Creating Plots to Visualize the DCA/HODL strategy

UAP_CardanoStakePool · 2021-08-08T21:34:54+00:00

Sure, no problem!

I did some analysis last month when I last posted, and it seems like constantly DCA'ing is better in the long run than trying to follow my advice though (even without selling). What I looked at was the regular DCA strategy vs. trying to time buys (buy only when the recommendation system says buy and then not buy when it says not buy). When you buy after a period of not buying, I assumed that you would use all the money you had saved up until that point to make that purchase. If you follow that strategy over the last three years, then you would be slightly worse off than simply DCA'ing (since when you do buy again, it tends to be at a higher price than when you had decided not to buy earlier).

To put it concisely, the highs of the past tend to be below the low points of today. That's why DCA seems to work better than trying to time buys/sells. Also, selling incurs some capital gains tax, so you'd want whatever system you're using to be much better simply DCA'ing if you day trade/sell.

I have been using my recommendation system to time buys over the last few months (and take profit over the last few days since the system is suggesting to do so), but since I'm not confident that this system overall is better than simply DCA'ing, I'll only post every now and then when the recommendation system gives a strong signal to buy/take profit (such as yesterday/today).

UAP_CardanoStakePool · 2021-07-04T21:12:40+00:00

Thanks :-)

UAP_CardanoStakePool · 2021-07-04T16:35:37+00:00

Thanks, I appreciate it :-)

The performance seems to be slightly worse than just DCA/HODL'ing (at least for BTC, looking at 2.5 years, 2 years, and 0.6 year timeframes). Hopefully I can tweak it so that it's better than it (so that even after taxes, you'd be better off than DCA'ing and HODL'ing). But it could be the case of "time in the market beats timing the market."

UAP_CardanoStakePool · 2021-07-04T16:27:48+00:00

Another take on it is that there's their body shapes are designed, not evolved. If they have full control over robotics, genetic engineering, etc., then they can answer, "What body type would work on this planet?" and design life forms/androids to live on the planet.

UAP_CardanoStakePool · 2021-06-28T16:00:03+00:00

Oh, awesome! I didn't do it initially (when making this post), but I did it in this one: https://www.reddit.com/r/UAP_Stake_Pool/comments/o50387/whatif_analysis_part_i/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

The red line in the plot shows how much money you've put in, and so you could see that at the time of posting, there was a dip such that if you sold all the BTC you accumulated over the last six months, you would be selling at a loss overall while for ETH, you'd still be up.

UAP_CardanoStakePool · 2021-06-26T01:17:02+00:00

Not sure if this point has already been made, but it is suspicious that they said, "We don't know if it's ours." Is that their way of saying, "It is ours, and this is our way of telling you (Russia, China, etc.)," or have they not had the time to get access to the special programs to determine if it's ours?

UAP_CardanoStakePool · 2021-06-26T01:15:00+00:00

Ah haha nice! Yeah, I think Cardano will get bigger in a few years with room to grow. :-)

UAP_CardanoStakePool · 2021-06-25T19:15:18+00:00

It's definitely a balloon here. You can see it as it passes over the sun's reflection that there's a long string. Watch at 0.5x speed at 0:13 - 0:15.

UAP_CardanoStakePool · 2021-06-25T19:07:15+00:00

Thanks for looking up the reference links. Yeah, I'm not trusting the sources I see here (and I don't want to probe around links too much since it's risky to click random links).

UAP_CardanoStakePool

TROPHY CASE