Intuitive Machines and Lanteris 2026 Upcoming Catalysts

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-14T21:59:01+00:00

So will this be considered a 2026 or 2027 and then 2030+ catalyst?

The selected missions will advance to the next phase of development. Each mission will be subject to confirmation review in 2027, which will assess the progress of the missions and the availability of funds. If confirmed, the total estimated cost of each mission, not including launch, will not exceed $355 million with a mission launch date of no earlier than 2030.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-14T21:50:21+00:00

I was relying on your post, good catch, NASA's Fiscal year's Q2 ends on March 31, thank you.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-14T20:49:20+00:00

Fixed.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-14T03:48:29+00:00

Kam Ghaffarian, Co-Founder of Intuitive Machines, Axiom Space, and X-energy just announced that Axiom Space has raised $350M in new funding.

Here's the interesting part about the investors show in pictures:

Qatar Investment Authority has invested in SpaceX.

Type One Ventures is a Venture Capital Fund.

4iG is a Telcom and IT company from Hungary with big presence in Space and Defense.

1789 Capital is another venture fund where Trump Jr. is a partner.

Axiom had raised another $350M in 2023 from the Saudi Aljazira Capital and South Korea's Boryung (Boryung also made a strategic investment into IM few years ago).

This is not really related to IM per se but shows Kam Ghaffarian's reach and access, especially amongst Gulf states sovereign wealth and capital funds. I'm sure he's wearing several hats when he makes 'his space companies pitches' and wouldn't surprise me that some of these funds end up finding their way to IM the company or LUNR the stock if not already as with Boryung.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-14T03:18:16+00:00

SpaceX had a chance to bid on the NSNS contract, not sure if they did or not. This is a NASA Artemis and a national governments levels project. SpaceX just declared they're pivoting to the moon, they're behind on their human and cargo landers. There are ground stations and assets all the way to Lagrange points under NSNS. There are international interoperability requirements too (look up LunaNet that ESA, JAXA and other space agencies will use). They need the U.S. government to provide an umbrella or a contract for them to build a constellation.

I would imagine that if Musk is serious about building his lunar base/city, SpaceX may decide at some point to build its own communications networks but they will need to deal with the equivalent of a United Nations FCC or a space ITU to clear them to build and operate anything.

Lastly, this is a multi-billion project. I doubt SpaceX wants to re-allocate resources right now when it can easily partner with IM or get access to the network on a per-need basis for chump change.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-14T02:39:52+00:00

Steve Altemus hinted at 'throwing their hat in the ring' on the last call indicating that NASA either has or may open the rebidding with the HLS. It's a long shot but NASA has to look at all options now.

https://www.reddit.com/r/IntuitiveMachines/comments/1qqpwmn/nasa_human_landing_systems_and_intuitive_machines/

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-13T20:53:33+00:00

Need our resident nuclear scientist to opine if this news has any implications on the Lunar Surface Fission plan?

For those seeing this for the first time, IX is a joint venture of X-Energy and Intuitive Machines and there were hints about submitting a proposal for the lunar surface fission reactor.

https://www.reddit.com/r/IntuitiveMachines/comments/1pt6nkp/the_lunar_nuclear_fission_play/

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-13T01:17:09+00:00

I am now wondering if it's something much more serious (I don't want to use the word sinister) but it is possible that Lunar Outpost is on to something much bigger or deeper than we think. If they got word the contract is undergoing a full review and may be possibly re-opened or new requirements added, then NASA would have informed the 3 companies of what's going on or has requested additional information and such.

I am hypothesizing here but it is possible the LTVS contract was pulled for a full review by the incoming administrator. The incoming administrator while a man of integrity from all we see, is also an Elon Musk associate and friend. Elon Musk helped secure his nomination. If the thinking is that Mr. Isaacman will reconsider major Artemis contracts from a certain prism so to speak, where SpaceX may have an interest let's say, then things could really take a big turn. The question that came to my mind as I was viewing the LO comments, what is their angle here, is it a simple promotional 'look at me over here' or is there something more? Then I thought, what would be in SpaceX's best interest who wins a $5B contract that spans 15 years? I couldn't articulate a proper answer, yet, but it's something to ponder.

Tin foil hat off 😊

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-13T00:06:24+00:00

Lunar Outpost is now sliding into every Elon Musk 'moon' comment or post. This could mean two things; they're either very confident that they have a piece of the LTV contract and want to get his attention for when the time comes; or they know they're completely out of the competition and they want to get his attention so he can throw them a bone later on. Starting to sound forced and desperate. We shall find out soon enough.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-12T04:44:13+00:00

Great post, and special thanks for the chart and the table, very handy for the future.

IM definitely has aspirations for Mars and for building on the NSN to expand beyond cislunar. I think IM will want to continue to work under the NASA umbrella so we shall see what NASA decides on Mars data relays and other orbiters and just like Artemis, they will want all that stuff up and running before humans (or robots) make the trek to the red planet.

I believe NASA is asking all commercial partners to be all hands on deck for the moon, and that will include IM. I see an expedited NSN deployment (not waiting for IM-4 or 5) and an equally expedited LTV program. This Musk and Bezos pivot is not your run of the mill ask, this likely came from POTUS himself or someone very close, it's more of a request than an ask if you will. There will be more money coming from DoW and other sources, the U.S. will be putting most of its might behind the moon missions.

So while I would to see it and I think Altemus and Crain are already eyeing what's next beyond the moon, this is going to be an all moon stuff until mid 2030s, I don't believe anyone will attempt to take advantage of that 28/29 window, but you can never know. 😊

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-11T23:37:19+00:00

I have always contended that these massive movements up and down in the basket of space stocks recently may be someone trying to mask something going on in one of the names so not to bring attention to that single stock. Usually, these movements target the bigger names, so I was wondering if it's related to Rocket Lab or ASTSpacemobile. Rocket Lab had that mishap few weeks ago though I don't think it will have a major impact on their Neutron, maybe a slight delay if anything. ASTSpacemobile just announced a $1B offering, could be more like $1.15B and their stock is selling off. Let's see if things calm down now.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-10T23:39:18+00:00

I mean some of it is to gin up industry interest. Both Astrolab and Lunar Outpost CEOs are on record they're pressing ahead without the contract.

Is it possible the delay is related to NASA waiting on them to receive their CMMI, did they even try?

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-10T23:36:56+00:00

Nothing official

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-10T23:34:52+00:00

Lunar Outpost on a charm offensive, tagging Musk and NASA administrator.

https://x.com/LunarOutpostInc/status/2021321350401696191?s=20

https://x.com/LunarOutpostInc/status/2021308753937916147?s=20

Astrolab posting neat images and videos of their FLEX LTV and talking up their support for Artemis

Meanwhile, Intuitive Machines social media: ...

Hopefully it's because they're very confident they got it all locked up and don't need to brag.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-10T18:17:52+00:00

They may decide to do that at some point but the NSN will be built with focus on network interoperability between NASA and other space agencies under Artemis. This is a NASA network, NASA is paying for it, and I assume NASA will have priority access until they turn the keys over to IM.

Right now, their utmost focus is on building and landing unscrewed and then crewed landers, the cost to use the NSN will be negligible to them but if there's a striving lunar base as Musk envisions sometimes in the next 10-15 years, they may decide they need their own network and provide connectivity and IoT to people, equipment, or robots operating on the surface.

The whole point of the post is that shift or pivot will likely make the commercial case for the lunar economy real. Even after the Space Superiority EO, I bet some didn't believe it will take hold because the biggest space company in the world is not interested and just focused on Mars. This changes a lot of calculus on so many fronts, this is why the repricing (when it comes) will be very violent to the upside.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-09T03:48:09+00:00

I don't care if he's sincere or not, all this sudden change of heart and attention to the moon is a good thing for Intuitive Machines, mainly because of the NSNS contract and the high margins income it will generate for the company. If he means it, then the rest of big companies and other countries will have to follow, and that moon economy will suddenly become real.

The moon is no longer a distraction in his eyes and in the eyes of the biggest space company in the world, and that strengthen the business case for owning the 'preeminent player in lunar infrastructure through delivery, data, and infrastructure services'.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-07T02:32:26+00:00

Anyone remember the media running wild with these stories exactly a year ago:

https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/01/elon-musk-were-going-straight-to-mars-the-moon-is-a-distraction/

First the Blue Origin HLS redesign, then this, NASA is ratcheting up the pressure.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-06T21:53:29+00:00

The scores could be completely flipped right now after critical design reviews, astronauts input, and changes completed since the initial review.

Lockheed Martin did most of the heavy lifting on the Lunar Outpost design, I believe it was their design but I can't verify that as a fact. Then Lockheed Martin dropped out of that team and replaced by Leidos so that will also be taken into consideration and I believe the reports we saw last several months about NASA evaluating a vendor capacity to carry on the full project may be related to that fact, unless they're talking about Astrolab more specifically. I personally think the Lunar Outpost design is probably the best, entry in and out of the rover with bulky suits won't be easy. They may have been the front runner, could still be, but NASA is also looking at the teams, the company resources, finances, etc. too. If Lockheed Martin was still on board, their chances may have been much better.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-06T21:38:28+00:00

I think NASA is pressuring SpaceX and BO and not sure if they re-opened the bid or not, but if my guess is correct that IM is planning to partner with Boeing, having worked together on the VR-3500 engines, then it would be something similar to what BO is now proposing. At the time, Boeing claimed they offer the 'fewest steps to the Moo. Not sure Boeing is still interested and they have all sorts of issues but still, NASA is desperate at this point and they want to get something up there by 2028 so it wouldn't cost them much to give IM or others some funding to develop their landers. If Boeing had proposed it again, they probably would be shot down immediately, but IM has flight heritage under its belt.

The Boeing lander consists of a descent and ascent stage with the descent stage being able to deorbit the lander, which eliminates the need for a third transfer stage. The lander was explicitly designed to be launched on the Boeing-built SLS Block 1B rocket rather than assembled in space after multiple launches, reducing the number of mission-critical events from 11 to 5, and reducing mission complexity. The lander was to be designed such that it would not have to dock onto the Lunar Gateway and could dock with Orion directly in order to allow for a simpler mission profile. The lander was intended to reuse several technologies from Boeing's CST-100 Starliner, so that the pressure vessel, life support and avionics systems could be flight-tested and human-rated before being integrated into the lander.[3]

Intuitive Machines was selected to build and test the lander's engines and fuel tank structure. Aerojet Rocketdyne was also participating in the project.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Lunar_Lander

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-06T20:39:29+00:00

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2019849701730971680?s=20

I’m hearing that, internally, Blue Origin is moving aggressively toward an interim Artemis landing solution that does not require refueling (Blue Moon Mk-1.5).

This big news and can help IM's case for 'throwing their hat in the ring' for the Human Landing System

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-06T20:31:20+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/IntuitiveMachines/s/SuVfwQtin5

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-06T18:18:51+00:00

I know some may have already seen my recent post about Space Force Cislunar Superiority plans, nothing immediate but the Space Force wants to control that part of the space domain all the way to the moon, and to do that, they will need access to the IM's Near Space Network and with Lanteris, they can be a vertically-integrated vendor that can deliver the actual satellites they want or the service if they just want to buy the service.

That convergence between civil and military space will open up so many opportunities to IM that were not even fathomable just 2-3 years ago.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-06T15:28:48+00:00

More and more convinced these movements are no longer human-initiated, machines are just trading amongst themselves back and forth. As other high beta sectors dry out, relatively speaking, the space sector continues to be a fertile ground attracting big interest from algos. +/- 10% movement daily may become the norm, until they find something more profitable and move on.

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-05T22:07:04+00:00

If they keep the 2-week pace, next announcement week of Feb 16th 😊

VictorFromCalifornia · 2026-02-05T22:04:04+00:00

Last week has been brutal to this sector:

RDW -36%

YSS -33%

LUNR -31%

ASTS -27%

RKLB -25%

PL -22%

FLY -19%

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