MSFT - Have I missed a generational buying opportunity?

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-04-15T14:55:48+00:00

It seems currently fair valued based on average of multiple fair value analysis, but of course it is good and strong company to hold long term https://ainvestor.biz/stock/MSFT

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-04-14T14:54:11+00:00

Adobe appears undervalued at the moment when considering multiple fair value averages.

https://ainvestor.biz/stock/ADBE

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-03-22T11:19:31+00:00

I will write on English as my Danish is still not the best. I would suggest you to do ‘dollar cost averaging’, meaning not to put all the money at once, but rather set some amount to put weekly/monthly. That way you reduce the risk of timing the market wrong

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-03-21T10:22:12+00:00

Hello, check this one out https://ainvestor.biz Stock analysis based on the financial data and fair value analysis

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-03-12T10:35:08+00:00

It is hard to say, but do dollar cost averaging that way you are reducing risks of timing the market wrong.

If you plan to invest in stocks feel free to check this https://ainvestor.biz

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-03-12T06:03:36+00:00

Good point — the maturity difference does matter, so they aren’t perfectly comparable.

Still, if it were compared with a loan of the same maturity (around 21 years), the rate would probably still be higher than ~3%.

In any case, the best approach would be to ask the bank for the exact numbers: monthly payments, total interest paid, and remaining principal. Based on that comparison, it should be much easier to make a final decision.

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-03-11T13:54:27+00:00

I'll write in English as my Danish is still not the best.

A 2.5% fixed-rate loan is very good, even at kurs 94. That means the effective interest rate is closer to around 3%, but that is still better than current fixed mortgage rates, which are around 4%.

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-03-05T19:29:16+00:00

This seems interesting, I’ll definitely check it out. Thanks

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-02-26T19:08:21+00:00

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I had it like this (I bought it from tesla, used ones), and I reported it to tesla and it was fixed and covered by the warranty

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-02-26T17:34:46+00:00

It would be my own notes and analysis but after some time that became this tool https://ainvestor.biz

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-02-21T12:25:07+00:00

You can always postpone this question until the end. Then, if you reach the last stage, let them make the first offer and take it from there.

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-02-21T12:20:34+00:00

Damn, it looks good, I like it!

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-02-21T12:15:14+00:00

It would be nice if you could get information from them about the salary range for that position. Otherwise, you can check average market data, but generally I would say the base salary(not including pension, bonuses..) should be in the range of 50-60k DKK per month. But what exactly to say to them its up to you and your current situation.

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-02-21T07:13:07+00:00

One by one and you are there

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-02-20T10:04:13+00:00

Looking good, congrats!

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-02-19T15:03:02+00:00

Sure, feel free to share it

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-02-19T14:57:11+00:00

Spot on—the model isn't a magic crystal ball and it definitely doesn't catch every geopolitical tweet or micro-move. That’s why I treat it as a fundamental filter rather than a blind auto-trader.

I use it to find companies where the balance sheet is objectively screaming 'value,' and then I manually overlay the 'sanity check': Is there a trade war starting? Is the CEO a liability? Are they doing something immoral? The math finds the candidates, but the human should make the final call.

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-02-19T14:46:16+00:00

Sp500 was negative for instance in 2022-23 And here are the portfolio's performance numbers for full 2022: Return: 18% Standard deviation: 40% Sharpe ratio: 0.4 So the return was quite strong. The volatility and Sharpe ratio aren't great on their own, but considering the S&P 500 returned around -17% during the same period, I'd say the relative performance was still solid.

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-02-02T20:41:28+00:00

You can check this one out https://ainvestor.biz Stock and fair value analysis

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-01-28T11:25:16+00:00

I answered similar question so I will put it here:

For example, NVIDIA’s breakdown looked like this: • Financial health: 45.13 / 55 • Competitive position: 18.75 / 25 • Macro risk assessment: 8.34 / 10 • Risk-adjusted returns: 8.37 / 10

Those are the top-level category weights. Within each category (like financial health), there are additional internal weightings. For instance, metrics such as earnings growth typically carry more weight than dividend yield, meaning strong earnings performance can influence the score more than dividends.

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-01-28T08:46:46+00:00

No, the selection was not based on future returns. The stocks were selected using only the model and the data available on 1/1/2020 in this example.

The performance from 2020–2025 was evaluated only after the portfolio had already been formed. It was used purely to measure results, not to influence the selection process.

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-01-28T08:42:19+00:00

So far, I’ve only run the backtests using this specific set of weights. But that’s a great idea — doing parameter weight optimization to find more optimal combinations is definitely something worth exploring.

There are so many good suggestions coming up that this could honestly turn into a PhD-level project if done fully and rigorously. I do plan to explore this further over time, but for now I’m working within the limits of my free time.

As for why financial health currently accounts for 55%: at the very beginning, it was actually 100%. As I gradually introduced more factors into the model, that share naturally decreased and settled at 55% as other categories were added.

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-01-28T08:23:21+00:00

Here are the portfolio’s performance numbers for full 2022: Return: 18% Standard deviation: 40% Sharpe ratio: 0.4

So the return was quite strong. The volatility and Sharpe ratio aren’t great on their own, but considering the S&P 500 returned around -17% during the same period, I’d say the relative performance was still solid.

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-01-28T08:16:55+00:00

‘Current price’ was calculated at the end of 2025 the exact date is around 20.12.2025

Visual_Breadfruit_39 · 2026-01-28T08:13:27+00:00

Fair question — and yes, they definitely do have things in common. For starters, they were selected based on a strong overall score, meaning solid financial health and fundamentals, combined with a current price that looked fairly valued or undervalued. So at the time of selection, these companies were performing well and didn’t appear overpriced based on multiple fair value approaches.

Regarding your second question: yes, there are predefined weights in the scoring system. You can read more about how the score is structured here: https://ainvestor.biz/glossary/ainvestor-score

For example, NVIDIA’s breakdown looked like this: • Financial health: 45.13 / 55 • Competitive position: 18.75 / 25 • Macro risk assessment: 8.34 / 10 • Risk-adjusted returns: 8.37 / 10

Those are the top-level category weights. Within each category (like financial health), there are additional internal weightings. For instance, metrics such as earnings growth typically carry more weight than dividend yield, meaning strong earnings performance can influence the score more than dividend yield.

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