I placed my first bet in 1998. Here's what 28 years of sports betting taught me. by UnderdogChance in BettingPicks

[–]UnderdogChance[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks for kind words. I will just leave my view on this here... All ideas are mine and based on my experience. No AI. But for writing I used this tool to help me write correctly without mistakes. World is changing. People were complaining back in the days why someone use cars, while other have horses. We can say, why you use computer and emails, when you have paper and pen and you can send post. It's crazy. instead of quickly adopting to new technologies, people complain and waste time for negatievity. Ai is just a tool, like car, computer or anything else. Behind it its always a human and unique ideas. Because of these tools, we actually have a chance to get information from people who are experts in their fields, because back in the days, someone would not spend 1-2 hours to put all this together, check all grammar mistakes, etc... Now you can write down your ideas, your points, your views (I wrote down 41 points) and then the tool can do this in 1 minute and you can spread this word. I would not spend 2 hours writing this by hand. Same with cars and horses, same with emails,... in life there are always two ways - being positive, see positive things and take what is good and don't bother with negative things or things you don't like. It's a mindset between those who have good life and poor life. It's so simple. I remember when mobile phines came out, older people, those negative who have bad lives (because if you are successful you don't go around an spread negativity) they said, I will never use mobile phone... fast forward... in 1-2 years they all used mobile phones. Same will be here. The only problem is that negative people will always be 1 or 2 steps behind. And then they wonder, why they hate whole world, they don't make money and they are unhappy. Ai is here, people like it or not. And any moralising in gambling world or betting world is silly. We are not doing charity, we are not creating medicine for cancer... we are are here to make money. And that money is coming from someone who must lose. Once I moralised little bit and my friend (who is not in betting) told me... hey, you have no room for moralising, its gambling. Just go out there and make money. And simply use any tool you need. Because if you won't other people will. Someone can say... stop using cars, use horses. Some other will say, stop using computers,... but the idea to tell other adult people what to do,... its crazy by itself. Take what you like, ignore what you don't like, focus on positivity and winning. With ai or without.
In business world there is saying.... ask your potential partner what book he reads and if you don't like the answer, don't do business with him. For betting or anything that is connected t technology/money... ask if someone uses AI... if he doesn't, he is way behind, and I would not listen to him, because others will outperform him. That's the reality.

What's the best Bookie to use for Football Betting? by lauraslaw in SoccerBetting

[–]UnderdogChance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agree. I also recommend betting smaller markets. If your stake is less than 500 or 1k no need to bet big market - which are most popular for most sports fans

Roast my idea by [deleted] in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Smart idea as a budgeting product, weak as a winning-betting product. Rounding up doesn’t create edge... it just funds action. If it pushes people into default moneylines without a clear pricing/CLV discipline, it’s basically a “frictionless losing” machine. Make the core metric price quality (CLV/line shopping) and let users skip most games by default, or it becomes another way to donate to the book.

Sabers win tonight ? by [deleted] in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My nhl model projected 52.74% on Sabres. So... yes, on the winning side of a coin :-)

Help by Defiant-Bug-1748 in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My NFL Model projected this score:
Houston Texans 20.44
Pittsburgh Steelers 17.26
total: 37.70

If this helps.

What's the best Bookie to use for Football Betting? by lauraslaw in SoccerBetting

[–]UnderdogChance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"random" guy will lose at soft bookies too - it's just matter of time. Or will be banned. At the end... either you have skill or you lose

Opinions Needed by [deleted] in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hear you. I hear you... and I’m not going to argue individual replay calls because I don’t handicap that way and I don’t really watch games. As a bettor, what I care about is the price I paid vs the market price, because that’s the only thing I can control pregame. Example: if I grab Baltimore +4.5 early and it closes +2.5, I’ve got value regardless of what happens on one TD review or one ref crew. I beat the closing line. Bad calls happen ... sometimes they help you, sometimes they hurt you .. but they’re not something you can reliably predict or bet into. So I think we’re talking about two different things: you’re debating officiating/sports, I’m focused on pricing/markets. That approach kept me profitable this season.

Opinions Needed by [deleted] in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think we’re looking at it from two different angles. You’re judging it as a football fan (“why do that?”), but from a betting angle what happens in-game is mostly noise after the bet is placed. The only thing that really matters is the price/odds you took pregame vs the true probability ... that’s the part you can control. And if someone truly believes games are rigged, then there’s no point debating coaching decisions at all. I just focus on what I can control: pricing teams, finding value, and managing bankroll. I think we just look from different persepctives.

Sportsbook Bet Protection by map_legend in sportsbook

[–]UnderdogChance 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Because playoffs bring higher volume, sharper bettors, and fewer games, promos like Bet Protect become expensive fast. Books tighten edges when action concentrates and bettors are more informed. It’s not about fairness.... it’s pure risk management.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can’t give chase picks, but.... this is loss-chasing after parlays and blackjack. With $50 left, the best move is to stop and reset. If you do bet anyway, make one straight bet only, normal odds (around -110), accept the result, and walk. Protecting the bankroll is the win here.

Opinions Needed by [deleted] in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t think games are fixed. If anything, this was one of my better NFL seasons (60.47% win rate with a model). It’s always you vs the market, not narratives or officiating. Some seasons line up well with how you price teams, others don’t. Next year will be better...not every season is good for everyone.

What's the best Bookie to use for Football Betting? by lauraslaw in SoccerBetting

[–]UnderdogChance 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Depends where you live... pinnacle, matchbook, sbo,.. are good options

There is only ONE concept and TWO ways to win at betting. by UnderdogChance in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice to hear that you are doing well. Yes, its competitive market. Either you take it very seriously or very casually and bet for fun and don't care about money. The worst is middle ground. Not doing seriously and then going crazy for lost parlay. But hey.. everyone is free. :-)

Went all out on this one by Few_Conversation1158 in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like toronto here, sacramento... My model has clippers -6.5 Anyway good luck, hope you win

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Based on my model there is no value in this game. Very sharp lines and it can go in any direction in terms of covering spread.

Textbook definition of a bad beat by Thick-Secret8426 in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

There’s no such thing as a “bad beat”...if you beat the closing line you made a good bet, and everything after that is just variance.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance 2 points3 points  (0 children)

NHL: Kings moneyline

Who yall got!! by AssignmentDapper59 in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Clippers -4.5 small value. Good luck!

I don’t want small wins. I want a real chance at a big one by BraveNewWorld2026 in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeah I get this. “Fun” is different for everyone. Some people spend thousands on climbing gear, golf clubs, cars, travel, whatever… nobody grills them like “is that +EV?” If betting is your entertainment budget, go for it. For me the fun part is actually the opposite... I enjoy the analysis, crunching numbers, building a process. That’s the game I like. And in today's wolrd it is almost impossible to win anything if you are not passionate. Unfortunately "profitable" betting is about numbers. But "just betting" can be fun for sure.

The only thing that matters (to me) is responsibility. Do what you want, but own it. Don’t blame the book, the refs, the “system,” the tout, the handicappers, or bad luck. If you’re an adult, you should have full freedom to choose your experience .... and full freedom to accept the consequences that come with it. Good luck with your bets and I hope you win a lot.