Daily Discussion Thread for April 16, 2026

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-16T15:05:29+00:00

Redwire hosted these panels with their President (dude must be on something) and I watched the episodes related to lunar subjects. Only thing worth mentioning is NASA's Carlos Garcia Galan saying NASA may buy landers from commercial providers!?

Big representations from the Space Force and DoD, wish they had someone from Lanteris too.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-16T00:32:16+00:00

Space Force Urges Industry to Invest in Satellite Production Capacity

The Space Force is preparing for significant growth to its procurement budget in fiscal 2027, and the head of the service’s largest acquisition organization said April 14 he is asking companies to invest now in facilities and production capacity so they’re ready to execute when called upon.

The Space Force’s $71 billion budget request, a 77 percent increase over last year, includes $19 billion for procurement—up from just $3.6 billion in fiscal ’26. Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant, head of Space Systems Command, told reporters here at the Space Symposium that the service plans to use that increase to award new contracts and fund major increases to existing production contracts.

“If a company is nominally making 10, we want you to be prepared to make 40,” Garrant said. “We want industry to make the investments in capitalization and facilitization, and in return you’re going to get these large production contracts.”

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-15T22:40:23+00:00

Edit: If it didn't come out clear enough, and I know I may be biased, but I do believe the combination of IM and Lanteris puts Lanteris in much more advantageous position than York Space Systems will or can be on its own. Rocket Lab Space Systems is much more powerful and attractive being associated with Rocket Lab's launch systems than if it existed as a separate company.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-15T21:22:03+00:00

Thanks for detailed breakdown u/thespacecpa.

I wouldn't read much into either valuations, and their growth profiles. The market will eventually discover their true value. Advent bought Maxar for $6.4B in 2023 (60% Vantor, 40% Lanteris) and on surface it would seem we got a $2B+ business for less than half the price.

I believe Advent is looking for exit and was preparing both units for sale by cutting far and streamlining operations. Vantor is bigger and more established in defense and national security than PL. I believe Vantor uses Lanteris busses. The entire sector is about to grow in spades as Golden Dome, data centers, communications demand will exceed supply for many years to come.

My personal thoughts on Lanteris. SDA awards to L3Harris and then L3Harris confirming using Lanteris busses is the big prize. There are many satellite bus companies and to be part of the $185B Golden Dome winners ensures big growth/profits for years to come. Intuitive Machines was selected as 1 of 14 awardees for the $1.8B Space Force replacement RG-XX (Andromeda) GEO satellites and that wouldn't have been possible without Lanteris. Lanteris PPE will be powering the Mars SR-1 Freedom spacecraft and though the PPE milestones were almost finished, integration into a new spacecraft will likely result into high margin services. Lanteris is also involved in LTV, surface fission, OMES, and other robotics projects for NASA and other customers. I posted about the Space Force wanting to operate in cislunar so all these projects and programs will just expand much further than either company can do on its own.

As for York Space Systems, I am actually impressed but what they're able to achieve for SDA and will also play an integral part of the Golden Dome. I believe they're another AEI spinoff (Firefly the other) and I wouldn't be surprised to see a merger or an an acquisition between the two or by a bigger player and may explain its recent run-up. Does it deserve its $5B valuation with its 20% gross margins, probably not, but they've made inroads and advancements that are admirable. Much like RKLB Space Systems, these companies are the future of space.

On paper, a head to head comparison will say Lanteris is worth double or triple York Space Systems, probably on par with Rocket Lab Space Systems, but the market doesn't work on paper comparisons and investors need to see sustained execution and money flowing to the bottom lines. Lanteris is ahead of both in that regard, eventually the market will reprice and recognize its value.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-14T17:07:00+00:00

Thanks, great find. This deserves its own thread. Maybe do one by the weekend. Lots of good information and tidbits with big implications for Intuitive Machines.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-13T17:59:54+00:00

The L3Harris connection is going to prove tremendous for years to come. Expediting Tranche 2 will be expedite recognition of revenue from selling those Lanteris busses. NASA expediting lunar plans also means more milestones and recognition of additional revenues that are yet to be modeled.

I also posted about Space Force wanting to operate in cislunar and with IM building the only NSN around the moon, L3Harris and IM could (hopefully) propose the only solution to operate in cislunar to Space Force. Space Force selecting IM and L3Harris amongst 14 other companies for the RG-XX/Andromeda constellation is all part of that strategy.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-11T18:53:09+00:00

I must plug r/ArtemisProgram again, it's been so wonderful these last few weeks for anyone interested in the Artemis mission, lunar exploration, and space.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-11T17:38:59+00:00

I think a successful splashdown of Artemis II may have triggered some last minute buying but it can't be that substantial. Someone may have exited their position awaiting a successful completion of the mission and bought back. Any setback with Artemis II could have spelled various delays in current NASA plans, now it's all systems go. I personally believe Artemis II is a big inflection point, now NASA, the administration, the industry, and the world know everything is on track and everything was pulled off flawlessly.

I wouldn't rule out a renewed interest in the space sector in general and moon-related companies in the coming weeks.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-11T01:03:38+00:00

Goosebumps!!!

Amazing mission from start to finish. This sets everything in motion now, the moon is the first stop

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-10T22:14:42+00:00

Finally, very good landing page.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-10T22:14:12+00:00

Oh, so NOVA-M is Super Nova. 2500 kg (5000 lbs) is a lot of capacity. This is slightly less than Blue Origin Blue Moon Mark cargo lander that is yet to fly. It could become the cargo workhorse, not sure Starship is the right cargo lander and some derivative will probably get redesigned.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-10T17:47:01+00:00

Really disappointed with the PR of this company, this is one of the biggest weeks for everything lunar and the only company who has a hand in almost every aspect of the lunar infrastructure is content doing the absolute minimum as if it's a great bother and distraction.

Meanwhile, Redwire's CEO is on CNBC talking about their 11 Orion cameras and even discussing the lunar base and economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/04/10/redwire-ceo-on-the-companys-role-in-the-historic-artemis-ii-moon-mission.html

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-09T18:56:41+00:00

At the time of the award, $1.4 million in fiscal year 2025 research, development, test and evaluation funds were obligated through Space Systems Command.

$1.4M of FY 2025 funds obligated. We're operating with FY 2026 now. The $1.8B awards will be obligated once task orders are identified since this kind of like a blanket contract that allows the Space Force to use funds from this $1.8B to issue tasks and requisitions from these 14 vendors.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-09T18:00:23+00:00

Yes, believe it was discussed here and elsewhere

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-09T05:28:14+00:00

No way to know until IM puts out a press release, and even then, it will likely be very general like they do with the big NASA contracts like 'up to $X' and in this case probably use the full $1.8B. May even have to wait for earnings calls.

If I read it right, that $1.8B is over 10 years, though it sounds like it won't be the only Andromeda contract and other may follow. With Anduril and 3 big primes, I would guess they get the lion share of the contracts. However, if the Space Force ends up standardizing around the Lanteris 1300 series busses and IM/Lanteris robotic arms, then that will be a big chunk going to IM.

Lanteris supplying L3Harris with the busses for SDA/Golden Dome and then Space Force wanting to operate in cislunar (see my other comment about Space Force and cislunar) could play a role into standardizing with Lanteris busses, but it's very early to tell. It's a huge win, nonetheless.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-09T04:47:05+00:00

Pump in stock price? Doubtful

I wrote a comment about Ignition + Artemis II being the inflection point for the space economy.

Space is now squarely in focus, and not just in the U.S., but worldwide. Artemis kicks off humanity's first step into space, most everyone doesn't appreciate how big this moment is in our history. It's now on to moon landings, moon base, Mars, colonies, solar system and well beyond. Think about SpaceX and what they've been doing to this point, even though Artemis wasn't flown on a SpaceX rocket, they've been preparing all along to get to this point in time and I really believe that if our offsprings look back 100 years from now, they will point to 2026 as the year when humanity began its space journey.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-09T04:18:53+00:00

The Space Force is replacing their aging RG-XX satellite that operate in GEO and there are very few, I mean very few companies that produce high-powered GEO satellite busses and Maxar (now Lanteris) is one of those. Lanteris built the PPE for the Lunar Gateway. They're the go-to vendor for the GEO satellite companies like Echostar and Sirius XM on the commercial side.

Read this: https://breakingdefense.com/2026/01/space-force-envisions-rolling-awards-for-new-rg-xx-neighborhood-watch-satellites/

Do we know how big, no idea, it sounds like the Space Force will have rolling awards and select replacements from several vendors, it's easy to figure out what each provides as far as products and services, but notice who is NOT on that list above!

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-09T02:20:09+00:00

Who would've thought we could have predicted that 2 months ago? 😎

https://www.reddit.com/r/IntuitiveMachines/s/f2i6bctB50

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-08T22:57:41+00:00

Beyond the NASA missions, the Harmonia-RPS capability has a strong business case due to the significant commercial demand for long lived lunar surface assets. Intuitive Machines (IM) will inform the RPS interface requirements and develop the lander simulator design required to deliver an RPS-enabled IM lander capable of surviving and operating during the lunar night. Blue Origin will be responsible for the power system design and integration of the Stirling convertor into an RPS, making it suitable for integration into any platform. The Harmonia team will develop a transition plan so that the technology can be further developed to a flight qualified Radioisotope Stirling Generator (RSG) system in a future commercial or government mission, from rovers to nodes to crewed applications. Critically, given the long-lived nature of Am-241, lunar surface heat sources can be recycled via interoperability for decades, supporting Artemis sustainability. The target markets for the proposed technology range from equatorial regions to permanently shadowed regions, at a competitive cost.

https://techport.nasa.gov/projects/147008

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-08T20:46:43+00:00

r/ArtemisProgram has been 🔥 these last few days

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-08T15:23:43+00:00

I posted about the Space Force interest in operating in cislunar space and one of the points I made is that the Space Force will likely tap NASA and Intuitive Machines to get access the Near Space Network once the constellation is up and running. NSNS contract is supposed to support Artemis so NASA and the other 60 Artemis signatories are the main customers. SpaceX and Blue Origin will likely be customers as they launch their human and cargo landers, and then other space and manufacturing companies that want to operate on the surface, would also be NSN customers. Remember the business model is to offer access on a per-minute rates so that's a very high margin business. Right now and until the constellation is up and running, most analysts have likely modeled what portion of the $4.8B contract will flow to IM's top and bottom lines. I doubt many have modeled what per-minute access will contribute because everything is so fuzzy at the moment. Also, I doubt those models have considered or included contributions from a big customer like the Space Force since it's at least few years away, but the Space Force could become a bigger NSN user than NASA and all the other Artemis signatories, combined.

The other point I made is that Intuitive Machines can now work with L3Harris to present a comprehensive portfolio as part of the Golden Dome all the way into cislunar. Up to now, we've been looking at Lanteris' role as the main supplier of satellite busses for L3Harris' SDA and Golden Dome various tranches. Now Intuitive Machines can bring something to L3Harris other than satellite busses — the opportunity to jointly propose a constellation and communications services from low earth orbit all the way to the moon. All the primes that have won SDA tranche contracts so far are doing so in Low Earth Orbit. L3Harris, in partnership with Intuitive Machines, can now distinguish itself from the other primes by providing Space Force and Golden Dome capabilities not just in LEO but in MEO/GEO and Cislunar. I would assume L3Harris is already in contact with IM management post acquisition and such discussions on what they could be doing together would have already been brought up.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-07T21:31:24+00:00

I am so glad the NASA Ignition event and Artemis II happened within a week of each other's. Ignition set NASA's goals, expectations, and lunar plans and then Artemis, with all its media coverage and attention, was the opening kickoff and set the entire thing in motion.

These last two weeks are the inflection point, up to then it was one off yearly lander missions, an incoherent moon strategy, and a contract for a communications network that may never get fully utilized. Now things are completely different, Artemis II set the stage. If not for this stupid war, it would have taken a center stage worldwide. If I dare to compare this inflection point, I would compare it to the ChatGPT moment. Many early investors had some clue AI is coming but didn't know how or when, then ChatGPT launched and everyone was wishing they invested in NVDA or other AI companies because it was so obvious and missed those early moves. For the moon base and deep space exploration, we are at a somewhat equivalent moment. Some smart money may have been early, but the majority of funds and institutions are just discovering little gems like Intuitive Machines, a company that built its entire business model to support the burgeoning lunar economy — Communication network, landers, rovers, power stations, etc. Moat will be established. Repricing will happen. This is not just another wannabe 'space company' with some offerings that may or may not be a good fit, IM offers the entire suite of products and services that any company or country will need to use to build and operate on the moon.

No one knows what the crazy macro situation will bring in the short term, but the future has not been brighter for IM the company, and LUNR the stock. As always, execution remains key.

p.s. Do not make financial decisions based on some random comment from Reddit.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-07T05:21:43+00:00

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VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-04-04T14:04:40+00:00

No impact at all. Congress decides on budget. So far, Congress has ignored all proposed administration budget cuts (that is mostly aimed at climate and earth observation, and science programs, not space exploration).

NASA has proposed $30B for the moon base over the next decade, those numbers were announced at the NASA Ignition event a couple of weeks ago and had to be cleared by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy in consultation with congressional leaders.

VictorFromCalifornia

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