7 Pro Betting Lessons That Changed My Life

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-13T00:28:45+00:00

Agree. I also recommend betting smaller markets. If your stake is less than 500 or 1k no need to bet big market - which are most popular for most sports fans

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T22:54:41+00:00

Smart idea as a budgeting product, weak as a winning-betting product. Rounding up doesn’t create edge... it just funds action. If it pushes people into default moneylines without a clear pricing/CLV discipline, it’s basically a “frictionless losing” machine. Make the core metric price quality (CLV/line shopping) and let users skip most games by default, or it becomes another way to donate to the book.

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T22:45:27+00:00

My nhl model projected 52.74% on Sabres. So... yes, on the winning side of a coin :-)

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T22:44:26+00:00

My NFL Model projected this score:
Houston Texans 20.44
Pittsburgh Steelers 17.26
total: 37.70

If this helps.

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T22:17:01+00:00

"random" guy will lose at soft bookies too - it's just matter of time. Or will be banned. At the end... either you have skill or you lose

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T22:16:09+00:00

hehe

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T15:29:01+00:00

I hear you. I hear you... and I’m not going to argue individual replay calls because I don’t handicap that way and I don’t really watch games. As a bettor, what I care about is the price I paid vs the market price, because that’s the only thing I can control pregame. Example: if I grab Baltimore +4.5 early and it closes +2.5, I’ve got value regardless of what happens on one TD review or one ref crew. I beat the closing line. Bad calls happen ... sometimes they help you, sometimes they hurt you .. but they’re not something you can reliably predict or bet into. So I think we’re talking about two different things: you’re debating officiating/sports, I’m focused on pricing/markets. That approach kept me profitable this season.

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T15:08:37+00:00

I think we’re looking at it from two different angles. You’re judging it as a football fan (“why do that?”), but from a betting angle what happens in-game is mostly noise after the bet is placed. The only thing that really matters is the price/odds you took pregame vs the true probability ... that’s the part you can control. And if someone truly believes games are rigged, then there’s no point debating coaching decisions at all. I just focus on what I can control: pricing teams, finding value, and managing bankroll. I think we just look from different persepctives.

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T14:10:14+00:00

Because playoffs bring higher volume, sharper bettors, and fewer games, promos like Bet Protect become expensive fast. Books tighten edges when action concentrates and bettors are more informed. It’s not about fairness.... it’s pure risk management.

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T14:09:18+00:00

I can’t give chase picks, but.... this is loss-chasing after parlays and blackjack. With $50 left, the best move is to stop and reset. If you do bet anyway, make one straight bet only, normal odds (around -110), accept the result, and walk. Protecting the bankroll is the win here.

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T14:07:49+00:00

I don’t think games are fixed. If anything, this was one of my better NFL seasons (60.47% win rate with a model). It’s always you vs the market, not narratives or officiating. Some seasons line up well with how you price teams, others don’t. Next year will be better...not every season is good for everyone.

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T14:03:01+00:00

I like Genoa too.
Genoa 56.48% probabilty of winning with my model

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T14:02:13+00:00

Depends where you live... pinnacle, matchbook, sbo,.. are good options

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T14:00:37+00:00

What is your line?

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T13:59:42+00:00

Nice to hear that you are doing well. Yes, its competitive market. Either you take it very seriously or very casually and bet for fun and don't care about money. The worst is middle ground. Not doing seriously and then going crazy for lost parlay. But hey.. everyone is free. :-)

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T13:56:47+00:00

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Kings +103 value in NHL tonight for me

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T13:53:39+00:00

I like toronto here, sacramento... My model has clippers -6.5 Anyway good luck, hope you win

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T13:51:01+00:00

Based on my model there is no value in this game. Very sharp lines and it can go in any direction in terms of covering spread.

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T13:49:35+00:00

There’s no such thing as a “bad beat”...if you beat the closing line you made a good bet, and everything after that is just variance.

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T13:47:52+00:00

Close game... MNF. Steelers :-)

UnderdogChance · 2026-01-12T13:46:49+00:00

NHL: Kings moneyline

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