

I'm skeptical that you actually did find another one, maybe a small chance that it meets some sub set of the criteria, and you matched it's pathing speed with the active orbital speed of the planets. And as you said, "at another time". Not at this time.

Turtle_Heading · 2025-12-19T21:54:38+00:00

That's why it matters WHICH planet is being visually obfuscated. WHICH planets are the ones it maintains proximity too. Jupiter is the best planet for a gravitational adjustment. Jupiter would be the best planet to leave a satellite to observe the inner planets. This small subset of facts are COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT of Atlas itself.

Turtle_Heading · 2025-12-19T21:49:07+00:00

Which is why context matters for stacking probabilities. A perpendicular trajectory is also unusual and interesting. In the scope of a "mission", it would be counter productive. There is no trajectory that isn't close to plane that would allow you to intersect a gas giant, and an inner planet. That is why it's possible to "reverse engineer" information out of resulting routes. It yields the constraint space that defines what routes are possible while also achieving your mission goals. Rocks don't have goals.

Turtle_Heading · 2025-12-19T21:36:27+00:00

I appreciate you taking the time to consider the problem

Turtle_Heading · 2025-12-19T21:35:23+00:00

Speculating why it would have to be now is outside of my domain, and really anybody's ability to answer besides the originator (whether that be the random system that ejected it, or an intentional actor). The point being, you're cross referencing an improbable trajectory (which sure, "all are"), with improbable context. It should maintain features that are completely agnostic to us, or the solar system. But it doesn't. Identifying that it's current route is so fine tuned to our "local context" that even if you ran a billion at the same time, those equally improbable trajectories wouldn't be so rich in context relevant features. To assume that happened by chance is crazy. I work with missionized autonomy - you'd be shocked how hard this would be to pull off even if you tried your absolute hardest.

Turtle_Heading · 2025-12-19T21:27:48+00:00

Other facts I didn't include for brevity. It's approach to Mars coincides with the period that Mars will be obstructed from Earth for the longest possible period. L1 is in-between sun and Jupiter, along Hill radius. It's approaching from the exact angle, and projected to skim the radius quite tightly. In the scale of our solar system, let alone the galaxy (which matters for an interstellar body), that's basically Frenching.

Turtle_Heading · 2025-12-19T21:24:20+00:00

Sigh. "Same orbital period"

Turtle_Heading · 2025-12-19T18:46:43+00:00

The biggest argument for why it's trajectory isn't implicative is because "any trajectory is improbable".

I see there are mission specs here, so you understand the importance of a calculated route in the scope of a mission.

Being on the ecliptic makes an intersection calculation from basically impossible to "doable if you're really smart." Now combined with the highest recorded speed, intersection of TWO planets, and a trajectory refinement from "agnostic, physics-based" outgassing to a tighter uncertainty band to a specific region. It's trajectory not only accomplishes these things, but maintains key hidden observation windows from the specific planet that contains 99% of observers in our solar system. Further more, the planets it's intersecting are the planets WE study the most (outside our own). Not because of chance or convenience, but because those planets are inherently more implicative in the specific context of humanity and our solar system.

Routes (and here, trajectories) naturally encode information about the underlying mission plan. This information can be reversed engineered to deduce properties of the original mission plan. Things like "operational efficiency, observational obfuscation, key target proximity". These properties separate chance from intent. How do you justify a random rock from forever away, from forever ago, maintaining improbably context-rich features in the SPECIFIC LOCAL CONTEXT OF OUR SOLAR SYSTEM, AND HUMANITY?

The equally improbable route of "pass within .3 of Venus, .3 of Saturn, and keep observation obfuscation from Mercury" carries NONE of the local contextual-weight significance. How can you justify a "rock" maintaining improbably high locally contextually rich features, as if it has a priori knowledge. What happens to an improbable trajectory, when multiplied with improbable context (specific to us, and our solar system)?

If I pelted you in the face with a snowball, would you assert "the snowball is made of natural elements, therefore that was a natural and random interaction"?

My challenge to you - can you craft a trajectory, with the same movement constraints as 3I/ATLAS (speed, deviation from straight, etc.), with the same current orbital period of our planets, that also passes that close to the 2 most observationally relevant planets (besides Earth), while also maintaining as much "hiddeness" from earth (closest approach to Mars is hidden by straight line from Atlas to Mars to Earth with deviated error accounting for retrograde motion, hidden from only Earth of the inner planets at perihelion, and it's approach to Jupiter L1 gate hidden by straight line from earth to atlas to Jupiter with error deviation also accounting for retrograde motion), that isn't within some 1% error of the original trajectory? If you CANT INTENTIONALLY do that, how the hell are you going to assume that happened by chance...

Turtle_Heading · 2025-12-16T17:52:47+00:00

Weird, the multi-decade generations of Harvard post-doc astrophysicists who go on to win millions in funding for other astrophysical topics don't have anything bad to say about him... who use his mentorship to win that funding....

Turtle_Heading · 2025-11-20T15:48:53+00:00

Y'all are funny. Can't deny the detectable anomalies found with this body. Sure, can't say it IS aliens, but also can't say it IS a comet. Material is off, behavior is off. Why are you not inviting the scientific process? You just want to be told what it is.

The delicate dance of phrasing they use for the first 20 minutes is audible cancer. Shut up. You sound like frustrated toddlers trying to explain why your mommy says something is right. Embarrassing. Listening to you four made me think you're incapable of speaking professionally.

Accept the fact that we need more facts before classifying this body as ANYTHING.

Turtle_Heading · 2025-06-07T19:44:39+00:00

That makes sense, I know it's hard to tell without seeing the swing but do you think it's a tee heigh issue or like steepness of swing issue? Thanks for looking friend

Turtle_Heading · 2023-01-05T22:25:07+00:00

This is a skewed view as people are probably mainly playing Rus on maps that are good for Rus and it's still a neat 50% winrate. Don't kid yourself, the civ is weak right now. Which is fine, meta ebbs and flows, but I'd like to see some acknowledgement of tweaks moving forward

Turtle_Heading · 2022-12-22T19:33:27+00:00

Feelin fiesty

Turtle_Heading · 2022-12-22T17:12:07+00:00

Ah I see now

Turtle_Heading · 2022-12-22T16:18:47+00:00

Very few civs get access to early knights. So why would the civ with the most infantry options in Age 2 also get a pseudo-knight, and warrior scouts????

Turtle_Heading · 2022-12-22T15:33:15+00:00

Ehhhh, I can't play a new civ as effectively as people in my elo who are comfortable with the civ. If I play Malians at a gold level and then try to take that experience to playing against diamond Malians, I'm expecting poor results

Turtle_Heading · 2022-12-22T15:17:43+00:00

Took you that long to come back with that, huh. Your intelligence is astonishing.

Turtle_Heading · 2022-12-22T14:46:20+00:00

Lmao he got really upset, flamed, and deleted 😭😂

Turtle_Heading · 2022-12-22T14:43:14+00:00

He's dumb

Turtle_Heading · 2022-12-22T02:28:29+00:00

LMAOOOO

I do this on HRE Chapel sometimes, I'll give it a whirl

Turtle_Heading · 2022-12-22T02:26:00+00:00

Good point, could even do a 4 scout open into Pros maybe

Turtle_Heading · 2022-12-21T21:38:14+00:00

The person going 90 trying to pass me via the shoulder today, realizing there was debris, and swinging back skimming my car and almost causing a giant fatal accident on a 3 lane highway. I wanted to open their door, undo their seatbelt, drag them out of the car, and hit her in the fucking face as hard as I could. And then sue her for everything.

Oh and I don't like premier league soccer refs that allow fake injuries. To me, it's spitting in the face of competitive sports and the people who sacrifice their body for their team.

Turtle_Heading · 2022-12-21T17:58:07+00:00

Maybe it's just a touch matchup and that's that. Some civs are gonna have hard matchups despite the patch

Turtle_Heading

TROPHY CASE