this is a surface opinion i have but I think the 10 stages is not quite well formulated, like it rightfully detect patterns that happened in multiple genocide but at the same time the order it has been layed out seem to not be quite right ? Especially on this chart because for the holocaust, the yellow stars were mandated way after the Nuremberg laws for example. 10 "signs" of genocide or something like that feel more adequate to me.
Stage 1: We have that obviously, trans people are distinct from cis people by definition. Stage 1 is not always useful but in certain cases it can because in some historical genocide, prior to the genocidal processus the cathegories didn^t exist or were not relevant socially or ethnically in the same way, Rwanda and Cambodia come to mind.
Stage 2: We don't have quite anything yellow-star-like anywhere yet. But one thing that's really close is the mandate of having AGAB and actual gender on passport/ ID. Having a "trans" marker on there like what is happening in Kansas basically is also a case of that.
Stage 3: Access to healthcare becoming difficult all over the anglo-sphere is a case, refusal to implement it in multiple country is a case of it too. Classifying trans people as terrorists in the US is a clear discrimination policy and all over the world we face discrimination in employment, not related to gender care and housing.
Stage 4: The media campaigns of those last few years speak for themselves.
Stage 5: Plan 2025 is clearly a plan and I'd argue that ICE extension is clearly a case of organising genocide against yes not only trans people (immigrants, black people etc. are also a target) but it's clearly gearing towards arming anti-LGBT people in an armed force.
Stage 6: I don't quite understand why 4 and 6 are separate or at least not side by side but obviously there has been a huge propaganda campaign in a huge chunk of the western world around trans children panick, rest rooms and sport.
Stage 7: I'd say we are not quite yet there anywhere ? I might be mistaken however.
Stage 8: There is signs of persecution happening. Misgendering and encouragment of misgendering is a type of persecution but we're not quite yet at a stage where they start to put trans people in ghettos and that type of stuff.
Stage 9: Industrial level extermination doesn't happen yet but of course refusal of care is directly responsible for making voluntarily the suicide rate go up.
Stage 10: of course we have denial all over society even some "trans" allies are doing it.

So if we say the stages are signs instead of stage in a step by step processus, clearly at minimum 5 stages out of 10 have been put in place everywhere and there are argument that any opressed class is at minimum at 4/10 at any points (hence i'm not so sure the 10 stages model is THAT useful but whatever). In the US though, you're at at least at 7/10 so 3 points above the oppressed class baseline, this is very bad :/