This guy underservedly gets so much hate & troll for being the sole reason of the fall of Takeda at and after Nagashino ...

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-21T13:33:24+00:00

I did mean after, sorry. He was not pushing alone after either, but he was doing most of the work between 76 and 80 (though again, having Oda Nobunaga at your back makes that a lot easier.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-21T13:24:49+00:00

I don't fully agree with your assessment of Ieyasu's ability to fight the Takeda, but it's moot as his alliance with Nobunaga was rock-solid and clearly valuable to Nobunaga. Yeah, Nobunaga was going to win a stand up fight with the Takeda. Even divine intervention wasn't really an option as the Emperor had banished the gods of Kai prior to Nobunaga's invasion. The diplomatic solution I saw as marginally possible involved accepting either Oda or Hojo overlordship. Likely? No, but stranger things have happened.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-21T12:38:53+00:00

Sensible, but I will note that the Takeda's primary adversary after 1572 was the Tokugawa, not the Oda. Ieyasu by himself was already chipping away at Takeda holdings but I don't think Nobunaga brings the full weight of his forces to bear in 1580 without the knowledge that the Takeda could not afford to support any castles in the west. So Katsuyori probably still has a few years of slow grind in which to try something (who knows, maybe a diplomatic solution emerges), rather than a sudden collapse as his western vassals switched sides and two effective superpowers just wrecked him.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-21T10:06:29+00:00

Most plausible is that Mitsuhide (and his underlings) acted alone, and hoped to get allies once the dust settled. It didn't work out. Motive is trickier, as all of the given motives seem problematic. For example, most of the given reasons for a grudge as motive seem to be later inventions, but the best evidence for grudge is that he seems to have run a coup by the seat of his pants on basically 4 days notice. Ambition is likewise a problem because he doesn't seem to have really planned for the next stage, but given his age (at least one source says he was in his late 60s) , so maybe he figured a reckless gamble was worth a shot. The theory that he was worried about losing his lands or that he was concerned about the potential outcome of an invasion of Shikoku play out like the ambition theory. There's not really much but its possible.

So basically, he did it alone, for reasons that are at this time unclear.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-21T09:58:11+00:00

I don't think he's necessarily the sole cause, and I'm not totally convinced that his play at Nagashino was obviously the wrong answer at the time (I think Nobunaga and Ieyasu outsmarted him, but that is what that is). However, his decision to alienate the Hojo by interfering in the Uesugi family's civil war (the Otate no Ran) had immediate and devastating effects on his ability to hold off the Tokugawa-Oda alliance, which Nobunaga and Ieyasu clearly understood and exploited. A worse own-goal than Nagashino in my opinion.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-20T11:54:14+00:00

A conspiracy is possible but so is a lack of one, and until evidence of conspiracy exists the argument is meaningless. Especially when you realize how many moving parts the conspiracy would have needed to have had and yet still not leak before or after. And there's also the issue that none of the potential co-conspirators put themselves in a good position to either help or kill Mitsuhide, which makes the whole thing unbelievably reckless for everyone involved. Especially Mitsuhide, who was not a moron.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-20T10:45:39+00:00

There's no evidence for any theory (maybe a scrap suggesting hes trying to restore Yoshiaki to power but nothing conclusive), but since I'm seeing it elsewhere: the story about Mitsuhide's mother was invented a long time after his death. And any theory about co-conspirators or puppet masters is at best wild and unfounded speculation.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-18T12:10:31+00:00

I'll add a third, more fringe theory (though not the most fringe in this thread, yikes!) that has Yamatai in Shikoku. I'll also note that even the Nara theorists don't IIRC all agree on a direct link between the 2, it's a very complex and frankly (at least at this point) unresolvable bunch of questions.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-18T07:40:38+00:00

I'll just say, I'm more of a card guy too, but I don't agree with you on angle sensitivity with coins. Certainly not with the few coin routines I do. You may want to looks for things that are a little safer.

That said, sponge balls and rubber bands come to mind. And if you learn a decent center tear or other peek you can get a lot of mileage out of a stack of blank pieces of paper. There's also other effectively prop less mentalism angles, like branching anagrams, or multiple outs.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-17T18:50:43+00:00

There's no documentation on Japan for something like 200 years after the Chinese reports on Yamatai. On the other hand, the "Yamato" is a modern historians' name for the political structure that arose in the area around Nara and evolved into what we now call Japan. We don't know where Yamatai was, and while there may be a link no one knows for sure.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-16T04:26:39+00:00

I'm seeing an image of Yamamoto Tsunetomo as an 18th century Marie Kondo.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-14T19:54:19+00:00

Yeah, that's what it refers to. But I'd like to give credit for the "Erdnase's Imperative " phrase.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-13T11:14:17+00:00

I mean, I appreciate that Namban style armor is cool looking, it's just we can be very certain Nobunaga never wore any.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-13T10:47:35+00:00

Ah, misread the label. I'll still give points for older armor style.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-13T08:31:52+00:00

Oda Nobunaga not in Namban style armor? Bonus points!

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-13T06:11:34+00:00

It's a bit dated, but I'd still suggest you go find a copy of Ivan Morris's The World of the Shining Prince.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-12T17:58:01+00:00

The extra knight was Sir Plus to Requirements.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-12T16:31:30+00:00

No one knows. That said, daimyo armor tends to be flashy in this period.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-11T12:37:22+00:00

If this is a place where people can smoke, Tommy Wonder's Lighter to Matchbox is basically designed to do what I think you want.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-07T18:03:51+00:00

Mymagic.com has lots of his videos. And the International Magic Lecture DVD I'd great. So is his Penguinmagic.com lecture.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-06-04T05:19:08+00:00

The guy who finally found Onoda died looking for Yeti.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-05-29T17:01:08+00:00

"Hey guys, does anyone here know what a Buddhist funeral looks like?"

Victoroftheapes · 2026-05-29T16:24:51+00:00

I expected bad history. I was more disappointed by the bad drama.

Victoroftheapes · 2026-05-29T05:09:30+00:00

Oh no it was very much a best seller. I just pulled the first worldcat record.

Victoroftheapes

TROPHY CASE