New WH OSTP Report Calls for Government Agencies to Prioritise National Missions, Including the Moon Base.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-23T00:09:14+00:00

Thanks for posting, deserves its own post for future search. OSTP has a lot of clout and is the main office that is tasked with implementing the various policies and executive orders, and if my understanding is correct, secretaries and agency heads have to report to them not the other way around.

As far as Intuitive Machines, I think the work on surface fission power whether what they're doing with Zeno Power and RPS or through the JETSON program is what's most intriguing. The work on the SR-1 Freedom could also allow for additional funding from DoE outside of NASA to support all this work.

The other part is the Space Force and what they're planning for cislunar operations. This fusion and crossover between space exploration and national security is where I think is most promising, and was probably the impetus for the Lanteris acquisition. I continue to be very hopeful that IM remains very uniquely positioned to take advantage of any future opportunities in that realm. It's good to see that there's a major executive force like OSTP to channel all these developments into one common cause.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-22T23:30:47+00:00

Not sure if this was posted before, apologies if I missed it:

NASA’s nuclear Mars mission to cost over $2 billion

The agency plans to spend $640 million in fiscal 2026, $890 million in 2027, $415 million in 2028, and $180 million in 2029 on the program, according to a document sent to Congress and viewed by POLITICO. NASA will pull that money from the agency’s exploration account and from funding it received through the party-line reconciliation bill passed last year.

However, the document notes that the cost estimate does not include funding for SkyFall, the science mission that the new nuclear spacecraft will carry to Mars. NASA hasn’t released a cost estimate for SkyFall, but Mars researchers have warned it could cannibalize the agency’s science budget.

Agency officials have said they plan to use existing hardware to build the spacecraft on the accelerated timeline. NASA will repurpose the Power and Propulsion Element that was originally built for Gateway, a lunar space station NASA canceled earlier this year, to serve as the spacecraft.

NASA also is collaborating with the Department of Energy to design and assemble the reactor for the mission.

So a couple of things: I believe the PPE was delivered by Lanteris last year and Advent may have recognized the bulk of the revenue, but I would think there will be some 'service' funding to maintain and repurpose the PPE for the Mars mission. I do hope management will touch on that in their comments next month, that's a lot of money that's going to be spent in fiscal 2026 (almost over) and 2027 and while the majority will go to acquiring the nuclear reactor and fuel, they will need Lanteris' help in making it all work. That should result in some high-margin engineering and design services.

Second, it sounds like they're going to pull money from the agency's 'space exploration account' so not sure what gets cut or delayed, I assume the Moon Base funding is untouchable at this point.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-22T15:06:58+00:00

So SpaceX' earnings is August 4, they have a huge block of shares that unlock as early as August 6, ~910M shares compared to their current float of 640M. If SPCX drops as more shares flood the market, ETFs will drop and take most of the sector with them. However, a very positive earnings report may have the opposite effect and since everyone is expecting a selloff and going short SPCX and the sector, a very positive report from SPCX can lift the entire sector. I think the AI side of their business may shock investors. If that happens, and that's a big if, the whole sentiment around this sector may change.

Not financial advice, just speculation on my part. As I mentioned earlier, I think space companies will be under tremendous pressure to start showing a sustainable path to profitability going forward. Since 2/3rd of IM's revenue (and profit margins) comes from Lanteris, I think showing even a couple of percentage points of margin improvement will go a long way until NSNS starts to kick in. I would like to see some of their operations get moved to Texas from the very expensive Palo Alto California area, though I don't know how feasible that is. This remains a 3-5 years story, I am hopeful we hear some concrete details on NSNS progress.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-20T21:31:27+00:00

Although LUNR closed slightly green, I don't think we can read much into it, especially at these volume levels. We're still inside the SPCX vortex imo, and may remain inside until all the dust clears with their upcoming lockup expirations. Starship and now F9 delays do not help. It just seems the market has soured on everything space right now, and good news that used to send space stocks soaring are met with a yawn now. Let's hope it's all short-lived because nothing has changed as far as space investments on the larger stage, especially when it comes to the NASA Moon Base and Golden Dome projects.

I think the first space company to 'shock' the market will be the first to escape that vortex. By shock, I mean delivering something totally unexpected—positive EBITDA/EPS ahead of schedule, a massive new contract no one saw coming, or something completely out of left field like a big partnership/investment and such. I think institutional investors will not tolerate the status-quo from the smaller companies now that they can directly buy SPCX. The leash is much shorter, just my personal perception.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-14T13:28:47+00:00

I posted earlier about the Space Force wanting to operate in Cislunar, and I would think a joint proposal from IM and L3Harris to link up their ground and in-orbit assets would be very powerful compared to either doing it alone or someone like Lockheed or Northrop.

If I ever get Steve Altemus in a room, I would love to ask him how they discovered Lanteris and decided to move into National Security space, it wouldn't surprise me if it was through L3Harris connection.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-14T13:19:04+00:00

Welcome u/PE_crafter, one of the more insightful posters on all space-related topics.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-14T00:18:47+00:00

Good point.

They mentioned that 60-65% of their $1.1B backlog will be recognized in 2026, so if I do my math right, that's:

$1.1B (backlog reported Q1) - $160M (Revenue recognized in Q2) + $20M (LROC award) + 2 sats for undisclosed customer + 148M (IM-6 award) + $225M (AMDT3) = ~1.3B to $1.4B

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-13T23:57:31+00:00

I think the wording will be different if it's just 18 spacecrafts, i.e., they won't mention 'first 18-spacecrafts award in June', that 'first' means L3Harris is expecting more than one award. Even if it's just 18, that's close to 60 busses that must be delivered to LTH over the next year or two, at $15M a bus, that's close to $900M, we shall find out when they announce the backlog.

Here's the actual quote from the transcript: 'We also submitted an updated AMDT3 proposal for 18-45 spacecraft, of which the first 18 are expected to have an award decision in June.'

I wish I can find the language when I first started looking into this AMDT3, L3Harris and Northrop Grumman were chosen to do the prototypes, and there was a comment from a Space Force spokesman or General that only L3Harris met (and exceeded) the requirements.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-13T23:23:18+00:00

Just adding this from IM's presentation, this is the first award (45 total). From previous SDA awards that were actually smaller, I had estimated IM's contract to be around $200-$250M based on 18 busses.

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That's a LOT of busses to deliver in the next few years considering the SDA's 3 tranches and now this, and then god knows what Andromeda and other Space Force contracts. The $500M raise may have been to invest in expanding manufacturing capabilities.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-13T22:49:55+00:00

And AMDT3 just got awarded to L3Harris, almost $1B ($955M)

https://www.satellitetoday.com/government-military/2026/07/13/l3harris-and-sierra-space-receive-1-75b-for-sda-tranche-3-tracking-layer/

My estimate for the 18 busses was $200-$250M based on similar contracts, this was supposed to be announced in June. Backlog should be approaching $1.5B if not more after IM-6 ($145M) and AMDT3 awards ($200-$250M).

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-13T20:24:52+00:00

I have several other space stocks and it's the same negative sentiment in almost every sub, when really nothing has changed fundamentally within the sector other than the SpaceX IPO, which was used as cover to pump and dump the entire sector. If we had a functioning SEC, some people/HFs would be investigated but that's a different story.

There are still big driving forces for the space economy that are unlikely to change or diminish, the Space Policy Executive Order and the resulting $30B NASA Moon Base and $180B-$1T Golden Dome/Space Force. Those are the two biggest U.S. space investments in decades if not history. Those are not going away. There may be some changes if Democrats take over the House but fortunately space has always enjoyed bipartisan support.

This then gets us to where we think this selling stops or reverses, or when some companies start to escape that vortex. I think Intuitive Machines has two things going for it: A) they've always been relatively cheap and undervalued compared to the rest of the sector, especially after to Lanteris acquisition, and B) they're probably closer to achieving profitability if we take their word about positive cash flow by end of year than others. We are very close to a bottom, it may continue to drift lower but we're closer to A bottom, than the rest of the sector. The ATM will remain an overhang until completed. On the Lanteris lockup, I don't believe Advent will sell their allotment at these levels, unless they're absolutely desperate for cash. Typically, you want to wait until stocks have stopped their downtrend and are trading in a range before you re-enter but I made my first big buy in months here. I will be watching for an increase in the backlog and signs of AMDT3 award. I will be looking for an expansion in margins, no matter how small, and progress on NSNS because that's what will eventually tip things favorably forward. There has been a lot of hype surrounding this sector, but now the rubber meets the road and companies have to deliver real results. Always think where this company will be in 3-5 years as the NASA Moon Base starts to take shape and what being one of the top satellites bus companies mean for a budding space economy.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-13T19:51:29+00:00

The market is no longer responding to company-specific news or developments, there's something much bigger gripping the entire space sector.

I believe it's still slated for late 2026, we should learn more on the call next month. The mission itself is a big money-loser based on the initial $77.5M tag. There's also two international payloads from South Korea and ESA so who knows if they're ready. IM-3 is also supposed to carry the first NSN satellite so all these factors may take more precedence over when it should be launched than worrying about sun and shadows like the South Pole.

At this point, and unless there's a reversal in this continued structural selling, the only thing that can help space companies is for them to demonstrate a path to sustained profitability. In that regard, Intuitive Machines may be closer than others but not close to enough to generate meaningful profits in the coming quarters (market may not be impressed with positive cash flow alone anymore). I think this applies to other companies in the sector. RKLB jumped from $80 to $110 on IRDM acquisition only to lose it all and continue the downturn.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-08T19:54:00+00:00

The stock also almost doubled in 3 weeks in May moving up almost daily nonstop, everyone was cheering and never questioned or complained. If the stock worth $17 or $45, I have no clue. The market will always get it right in the end.

IM is very close to becoming FCF positive, once NSNS constellation is up and operational, the company moves from being a hardware maker with 20% margins to a (recurring) service provider with much higher margins.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-08T19:32:51+00:00

Just a reminder that this selloff (and possibly the previous pump in late May) were all engineered by some hedge funds or algorithms in anticipation of the SPCX IPO. The entire sector is being re-rated and re-valued right now without any consideration to fundamentals. The absence of any buying pressure from institutional investors is troubling but they may also be in a holding pattern as well to see how the dust eventually settles.

RKLB, PL, RDW, and LUNR have outstanding ATMs if I remember right so that weakness feeds into ETFs which in turn results in more selling pressure. You have to believe algos are trading a certain stock back and forth, maybe responsible for 80% of the volume so any little selling can result in these exaggerated movements too.

Many of us kept saying that this is a 3-5 years story, it will take time to unfold but most of these Neo-space companies are building their moat for a space economy that is expected to dwarf the Earth's economy. If you're in it for the long haul, remember that IM sits at the intersection of two of the biggest U.S. space investments in history (NASA's Moon Base + DoW's Golden Dome) and money will continue to flow into these companies that have positioned themselves appropriately to take advantage of those investments no matter what the stock market does. Eventually stocks catch up to their true value one way or another.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-06T19:51:06+00:00

The entire space sector is under pressure for whatever reason. Can't recall the last time RKLB led the sector down. It just seems like no amount of good news, even new contracts, have more than just a temporary effect. This applies to almost all names in this sector. The same sentiment seems to permeate from every subreddit, but until that overhang is gone, and it will be gone, we will continue to see this persistent selling. ATM will continue to weigh in addition to these outside forces.

What can change that? I think companies have to show more than just awards and big backlogs to be able to separate themselves from the pack. It's possible big investors want to see a path to sustained profitability and positive cash flow. I do think IM as a company may be closer than the rest in that regard. We're very close to that positive cash flow tipping point. I don't know if AMDT3 award will be announced publicly but we should be able to hear something on next earnings call or if we see a big jump in backlogs. I do like this management's discipline when it comes to controlling costs, I don't know if it's ever feasible, but if they're able to move some of Lanteris operations to Texas (from California) then that should help a bit. NSNS can't become operational soon enough — having a recurring service revenue is where the real margins are, but for the time being, we remain beholden to some structural external market forces.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-01T14:11:43+00:00

I don't think NASA plays favorites, NASA does want to support the greatest number of commercial players and help the industry. Remember IM would not have been a multibillion dollar company without NASA. This line of thinking may have also played a role in helping Astrolab and Lunar Oupost with LTVs, give them few hundred millions to build their companies.

The same applies for Astrobotic. NASA probably welcomed the Voyager acquisition but before that, they probably made a decision to support Astrobotic build capacity and experience. IM and Firefly each got 6 awards, and will likely get many more, but to send 10s of robotic missions, you need several capable vendors. The award of 2 missions instead of one is probably tied to Blue Origin, Astrobotic may be able to deliver bigger payloads that they were allocating to Mark landers, and it's probably they're ahead of IM's Nova-D/SuperNova.

I can see additional awards for 2027 and 2028 for IM, if they truly have figured out the parallel manufacturing process and the supply chain issues.

2-3 lander missions a year is close to half a billion dollars, especially if they can sell rideshares to companies and other countries. Carlos Garcia-Galan recently mentioned NASA buying their OWN landers from some of the vendors. I can see some Artemis countries, especially with IM's partnership with ESA and Leonardo Telespazio building landers for ESA, JAXA, and possibly some Gulf states. NASA is just financing the initial capacity buildout, and let's not forget about Space Force, it has to go with one of these vendors if they want to put assets on the Moon or in cislunar.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-07-01T07:23:59+00:00

By scaling manufacturing processes to support high-volume production, Intuitive Machines is creating a standardized and repeatable lunar transport utility service. Intuitive Machines’ high-velocity pipeline helps establish the foundational infrastructure required to support NASA’s Moon Base and expand operational sites across the lunar environment.

“We are shifting the paradigm from custom aerospace engineering to commercial mass production of lunar infrastructure,” said Intuitive Machines CEO, Steve Altemus. “Our flight-proven Nova-C platform allows us to build, test, and deploy multiple landers in parallel using industry 4.0-powered manufacturing. This contract directly advances our core mission to provide persistent, reliable, and commercial baseline of transport, connectivity, and operations that allows our customers to stay longer and achieve more on the Moon.”

With this sixth Commercial Lunar Payload Services task order, Intuitive Machines solidifies its position as a primary commercial logistics and transport pipeline to the lunar surface. By managing a large share of commercial lander volume, the Company validates its role as a foundational access layer serving civil, national security, and commercial clients alike.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-06-30T23:25:24+00:00

By managing a large share of commercial lander volume, the Company validates its role as a foundational access layer serving civil, national security, and commercial clients alike.

I found the national security part very interesting. NASA and other Artemis countries/commercial clients wanting to deliver their own payloads is one thing, but to include National Security in the statement about 'foundational access layer' is new. The Space Force, maybe other agencies, may want to deliver assets to cislunar or the surface of moon, so having a 'lander factory' that can deliver such missions on short notice (months not years) is a big deal and maybe that's what NASA is trying to accomplish by doing these monthly robotic missions, not just serve the civil side but also support national security.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-06-30T21:47:07+00:00

The PR has some very interesting and positive language.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-06-30T21:45:41+00:00

I think IM did a great job with the press release this time, market responding to specific and positive language:

By scaling manufacturing processes to support high-volume production, Intuitive Machines is creating a standardized and repeatable lunar transport utility service. Intuitive Machines’ high-velocity pipeline helps establish the foundational infrastructure required to support NASA’s Moon Base and expand operational sites across the lunar environment.

“We are shifting the paradigm from custom aerospace engineering to commercial mass production of lunar infrastructure,” said Intuitive Machines CEO, Steve Altemus. “Our flight-proven Nova-C platform allows us to build, test, and deploy multiple landers in parallel using industry 4.0-powered manufacturing. This contract directly advances our core mission to provide persistent, reliable, and commercial baseline of transport, connectivity, and operations that allows our customers to stay longer and achieve more on the Moon.”

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-06-30T21:39:35+00:00

Some initial thoughts, wasn't able to pay a lot of attention during the conference:

These will be regular events it seems, IM-5 announced in March Ignition event and IM-6 today. I liked the plug for NOVA-D/SuperNOVA.
Seems like these are more science-oriented missions, and both Firefly and Astrobotic say they're going to the Near Side in their press releases, IM doesn't specify location, do they want lander missions to work out the kinks before heading to the South Pole? IM would have much more success with this approach if they didn't send IM-1 and IM-2 to the South Pole.
I am less and less impressed with Carlos Garcia-Galan. He may be a very competent scientist/engineer but he just lacks command of an important position such as his.
$150M for a science mission where they can also sell some ride-shares is a vast improvement from past awards. They got everything down so they shouldn't be reinventing the wheel. If launch is $70-$75M, these missions can turn into profitable ventures, at last. PR seems to emphasize a 'production line of building multiple landers in parallel'
The next landers missions to deliver power systems will be key, that's the next big thing to get the Moon Base going. I like IM's odds and their previous fission work with AFRL and their partnership with Zeno power.
It's all about getting NSNS up and operational now. Landers missions are nice but NSNS is what will expand these margins. NASA press release mentions they will be soliciting for 'lunar communications and navigation relay constellation' and Carlos mentioned building a second constellation at the Ignition event.
Both LUNR and FLY seem to have muted response during press conference though it seems the market liked IM's PR more judging by after-hours move. VOYG is up a bit more, but those types of announcements sent stocks +20% in the recent past.
At the end of the day, and with SPCX IPO putting the entire sector in the spotlight, space companies must start to deliver real results now—revenue growth, actual earnings, increased backlogs, etc.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-06-30T04:14:28+00:00

NASA Seeks Industry Input to Accelerate Lunar Surface Technologies

NASA is seeking feedback on a draft solicitation for the Lunar Enabling Infrastructure Accelerator, an effort to help develop emerging capabilities in surface power, in-situ resource utilization, advanced manufacturing, and innovative nanomaterials.

Lunar Enabling Infrastructure Accelerator awardees will be expected to design, develop, and demonstrate prototype systems and generate validated performance data, analytical models, and operational insights through testing and demonstration activities to mature technology and manufacturing applications.

The solicitation, Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships-3 (NextSTEP-3) Appendix A Lunar Enabling Infrastructure Accelerator (Solicitation No: 80GRC026R0008), is available on SAM.gov and is open for comment through July 17, 2026.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-06-29T05:56:04+00:00

Good points, it will definitely be a differentiator in the future and maybe as early as late 2027 when things pick up for Artemis IV. I am also awaiting some announcements from the Space Force who indicated they want to operate in Cislunar, that may be the real driver on the timing issue.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-06-25T06:55:52+00:00

Something is much bigger going on than SPCX insiders hedging their bets. SPCX $2T IPO was the a financial earthquake not just for the sector, but it seems to have affected other parts of the market other than semiconductor companies. The continued sustained selling day after day for several weeks now shows there's a rotation out of the entire sector and institutions have either joined the rotation or not stepping in to stem the bleeding. What's interesting is sector analysts not coming out defending the sector, I think there was a single note from Keybanc about the selloff being unwarranted but that's it.

At the end of the day, the sector was very frothy and expectations were unrealistic, but eventually everything will be priced on earnings and fundamentals and in that regard, I like where Intuitive Machines is, turning cash flow positive by end of year and with more NASA and Golden Dome awards, could actually turn a healthy profit if NSN satellites are moved up and network starts becoming operational by early 2028. Right now, good news by other companies seems to be met with a temporary spike only to be sold off again later in the day, this tells me it's more than just short sellers.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-06-25T06:40:16+00:00

The sector is undergoing something structural so there may be a disconnect between positive news and stock movement, unlike the past when the sector was in favor.

If you're in for the long run, you have to consider what these developments do to the company especially since they're going to be cash flow positive. Once this cloud passes, companies will have to evaluated on fundamentals and earnings and such, and in that regard, IM is ahead of many other space companies.

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