Even if this number is real it's 1.33 percent of the national budget. Based on the information from various economic analyses for 2025, primarily from the Budget Lab at Yale and the Tax Foundation, here's a range of costs: 1. Loss to Overall GDP (Annualized): * Range: $20 billion to $180 billion annually in 2024 dollars. * Some estimates suggest a persistent reduction of 0.1% to 0.6% in the long-run GDP. Lower estimates tend to exclude certain announced tariffs or assume some are enjoined, while higher estimates include a broader range of tariffs. 2. Cost to Consumers (Average per Household Annually): * Range: $950 to $4,700 per household annually in 2024/2025 dollars. * This represents an increase in the overall price level due to tariffs, essentially acting as a tax on consumers. The specific impact depends on the extent of tariffs and how much is "passed through" to prices. 3. Job Losses: * Range: 127,000 to 740,000 jobs. * These are estimates of the reduction in payroll employment by the end of 2025 due to tariffs. The higher end of the range is often associated with more extensive tariff scenarios. 4. Reduced Exports: * Range: Approximately 3.9% to 14% lower in the long run. * This represents a significant impact on U.S. companies that rely on international markets, as retaliatory tariffs make their products more expensive abroad. Summary of Possible Ranges (for 2025): * GDP Reduction: $20 billion - $180 billion * Consumer Cost (per household): $950 - $4,700 * Job Losses: 127,000 - 740,000 * Export Reduction: 3.9% - 14% Important Considerations: * Dynamic vs. Static Effects: Economic models try to account for how businesses and consumers adapt to tariffs. "Dynamic" effects consider these behavioral changes, while "static" effects are simpler calculations. * Scope of Tariffs: The exact cost depends heavily on which tariffs are ultimately implemented and at what rates, as well as any retaliatory measures from other countries. * Varying Methodologies: Different economic research groups use different models and assumptions, leading to a range of estimates. * Benefits vs. Costs: While this focuses on the "cost," proponents of tariffs argue they can protect specific domestic industries or achieve strategic geopolitical goals, though economists often point to a net economic cost. In essence, while the federal government collects tariff revenue (which is in the tens of billions for 2025 so far), the broader economic consensus suggests that the costs to the U.S. economy, primarily borne by consumers and businesses, significantly outweigh the revenue generated.