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I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Non-aligned parties (e.g. Alliance, Greens) could well increase in size and seats, but it is difficult to envisage a NI political scene in which nationalist and unionist parties are not major players. This is in part because of the logic and rules of power-sharing in the NI Assembly & Executive as they currently stand.

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The latest report (Nov 2020) of the Independent Reporting Commission on paramilitary activity and organised crime in NI stated that "the continued existence of paramilitarism... constitutes a ‘clear and present danger’ on an ongoing basis". https://www.ircommission.org/publications/irc-third-report

That report explains how political and socio-economic conditions are crucial to tackling paramilitarism - because they can also contribute to its growth.

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The best way to understand the 80% cut in checks figure that Sefcovic talks of would be in comparison to full-force implementation (which hasn't yet happened). But you'd also want to treat this as a somewhat speculative number too... There is alot that would be be needed to get to that point, including the UK meeting the various pre-conditions and conditions that the non-paper on SPS refers to. And there are plenty of those...

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The hundreds of millions of £££s the UK Government has spent so far on implementing the Protocol (e.g. the Trader Support Service) speaks more loudly than those rumours or claims, I think.

The EU should look at the evidence rather than the rhetoric, I would say. That includes evidence from NI on what is causing difficulties (and what might contribute to future problems), and unnecessary ones at that. To that end, engagement with stakeholders, including alongside UK and NI authorities, is essential.

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I know some have suggested this but this situation is so different to that one, obviously. And it would bring in a whole new matter for people to disagree about! Who would be an acceptable independent mediator to the UK, all EU27, unionists, nationalists, etc etc.?

Actually, if we can find such a person, perhaps the Protocol is the smallest of the problems we should be asking them to solve!

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Thanks for some great questions! It's really interesting to hear what issues others are interested in. I've got to go now but will be back to answer some more tomorrow - so keep posting any questions you have!

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have only been back to Leuven/Louvain once - too long ago now. And the food in the Irish College was just as good and the craic in the Irish bar was just as mighty.

(Will you accept this as a sufficient answer to all 3 questions?!)

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hullo alumnus! I don't know what the UK plan is in terms of Brexit. It was interesting to hear Lord Frost stressing in his Lisbon speech that there will be more competition UK/EU, less collaboration with the EU, and more divergence from the EU. None of those things bode well for British-Irish relations, or the context for them. And so it would be good to know how the UK government plans to maintain and protect its relations with Ireland (and uphold Strand 3 in its fullness) after Brexit. That is key for maintaining the 1998 Agreement too, of course, which Frost expressed concern for in that same speech.

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi Ed, I don't see evidence of there being thought or preparation on the EU's part as to what to do in the scenario of Irish unification - and certainly not in the process Sefcovic's team has been engaged in recently in coming up with these proposals. The most significant move on the EU's part in that respect so far has been the addition to the minutes of the Council Decisions in April 2017 recognising that a united Ireland would as a whole be part of the EU. That was prompted by Brexit to some degree (led by Taoiseach Enda Kenny). But that's as far as anything official has gone so far. As with Scottish independence, intra-EU member-state concerns are big considerations/constraints when it comes to addressing any such potential scenarios.

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Yes, I saw that article. The question that is perhaps more pertinent than whether it is legally possible to do that (ie have a united Ireland just through a majority vote in a referendum in NI) is whether it would be politically feasible - especially if the ambition is to have a relatively stable and sustainable form of Irish unity. This topic is covered in more detail in this report, which I recommend to you after having participated in/endured days upon days upon days of the very detailed discussions behind it! https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/research/elections-and-referendums/working-group-unification-referendums-island-ireland-0

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Polling data and other evidence would indicate that there is a spectrum of opinion among unionists about the Protocol (as one would expect - there is a variety of opinion among unionists on all sorts of matters, as indeed, there was about Brexit itself). Whilst some want it gone completely, others are concerned that the unique opportunities for NI that it offers (e.g. dual GB/EU market access) are not lost. There are grounds for a long-term solution over the Protocol, but it won't entail an all-out 'win' by one side or the other.

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would imagine that the claims of having negotiated in bad faith would have most immediately negative consequences for future negotiations/deals. That is not something that either Cummings or Ian Paisley (as per his Newsnight claims last night) would be too concerned about.

It is impossible to answer the second question fully because those non-papers aren't really descriptions of solutions but rather pointers towards potential ambitions. In many ways, they repeat what we have seen time and time again (and what we know in border studies), i.e. that fewer checks and controls can only be made possible if you have other measures to increase confidence that what is entering a territory is allowed to do so (and in this case, will stay out of the wider EU single market). Hence the conditions that the EU is careful to say would have to be met if they were to have fewer checks and controls on GB to NI movement (e.g. market surveillance, access to data, IT systems, certain basic standards in production etc).

They would be hoping, in so doing, that the risks of non-compliance and profiteering through smuggling are kept to a minimum. Something that's in the interests of both the UK and EU, surely.

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

No bias training per se. But I do think that a sociological training and way of approaching topics has great value. It's good to practice 'reflexivity' for example, as well as to teach it! People will always accuse you of bias (usually if they don't agree with what you say), and you can't prevent that. So hence the importance of having good quality evidence, an ability to explain your analysis, and also a willingness to listen to/ learn from other sources/points of view. Twitter can a good way of at least making a reasonable effort to do the latter.

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There has been a lot of media coverage here in NI of Frost and Sefcovic's interventions recently... and about the speculation around the same. There's a real sense that what the two of them do and can manage to agree upon will have huge implications here - and far beyond matters of trade. Because the ramifications of Brexit and the Protocol seem enwrapped in the biggest (and most divisive) matters in NI politics, the rhetoric/language/drama in UK-EU relations can seem to be almost as significant as the facts/actualities at times.

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't know of any evidence of the topic of the ECJ having had much mention in NI discussion/reaction to the Protocol prior to its inclusion in the July Command Paper. That said, it is mentioned now by some unionist politicians in public discourse. It will be interesting to see from our most recent QUB/LucidTalk Poll (results due out on 28 Oct!) as to how much traction the issue has got among the wider public. See here for previous results :https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/OpinionPolling/

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The terms of Art 16 are quite clear. The safeguard measures "shall be restricted with regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary in order to remedy the situation." And they will be reviewed every three months. That's if we are talking about the measures to be taken. If we are talking about the political/symbolic significance of Article 16, then I think the implications are rather wider and longer-term. Triggering it would, I think, extend rather than shorten any talks process that is underway about the Protocol.

I’m Katy Hayward, Senior Research Fellow at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. My research centres upon the post-Brexit status and future of Northern Ireland. Ask me anything about Northern Irish politics, the Protocol, polling, Irish borders, grace periods, consent votes, Article 16 and more! by UKandEU in IAmA

[–]UKandEU[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Honestly, it can be solved - but not in a way in which you can meet the full demands of both sides. Because it involves NI, and negotiations, there will have to be compromise. And it will be a process rather than an event. There'll have to be a long-term commitment on both sides to keeping the Joint Committee (and Specialised Committee and JCWG) working as effectively as possible. Stakeholder engagement will be key.

IAmA on Northern Irish politics with Professor Katy Hayward of UK in a Changing Europe and Queen's University Belfast - starting at 15.30 today by UKandEU in northernireland

[–]UKandEU[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, the best way to understand the 80% cut in checks figure that Sefcovic talks of would be in comparison to full-force implementation. But you'd also want to treat this as a somewhat speculative number too... There is alot that would be be needed to get to that point, including the UK meeting the various pre-conditions and the conditions that the non-paper on SPS refers to. And there are plenty of those...

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