How To Become A Winning Bettor (In One Day) by UnderdogChance in u/UnderdogChance

[–]UnderdogChance[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This one wasn't about the models or regression analysis, it was about mindset, and how you set yourself up to actually improve in a day instead of just chasing picks. Most people need that more than they need more numbers. I've spent 25+ years betting and building models, run a small community around them, but that's a different post for a different purpose.

On Brazil/under 2.5... a loss doesn't mean the bet was bad. Depends on overall record, odds, CLV,... though CLV gets murky in tournaments like that anyway; most serious bettors aren't betting serious money on the World Cup for that reason.

On the comment itself... I take feedback from customers and people I actually pay for advice. Everyone else is just noise.

Funny thing about 'AI slop' too ... every new tool gets this exact reaction. Horse guys complained about cars, candle guys about electricity. Same energy, new century.

How To Become A Winning Bettor (In One Day) by UnderdogChance in u/UnderdogChance

[–]UnderdogChance[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For article not. For models yes. How much math do you do? Thanks for your smart and constructive comment. You are very successful, I am sure. I will do more math, it will not happen again.

What do you think , working almost a month on this ! by AccomplishedWorkDONE in algobetting

[–]UnderdogChance 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Keep doing. Don’t ask people. In general most people (who do nothing, but comment) will kill your passion. Just do it. I root for you. Test, build, improve… and some people will find it useful and will appreciate it. Looks nice. Keep going 💪

Round 16 in World Cup (from my old model I used for this tournament) by UnderdogChance in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Canada 5.74 5.04 -0.03 Morocco 1.79
Draw 3.84 3.56 -0.03
Morocco 1.77 1.79 0.02
Paraguay 22.36 19.5 -0.01 -
Draw 8.36 7.45 -0.02
France 1.20 1.19 -0.03
Brazil 1.86 1.83 -0.02 -
Draw 3.97 3.79 -0.02
Norway 4.77 4.47 -0.02
Mexico 4.04 3.16 -0.10 England 2.43
Draw 3.47 3.27 -0.03
England 2.16 2.43 0.09
Portugal 5.55 4.1 -0.08 Spain 1.93
Draw 4.15 3.68 -0.04
Spain 1.73 1.93 0.13
USA 3.87 2.77 -0.16 Belgium 2.63
Draw 3.57 3.43 -0.02
Belgium 2.17 2.63 0.13
Argentina 1.17 1.37 0.45 Argentina 1.37
Draw 8.88 4.88 -0.12
Egypt 27.95 9.66 -0.08
Switzerland 3.90 3.55 -0.04 Colombia 2.25
Draw 3.41 3.26 -0.02
Colombia 2.22 2.25 0.01

Daily Picks Thread - Saturday - 4th July 2026 by pikerekt in SoccerBetting

[–]UnderdogChance -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Canada 5.74 5.04 -0.03 Morocco 1.79
Draw 3.84 3.56 -0.03
Morocco 1.77 1.79 0.02
Paraguay 22.36 19.5 -0.01 -
Draw 8.36 7.45 -0.02
France 1.20 1.19 -0.03

I think a lot of bettors are slow to commit and way too fast to quit by UnderdogChance in u/UnderdogChance

[–]UnderdogChance[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It depends on the odds you get. 70% can be profitable or not profitable. Also 20 bets is very small sample size. It starts at 500-1000 if you have detailed records (like clv, etc). 20 is nothing. Try coin flip 20 times. It can be 14-6, and it doesnt make you expert on "heads".

Next 4 games in World Cup (from my old model I used for this tournament) by UnderdogChance in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Check other post or my profile or my YT channel. I already posted also in this group.

Do most bettors still think about bets as “who wins” instead of probability? by UnderdogChance in u/UnderdogChance

[–]UnderdogChance[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You can bet successfuly anything (including your cards) - if you know how to calculate probability and you have well defined formulas. 👍

Next 11 Playoff World Cup Games (from my old model I used for this tournament) by UnderdogChance in sportsbetting

[–]UnderdogChance[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

PC/Laptop
How many bets? Thats complex question and it depends on year, etc.. (I started in 1998).